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StrategySit & Go

Expected Value of Postflop-Shoves

Introduction

In this article
  • Estimating villain's range in a postflop push situation
  • Determining EV using the estimated range
  • General model for postflop EV calculation with variable Fold Equity

Players often discuss the EV of preflop shoves. However, we may also apply the EV equation to postflop decisions. Assuming there are N possible outcomes, EV is given by:

Suppose we have a heads-up pot with two outcomes – our opponent folds, or he calls. To determine the probability of each outcome, we must dissect his range to determine how many hand combinations it currently contains, and how many of these hands we will fold out with a shove. The reward of him folding is the current pot size, and the “reward” of him calling is itself an expected value calculation that will depend on our equity against his calling range.

Let’s now get specific, and look at such a calculation in a recently played hand. We will then analyze the function relating expected value to fold equity.

Example: EV of Turn Semi-Bluff Shove

$35 180-man SNG - Blinds $25-$50

Preflop: Hero is on the button with QsJs
4 folds, MP2 calls $50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $175, 2 folds, MP2 calls $125

Flop: ($425) 2s5s9d (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $220, MP2 calls $220

Turn: ($865) Kh (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero?

Villain has $1200 left in his stack, and we have him covered. Our question is: What is the EV of semi-bluff shoving?

 

That's not the entire article...

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Comments (3)

#1 Gerovit, 27 Nov 11 14:20

Very nice please rewrite all strategy articles

#2 vahan4, 27 Aug 13 10:49

I can't see the article, but just did some calculations, and am I right that the Hero has about 3 times more chip EV while pushing than checking? Also the villain has to fold with any hand?

#3 hassux, 25 Jan 16 21:39

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