Welcoming Melanie - Ace-King Review

  • MTT
  • MTT
  • $5200
  • Fullring
(43 Votes) 15290

Description

Melanie Weisner presents the re-player review offering commentary & thoughts relating to one scenario where the dealt hand is Ace-King.

Tags

hand history review Live Video MTT Multi Table Tournament Multi-Table Tournament Multitable Tournament tournament

Comments (46)

newest first
  • EuanM

    #1

    Please give a warm welcome as Melanie presents the first production for the PokerStrategy.com Community. Enjoy the re-player tournament review - your thoughts & feedback are welcomed as always!
  • sirilidion

    #2

    the board is so coordinated that he can rep a good amount of stronger hands which way I would be more on the save side and check call espacially against a young russian reg. I don't know if this is fair asumsion but I feel like young russian regs are in general more compable of making such a bluff in general.
  • kingpowl

    #3

    it would be totally insane to shove 77 since your range is not capped and he cannot assume your herocalling worse

    imo you have to bet/snapcall against the player u described

    you can bet/fold against a bad player / station but when u are betting this river against a competent and agressive player u have to bet/call. most of the value of the bet against a good player is in inducing a shove.
  • SolidSilver

    #4

    warm welcome :)
  • kingpowl

    #5

    should watch the whole video first :}

    good math based analysis but i still dislike the bet if u dont call.

    c/c > b/c > b/f > c/f
  • DaNuts90

    #6

    very interessting thought process :)
  • kiromanAAKK

    #7

    Hello and welcome beauty ;)
  • vesparax

    #8

    pls learn me to play HU <3 uhuhuuh
  • vanman1968RNMD

    #9

    I hate the river bet by you, and the shove by oppo is what I would do with the nut blocker. All this could be avoided with the check call. But you only have a decision to make if he over bet shoves. If thats the decision you can still fold and have a better stack than trying to value bet on a very very bad board.
    I have just heard he had A10 for the bluff, which is what I would of thought, but I would of folded if I checked and he shoved, but I call anything other than a shove.
    Its a good breakdown Mel, but next time just check call !!!!!
  • Swist87

    #10

    amazing ;)
  • imfromsweden007

    #11

    Nice video actually, good job
  • MITStudent

    #12

    #5 exactly!
  • LetsGambleBaby

    #13

    i liked the video and your thought process AND welcome to PS, nice pics of you :) GL! Hope to see some more vids
  • muel294

    #14

    Like! Really clear and broken down very well.More please :)
  • Frietje1986

    #15

    Very smart thinking. I like it!
  • SunsetatRio

    #16

    bubble blabla and surely she had 30min after river for their thinking...

    why not allin after turn because of folding on river and she said it: she hates bluff ;)

    why not check/ call on river, if you bet nearly pot on turn and she asked herself about he is a bluffer (she was talking about it a lot of time!)?

    on other hand i see much more bad boards development...
    result was: half stack is lost for nothing (no showdown) in one game, talking about that...

    And what would happen if he made min. raise after river? She called or fold? With call: nice broken down of 2/3 stack? Or she would talking again 30min about a bluff or not before folding or calling it and probably were comitted to call a min raise?

    Result: she has not good chip balance!
  • turoo

    #17

    dont embarrass yourselves guys..

    also, please stop using a macbook w/o an external mouse :P
  • SunsetatRio

    #18

    #15 right. smart thinking with bad chip balance (no check and call on river but a bet nearly pot again like in turn), never good...
  • mineriva

    #19

    Melanie this is the most impressive video I have seen from PS.com in a long time.

    Probably the best 1st video I have seen from any coach in 4 years.
  • Cardbender

    #21

    great information!

    I think I would have called. :)
  • Bzzz2906

    #22

    River bet too big. BC > XC. He can turn a lot of hands into a bluff and he doesn't have a big value range.
  • onmybike

    #25

    Welcome melanie. nice first vid.

    there is only one think what is really bad imo. If you are on the river and have normally a diffecult decision for bet/?? or play check/call the first thing you have to solve before doing anything is if you play bet/call or bet/fold imo. And when you do that you come too the conclussion that it would be close i think because he is cappable of bluffing and then the most +EV thing to do is play check/call (or bet/call if you think he will bluf a lot here)
  • cohkka

    #27

    sup callisto :)
  • Sommersommer

    #28

    NiceNice, scan peopl´s head. Thank you....that´s my profession.
  • mbml

    #29

    do people really defend so many speculative hands vs a UTG raise?

    i don't even see that in a FR cash game, let alone a tourney where stacks are even shallower.

    especially when you are perceived as a tough player
  • mbml

    #30

    Hm I think given that he let you know about his knowledge of blocker bluffs and him being a Russian you have to call. I agree that this should be a bet/fold against others though.

    Then again I'm really surprised to see ATo here, I thought most people won't flat even AJo vs a UTG raise here but I could be wrong. We would still be looking at 3 combos of AdQx though
  • SunsetatRio

    #31

    Laughing at villains allin... Take down your clothes, harhar...
  • SunsetatRio

    #32

    #30 or set 7...
  • johhnyEVplus

    #33

    Bad played... dont like it ;(
  • EnterG

    #34

    Hi girl and welcome.In this hand you could not have the nuts.I think you wouldn't open 9d10d from UTG and play it this way.Since villain has Ad he knows that you don't have the nut flush.So he had an easier bluff to do with a shove on river.Also from your play look like you have a better hand than he does.It's also an EPT which nobody wants to be kicked out.His stack is larger than yours so if you called the shove villain wouldn't get out of the tournament.
    Good bluff IMO since he had the Ad.
  • downonluck

    #35

    Hello Malanie,
    When arriving at this river decition you have made some really thorrow thoughts on how the villains actions must be interpreted. At the same time the villain knows these things:
    - how his actions will be interpreted by you
    - he knows you know he gives you the odds
    - he knows you know he knows he is facing strength
    He knows that these factors may actually increase the likeliness that the bluff might actually be possible. I sometimes feel bluffs can be more likely to succeed with somewhat less fold equity based on the notion that a person just wouldnt bluff and give such a great price on the call.
    Your discussion on basian probality is healthy but your assumptions can never be this clear. If we walk through these 5 steps we have
    1) I agree
    2) I agree
    3) Here I think that a discussion in Mike Caro's book of poker tells may be just as valuable as your rather sober insight. Often people just do things on a whim (Caro's law of loose wiring). He finds himself in this spot and on a whim desides to turn his hand into a bluff - I think that the main reason he even goes down this path is that he respects your game a lot and that he feels that you in return must give him credit when he plays at you this way. Another thing that may drive the guy towards following through with his bluff is that he still has close to 27000 when he is called. Lastly he has a big chipstack - maybe he is a littly more playful than he would be in an average tournament situation.
    4) Here the good odds he gives may just as well be a motivating factor for him to follow through with the bluff - it makes the bluff way more unlikely and cunning
    5) I think that when you start talking to him about his hand he doesn't want to tell you he has the Ad. He is just in that moment unable to lie about his hand. I think his positive attitute towards you and the absurdity of the fact that he finds himself in this position makes him almost wanting to laugh out loud. Instead he manages to say he has "this card" - it is all he can manage in that spot. He would imo not react this way should he happen to also hold a second diamond.
    To summarize - thanks for an inspiring video. Your approach to the situation is really thorrough and analytical and gives us a view into another world. I don't know if this comment is helpful, but i really felt that all he represented at the end was diamonds and that the information obtained by you was significant enough to point towards a call.
    Untill next time :-)
  • Hellstricker

    #36

    Just a simple shove on turn or bet call on river.
  • Pawelgracz

    #37

    I like your analise. I would not consider x/call otr as it is lost value. I do not think you need to balance or even have an x/calling range otr in this spot. I like your play since the value of tournement life is very high especialy in such a soft tournamend and a live one. I also do not like villians bluff, it may be slightly profitable, but just not worth the investment. The biggest minus is that he is russian and russians make such a playes more often, so imo you need to respest him as a player a lot to fold there and I am not sure if it is the case+ I do not know how the fact that u r a women effects his decition. I think most people advising x/c or b/c here w/o argiuments is results oriented. Guyes it is 40 minuts vidio abaut one hand, one line responds when u know the result have no value imao. Very good video look foreward 4 next ones, since it's rare to see this deep inside in most mtt vidios.
  • HasiU888

    #38

    Thank you for your video. From my point of view villians preflop range is

    1) sc
    2)pocket pair
    or
    3) AK(s)-AQ(s)

    If he is a good player he may intend to get a big pot with implied odds or he keeps dominated hand like KQs, AJs in the hand.

    As he just called on the flop I think he does not have a sc.

    When he calls the turn I think it is quite probable that he does not have a set which he may raise on a drawy doard. This leads to the assumption that he has AQ(s). He may call for pot-control being ahead against AJs and being behind against all other hands.

    At this point I would ask myself if villian is a good player. To flat call an UTG raiser with a big stack with some short/big stacks behind, inducing
    squeezes is not very profitable in my opinion. As a consequence I would not give him too much credit for thinking.

    On the river I think a bad player would bluff easier because a good player would know that you have to call because of the pot odds. I think villian does not think so far as you described in your video, he just sees that he is behind after you barreld 3 times and takes the third diamand and his Ad to get the pot.

    In addition I would assume that this player has not a knowledge of reverse psychology. When he tells the truth which is most probable in my opinion he informs you that the does not have another diamand but only this card. He tells you that he bluffs you and you can not call him. Very easy thinking. A good player would use this words to make you call but not a player who flat calls AQ(s) preflop.

    Therefore I would call which is anyway easy to say when you know the result.
  • carloscampos

    #39

    nit
  • mnl1337

    #40

    nice vid. more pls :)
  • fortunewheel

    #41

    nice thought process , still like the fold after hearing your arguments.
  • AugustusCaesar

    #42

    Did you use the words Bayesian Probability ? I am impressed :)
  • Hariseldon5438

    #43

    The thing I like most about the hand is the fact that he really got into your head making you think he is actually less likely to be bluffing which is exactly what he wanted.
    I really have to give him credit for that and therefore consider this a really strong play although it probably did not change the outcome in this case but his talk might make you fold even better hands because they are essentially the same hand.

    But I think you played the hand fine as well considering the information you had at the table just were unlucky not to know what he is capable of.
  • Iwantunow

    #44

    lol the dude telling you top2 and then telling you toppair? haha wtf?? snapcall obv
  • Iwantunow

    #45

    ''From my point of view villians preflop range is

    1) sc
    2)pocket pair
    or
    3) AK(s)-AQ(s)''

    do you know that villain? how can you say thats his calling range?
    I think she said she had an aggro simage,ya? so the calling range will probably be wider.
    On top of that they both were almost 100BB deep @ mbml so calling ranges are wider than 30-40BB... its not even a 2.5x Openraise either...

    her image, stacksizes and her openraise let me believe that his calling range will be way wider than just PPs,SCs and AQ_AJ.

    Also, we
  • Iwantunow

    #46

    *her openraise size
  • kubaL

    #47

    It's easy decision when you hit 2 pair with AK on flop, but chance of that is rather small.
  • Dracsharp

    #48

    Don't really like it, but few good ideas here and there.

    He could have very oddly played
    ak (4) aa (1) kk (1) 77 (3) 88 (3)

    That beats us

    He could have legit Aqs, maybe Ajs, i rather doubt big drawing hands with the shortstacks behind him.

    Most likely Adqd(1) that beats us versus some middle pairs or weak aces shove because it can no longer call.

    Bet 1/3 pot / C
  • Flopper8

    #49

    Did he buy you a drink afterwards or what? ;-)
  • 4soul

    #50

    I was totally emply into this video and i have my theory. If i am in paid places i will definelly call this russian guy if i will 60% be shure that he beat me. But with top 2 definelly call....after he show the Ace of diamond because for shure want to sensibilise you with that virtual nuts sentiment....
    I am still thinking what i should to if i were there AQo also....probably that hand could force you check/call in the river....but nor more than 80% of the pot. I like this analyse....it's preety obviosly that we have a strong woman....only women could analyse one hand into more than 40minutes. Thanks a lot Melanie for gaving us this strong lesson and hold on...next time will come 2 of spades in the river :D!