Mathematical Concepts for NL Hold'em - Part 1

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Description

In the first part of his new series "Mathematical Concepts for NL Hold'em", Hasenbraten talks about hand range, equity and EV calculations.

Tags

Mathematics for NoLimit series Theory Video

Comments (55)

newest first
  • BigAndy

    #1

    First
  • dobleskrasota

    #2

    Хмм.. печально что не на русском)
  • valui

    #3

    перевод будет?
  • RubyBlackstein

    #4

    +1
  • Carambol80

    #5

    все лучшее как всегда детям... как всегда американским
  • Sentel

    #6

    Learn English guys! :)
  • Turbomaesch

    #7

    +2
  • Mellowfellovv

    #8

    Язык то примитивный. Причем у меня такое ощущение, что говорит не носитель языка
  • Vovan23mvp

    #9

    Hasenbraten - немец, поэтому и ощущение такое =)
  • Sentel

    #10

    Да, немцы хорошо знают английский, плюс говорят понятно нашему уху.
  • AGReSSoR007

    #11

    все у кого не родной английский говорят проше для ушей для кого он не родной. вот я закрутил
  • Brabuz

    #12

    переведите плз !!!!!! ))))
  • rajunah

    #13

    to #8
    не, нормально всё :)
  • AugustusCaesar

    #14

    An unbelievably great video Mr .. As a probability theory student at the uni I really enjoyed that you actually used some nice formulas for E(X) and Var(X) .. Very nice .. Maybe you could explain the Risk of Ruin more, mainly with the relationship to BRM .. Anyway, a very very great video with tons of valueable information to those who are sort of afraid of numbers
  • sadrick555

    #15

    да ето же виндосовский говорилка )))
  • KidPokersKid

    #16

    I am really liking this new "class room" type of approach that PS has showed in the latest videos. Keep it up!
  • dallievas

    #17

    So long waited.Nice video.Thanks.
    You choose first EV calcs not the simplest ones to keep us in tone lol.
    Waiting next one.
  • PRPN80

    #18

    отличное видео
  • Alexalw

    #19

    Очень хорошее видео
  • lepota

    #20

    переведите плиз :)
  • Tim64

    #21

    Good work, hasenbraten. Very clear presentation for those of us who struggle with the numbers :o)
  • agonia

    #22

    А что на русском форуме нельзя было выложить с переводом?
  • z4tz

    #23

    Really nice video. Not sure though if im missing something in the standard deviation calculation or your number is wrong. i get it to $1413 in the first example.
    sqrt((-2000-1408.2)^2*0.14524+(2000-1408.2)^2*0.84932+(0-1408.2)^2*0.00544)
    Did i miss anything?
  • isqueto

    #24

    marvelous video !! Exelent!!! BRAVOOOO!!! BRAVISIMO!!!
  • MorFMaister

    #25

    если некому, могу перевести, у меня времени куча.
  • Amoondre

    #26

    @z4tz that is because you're counting with more precise figures. In example, he was counting with 85%/15%, therefore 2000*0.85-2000*0.15 = 1400
  • Marou

    #27

    A verry nice video, looking forward for the next one. Verry usefull when you want to take a look back to what you did but i expect we'll get some math tools that we can use directly ingame (like this "fast" key EV calculation)
  • prevolsek

    #28

    Great video!
  • fishtoeat

    #29

    you made a mistake i think, at your example at 36:00, cause at the 2nd case he is actually lost 2$ from the start, and at the last case he is only 2$ up from the start. so correct it would be: -3$*0,5+-2$*0,5*0,5+2$*0,5*0,5= -1,5$
    hope i did no mistake;)
  • hasenbraten

    #30

    no, you forget he first wins 4$ in case he flips heads first

    so for the first step its
    0.5*-3 + 0.5*1
    and additionally to that you get
    +0.5*(for flipping heads)0.5*(4+0)
    which equals alltogether
    0.5*-3+0.5+0.25*4 = -1.5 + 0.5 + 1 = 0
  • Sevilla

    #31

    I like this vid and really am looking forward to see the rest!

    Small mistake in the last example (1:05)?
    I think it should be:
    Win = (95+95+16,5)BB = 206,5
    The 5BB they invested preflop are included in the 16,5 BB pot at the flop.
  • Pashok16

    #32

    #16 ну так чего ждешь-то...
    будет очень интересно посмотреть на русском
  • z4tz

    #33

    @amoondre. I tried calculating with the same precision as stated and still not correct so.
  • dolemar

    #34

    good work :) thx
  • Killroan

    #35

    I loled hard at x1 is gonna be heads and x2 is gonna be not heads. Perfect vid, thanks a lot
  • Robmeister

    #36

    Finally I can watch it!!! Especially for this series I started playing poker again (not that I quit, but I´m currently in South America)... ans I´m not dissapointed. Good job!!!
  • Shevtshenko

    #37

    I wonder how you counted the equity of 66 against QQ+, AK, from turn to river? I can't see a way to do that with equilator...
  • 4bur

    #38

    Thanks! Never hurts to relearn the basics!
  • Kogtistiy

    #39

    Будет, перевод, будет - наберитесь терпения :)
  • xero100

    #40

    im in love with math, even I hated at school
  • Jhanr

    #41

    Excelente, explicado de una manera muy sencilla. Estas son las bases para entender la estrategia que debemos usar o que inclusive ya estamos usando para tener ganancias a largo plazo. Congratulations!
  • Teyiebuns

    #42

    Thank you for your video and the time you have put in, I managed to watch all of it (just!) and really enjoyed it, and learnt something! Off to part 2 now...
  • jonbondavid

    #43

    Mistake at 31min
    The formula is wrong

    -1*0.5 + 1*1/6 + 2*1/6 + 3.5*1/6 = 7/12
  • jonbondavid

    #44

    Mistake at 36min
    The formula is wrong again

    -3*0.5 + ( 8*0.25 + 4*0.25 ) = 1.5

    It´s logical
    50% of the time u lose 3$
    50% of the time u win 4$ with the option to win 4$ more.

    Definitely a positive Equity Game
  • jonbondavid

    #45

    @Sevilla
    To my surprise the last mistake is correct.

    Flop: 16.5 BB

    14BB+36BB+95BB = 145BB

    We know that the button will call
    So we add the rest of his stack of 59BB ( 95-36 = 59 )

    145BB + 59BB = 204BB

    204BB + the Pot of 16.5BB = 220.5BB

    220.5BB + 81BB = 301.5BB

    81BB / 301.5BB = .2686 -> ~27%

    Bravo Hasenbraten, you did one right
  • jonbondavid

    #46

    Last Example, not mistake :-)
  • jonbondavid

    #47

    And another one!
    At 48min, the first part of the EV calculation.

    If you calculate the Equity with 15/51 or 0.294 you exclude the calls of the Blinds. So why are you including them in the Equliator.

    If you include them, you have also to include 10BB of the SB and 5BB of the BB for their call, so adding another 15BB

    That makes 15/66 or 0.227
  • hasenbraten

    #48

    @min31: this is not a real misstake, rather a missunderstanding. by "winning" 1$ i actually mean that he first gets pays 1$ he doesnt own anymore. He then wins 1$ so his total result is -1$ he pays +1$ he wins, ergo his balance does not change. sorry for not pointing that out clearly enough.
    36 you corrected yourself
    to 48: this is pretty much a made-up example onto which i later follow up as not beeing a good example for this case, therefore i was pretty much just giving the imediate needed equity for the call but to also argue a bit from the game-point of view did include possible holdings for everybody not just the mp. you are right the 2nd number might also have been included, but the take-home message from that part simply is that you can NOT just use a simple EV-calculation like this to solve this situation, so i didnt even try that completly in the beginning, sorry if you didnt get that, hope its clear now. its beeing pointed out on the slide after the next where i do say one of the main misstakes simply is that hero does not only not close the action but its even very likely there is going to be action behind.
  • jonbondavid

    #49

    @31min: The EV is 7/12 not 1/12

    @36min: The EV is 1.5 not 0

    Your EV is break even
    My is positive EV
  • igrbavac

    #50

    Very good ! Although I knew pretty much everything still cleared some things so I can more efficiently calculate EV calls...
    Thanks
  • Tim64

    #51

    ticked.
  • kevin0685

    #52

    36min
    -3*0.5= -1.5
    And then for the next sum I think it is only multiplied by 0.5 because after the first flip your dollar is a fact and not probability.
    1*0.5= 0.5
    5*0.25= 1.25
    End result EV+ 0.25

    grtz nice video
  • adragonro

    #53

    Nice Video!
    I'm studying Statistics and find it interesting to see Math combined with Poker! *thumbs-up*

    @kevin0685

    You can take the $1 from the "Head-path", but then u could only take $4 from the 2nd "Head-path". The result is then EV=$0. ;)
  • jawoftheox

    #54

    Loved 3.3 Variance part, about standard deviation and risk of ruin. A light bulb flashed over my head :D
  • Laci24

    #55

    Really good vid! Thank you!