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Future Game Simulation (1): IntroductionBefore reading this lesson, you should have read through the previous modules, in particular the one on Chip Value. It is assumed you have read the Fundamentals of the ICM and are aware of the risk premium concept.
By now you should have a general idea on how the chip counts correspond to monetary stack values and how to use this knowledge to make informed decisions, especially in preflop all-in situations.
In this lesson you will learn how to tweak the resulting model in line with your reads, how to deal with its inherent limitations, and where even the higher generation model cannot go. Most of all, however, you will see how your decisions in a given spot may influence your future situations, and you will learn how to take advantage of that knowledge.
Start with the ICM-based Nash rangesAs most applications of stack valuation models involve preflop pushing/folding dilemmas, it is further assumed that this is the kind of spot in question.
Push/fold decisions in a SNG are usually assessed using the ICM model. The standard procedure is to employ dedicated software, such as HoldemResources Calculator, to calculate Nash calling and pushing ranges based on stack sizes and payout structure. Results also encompass the EV of pushing/calling with every possible holding.
|Results of a simple ICM calculation in HRC|
Of course, this calculation assumes that your opponents are playing Nash ranges as well. There is a twofold problem resulting from this assumption. Firstly, in most cases at least some of your opponents are either not knowledgeable enough to play close to the Nash solution or have decided to step away for some reason, e.g. due to assumptions about your game. That could be a relatively minor problem in a cash game, as every deviation from the equilibrium by one of your opponents increases your EV. In a SNG however – and that is the second part of the problem – an opponent playing too loose in certain spots can decrease both his equity as well as yours, effectively transferring it to all the other players at the table.
To deal with that, you need to adjust the Nash ranges as best you can, according to your reads. A recalculation in the software with the ranges manually adjusted should provide you with results that are impervious to limitations of the Nash equilibrium part of the model. However, the inherent limitations of the Independent Chip Model itself still influence the calculations.
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