{"id":21760,"date":"2008-11-16T09:26:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-16T09:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/zh\/strategy\/83\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T06:46:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T06:46:02","slug":"83","status":"publish","type":"strategy","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/zh\/strategy\/poker-psychology\/83\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f7c\u5f97\u539f\u7406"},"content":{"rendered":"

彼得原理<\/h1>

在经济学中存在一个所谓的\"彼得原理\"。说的是，一个公司职员会被一直提升到一个他再也不能有所发展的位置为止, 然后就待在这位置上不动了。这个原理可以同样转移到政府公务员身上。如果有人曾经为公务员的行为感到过愤恼，就明白我的所指了。<\/p>

我们以这个原则的大部分内容正确为出发点，就会引向一种消极的观念。也就是说，我们社会的各个窗口都是被那些毫无能力的人所占据着。对于社会批评家来说这种想法可是求之不得的。<\/p>

我个人认为，这个原理基本上是有些道理的，它也为不同的想法提供了一个很好的出发点。尽管如此，我们的社会岗位可能还是被大多数有能力，但未被提拔的人所占据着。原因有 a) 位于所在职位时间还不够长，b)能力被低估 c) 在高层没有关系帮助自己提拔。<\/p>

 <\/p>

针对扑克会有这样的问题：<\/p>

 <\/p>

一些人在能力不及的级别上游戏<\/b><\/h1>

\n  <\/p>

他们一步一步的爬到了现在的级别上。却在这个级别上被更强的对手打败了。唯一正确的一步就是重新回到以前的可以获胜的级别。可是这种后退当然是不情愿的。对于有些人来说，这可能还会造成极大的心理问题。好像比起来承认自己失败，他更愿意失去钱。<\/p>

这当然是毫无意义的。一方面，如果一直向上的升级，然后碰到了对手，这并不是什么真正的失败。我们不能期待，什么时候一下把世界级的玩家打败。扑克技巧的不断发展和成熟需要很长时间。另一方面， 不要把一个失败认为是丢脸的是。对失败的评价依赖于社会的\"失败文化\"。 在德国犯错误经常会被嘲笑，而学识高于其他人的也要忍着。（我和你刚说过的啊！）在美国具有勇气是被赞扬的。（对于你的大胆勇气你会赢得尊重。别人会说，下次一定可以成功的！）<\/p>

<\/p>

有些人降低了赢牌机率<\/b><\/h1>

\n  <\/p>

这是彼得原则的一个削弱的形式。假设你在10\/20美元的级别上每小时赚得2个大注额(big bets)。提升到15\/30美元时，每小时变成只赚了一个大注额(big bet)。利润下降了。这种情况当然要好于a 的情形。并且真正的赢牌机率也是通过一定多的手数才能得出的。也就是说，可能在刚升到一个注限级别的时候经历了超乎一般的坏运气。在此我只想指出这种现象。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6240\u8c13\u7684\"\u5f7c\u5f97\u539f\u7406\"\u3002\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u804c\u5458\u4f1a\u88ab\u4e00\u76f4\u63d0\u5347\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ed6\u518d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6709\u6240\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e3a\u6b62, \u7136\u540e\u5c31\u5f85\u5728\u8fd9\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u4e0d\u52a8\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":""},"strategy_category":[206],"strategy_level":[10],"class_list":["post-21760","strategy","type-strategy","status-publish","hentry","strategy_category-poker-psychology-"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u5f7c\u5f97\u539f\u7406 - Pokerstrategy Chinese<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/zh\/strategy\/poker-psychology\/83\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u5f7c\u5f97\u539f\u7406 - 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