Future Game Simulation

  • Sit and Go
  • SNG
(8 Votes) 10450

Description

In the latest video from lessthanthreee, we are taken through a future game simulation which will aim to predict certain elements of the ICM according to your style of play.

Tags

ICM Theory Video

Comments (11)

newest first
  • EuanM

    #1

    Enjoy the latest video with our Sit & Go expert lessthanthreee.

    With the assistance of Pzhon, we are given a presentation which explores future game simulation in the ICM.

    We hope you have fun and leave feedback for the coaches!
  • Bobbs

    #2

    I really like this video but there are some flaws you should think about.

    1.) You might think that it is a good approximation to use your equity against the BB calling range as an estimate BUT even though the BB has the widest calling range, it is way more likely to get called by one of the other tighter players.
    Thinking about your second example, you will get called 52% with the following ranges:
    BB 20%
    SB 18%
    BU 11%
    CO 10%

    Thus, if you get called, it will NOT be the BB 2/3 of the time. (20%/59% as approximation)
    Therefore you should consider playing your J9s on average against a tighter range like maybe 14%.

    2.) In the second example you are disregarding the possibility that you*ll get a good enough hand to push UTG. You are saying that you are calculating the negative Edge for UTG+2 but actually you are again calculating your equity loss UTG+1.

    Think about it. If you are doing this calculation for say some borderline hand on the BU, you will get the same -.7 edge disregarding all the good upcoming opportunities.


    Keep up the good work!
  • Tim64

    #3

    This is great stuff as always. 2 thoughts:

    1. Do we need to consider the possibility of waking up with a big hand in BB/SB when we don't take the -EV utg push? If so, at what stage do we do this?

    2. FGS in this vid mainly looks at the effect of 'cost of posting' as an individual factor in SnGs.

    Is it overcomplicating matters to consider the FGS effect of other factors, such as for example the effect of pushing on subsequent call ranges? I.e. call ranges aren't static in practice. If villain shoves the last 3 BUs into your BB, you are more likely to make a loose call the fourth time (because you estimate their push range as wider than on the first hand).

    Similarly, making loose calls vs regs likely reduces their push ranges in future games (either the same SnG or subsequent ones).

    Is there any way to establish which factors should have the biggest impact on our decisions?
  • DonCorleone369

    #4

    brilliant video ;) sick calculations :D keep up the good work! ;)
  • Gerovit

    #5

    Your cost of posting assumes that when you hit the blinds everyone will push Nash ranges.
    Problem with this is obvious and same problem has SNG Solver, program that calculates FGS in exact same way as you did it, only it's doing it for three future rounds of Nash pushes.
    Estimation of BU and SB ranges when you are on BB change things dramatically and are most important factors to consider, since they shove highest % of times.
  • dydukas

    #6

    SnG Solver will have editable ranges in the future. That will be the nuts. :)
    It already has HH importing feature. Very easy to use.

    Nevertheless, the video is great and it always helps to make some calculations manually to understand the method thoroughly.
  • Rolo23

    #7

    #2 is right
  • Takeiteazy

    #8

    havent even watched yet but i know its good
  • braminc

    #9

    Also I just want to add/ask... I agree with the flaws mentioned above (although I don't think it makes any of the calculations useless or anything...)

    So, would it be safe to assume the future game issue of lost FE would be BIGGER factor than the avg change in the cost of posting? I realize this will never be a calculable issue, but for theory's sake?
    Also same could be said about GAINED FE in spots where you become chipleader and can dominate future orbits?
  • deVall3y

    #10

    Very interesting video
  • bradomurder

    #11

    do you have to manually put in the stacks for the next hand when we fold and the blinds move?