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Expected Value of Postflop-Shoves
IntroductionIn this article
- Estimating villain's range in a postflop push situation
- Determining EV using the estimated range
- General model for postflop EV calculation with variable Fold Equity
Players often discuss the EV of preflop shoves. However, we may also apply the EV equation to postflop decisions. Assuming there are N possible outcomes, EV is given by:
Suppose we have a heads-up pot with two outcomes – our opponent folds, or he calls. To determine the probability of each outcome, we must dissect his range to determine how many hand combinations it currently contains, and how many of these hands we will fold out with a shove. The reward of him folding is the current pot size, and the “reward” of him calling is itself an expected value calculation that will depend on our equity against his calling range.
Let’s now get specific, and look at such a calculation in a recently played hand. We will then analyze the function relating expected value to fold equity.
$35 180-man SNG - Blinds $25-$50
Preflop: Hero is on the button with
4 folds, MP2 calls $50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $175, 2 folds, MP2 calls $125
Flop: ($425) (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $220, MP2 calls $220
Turn: ($865) (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero?
Villain has $1200 left in his stack, and we have him covered. Our question is: What is the EV of semi-bluff shoving?
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