Logic Knot: Turn Continuation Bets

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Boomer starts a new mini-series as part of Logic Knot looking exclusively at Turn Play and the factors which influence whether and with what cards we Turn C-Bet


Contibet Logic Knot series Theory Video turn

Comments (5)

newest first
  • Boomer2k10


    Hi Everyone

    PLease enjoy may latest Logic Knot Theory Video on Turn Continuation Betting in Poistion

    If you have any comments/questions please leave them below
  • gersiL


    interesting vid, thank you
  • m3ta


    if Villian can bet the river with a frqz of 80.5%(with a range that makes us have an EV of 0[at this point we have effectively lost the hand]) we are indifferent to calling the turn( assuming we win every time he checks back).
  • MyLady17


    Hello Boomer, i watch every theorie based video of you, but this time i did not understand a few things.

    How do you get the "optimal" ratio of valuekombinations to bluffs? On the River it is very easy because semibluffs either got there or are dead with 0%. So the optimal ratio of valuebets and bluffs is easy to calculate. But on the Turn there is a massive difference, because semibluffs have 16-20% Equity and on the River there is also an Opportunity to check back.

    Please try to teach me the mathematics behind that :)
  • Boomer2k10


    At best it's an approximation, there are 2 points to consider:

    1) The immediate price your opponent is getting to call the turn

    This assumes that you bet the turn and shut down 100% of the time which obviously isn't true

    2) The total cost your opponent is facing to call turn and river

    This assumes if you bet the turn you're going to bet the river

    Obviously neither of these ratios is going to be perfect however the latter makes a bit more sense to head towards to due to leverage concerns and the fact we are going to bet the river the majority of the time and the majority of our range is still value. Additionally, as you've mentioned, even if you're bluffing on the turn much of the time you will have some degree of equity which can factor in to a higher bluffing ratio.

    The Turn C-Bet essentially threatens your opponent with another bet AND we have to make him indifferent to calling turn and river.

    It's also why Flop Bluff-Raising ratios are a lot higher than the 12.5% an immediate calculation would give us. You've got more equity in the hand and you're threatening future action.

    After all that, however, I'm not saying it's a 100% scentific conclusion (nothing aside from perfect GTO is) but I think it's a pretty good model to go by