{"id":21866,"date":"2008-11-04T19:38:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-04T19:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/zh\/strategy\/1378\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T06:54:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T06:54:03","slug":"1378","status":"publish","type":"strategy","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/zh\/strategy\/weekly-sng\/1378\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6839\u636e\u5bf9\u624bATS(Attempt-to-Steal)\u6570\u636e\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u6253\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"

根据对手ATS(Attempt-to-Steal)数据来决定打法 <\/h1>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
» 专题栏目<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n \n<\/p>

根据对手ATS数据来决定打法<\/h1>

\n作者 Bobbs<\/i>\n<\/p>

\n我们现在处在盲注位置，并且知道对手的ATS数据，也知道对方是一个老手，他在Button或者Cutoff位置第一个加注。我们双方的筹码都是11到18个大盲。\n<\/p>

\n因为ATS数据是已知的，现在要试着借助这个数据来指导我们，在面对对手偷盲，如何获得最大的期望值。很多时候我们会很机械地，在同样拥有11到16个大盲时，我们会要么全压，要么弃牌。\n<\/p>

\n但这样打肯定不是最好的，我们还可以用Stop&Go的方法来玩。这里我们只是跟注，在一个合适的底牌进行全压，来获得更大的弃牌率。否则，对手很可能在我们全压的时候并不会弃牌。\n<\/p>

\n例如：对方在Button位持有55，而翻牌后出现AJT。这个时候如果我们全压，对方一定会弃牌。这就是对方在面对我们翻牌前全压时候，可能会选择跟注，而在我们Stop&Go的打法时，放弃了一手比我们更好的牌。\n<\/p>

\n但是Stop&Go也不是面对所有的偷盲都是最好的选择。要想更确切地了解，什么时候这样打最好，我们必须对对手的ATS数据进行更细致地分析。\n<\/p>

\n我选取了一些对手可能有的持牌范围，例如一个A，一个K或者一个Q，来举例说明。
\n大多数的ATS数值在20% - 45%之间，这里我们取20，25，30，40和45来进行分析。(数据范围参考Sklansky-Chubukov-Ranking)\n<\/p>

\n \n<\/p>\n\n\n
ATS = 20<\/b> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+<\/p>

33-AA = 12*6 种组合
\nA4o+ = 10*12 种组合
\nA2s+ = 12*4 种组合
\nKQo = 12 种组合
\nKTs+ = 3*4 种组合<\/p>

组合总和 = 252<\/p>

P(对手 | A) = [P(AA) + P(A4o+) + P(A2s+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | A) = [6 + 120 + 48]\/252
\nP(对手 | A) = 0.69 = 69%<\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | K) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KQo) + P(KTs+)]\/组合总和 
\nP(对手 | K) = [6 + 16 + 12 + 12]\/252
\nP(对手<\/b> | K) = 0.182 = 18.2% <\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | Q) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) ]\/组合总和 
\nP(对手 | Q) = [6 + 16 + 16]\/252
\nP(对手 | Q) = 0.15 = 15%<\/b><\/p>

\n \n<\/p>\n\n\n
ATS = 25<\/b> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n22+, Ax, KTo+, K9s+,QTs+<\/p>

22-AA = 13*6 种组合
\nAx = 12*16 种组合
\nKTo+ = 3*12 种组合
\nK9s+ = 4*4 种组合
\nQTs = 2*4 种组合<\/p>

组合总和 = 330<\/p>

P(对手 | A) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | A) = [6 + 192]\/330
\nP(对手 | A) = 198\/330
\nP(对手 | A) = 0.6 = 60%<\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | K) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KTo+) + P(K9s+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | K) = [6 + 16 + 36 + 16]\/330
\nP(对手 | K) = 0.224 = 22.4% <\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | Q) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QTs+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | Q) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 8]\/330
\nP(对手 | Q) = 0.14 = 14%<\/b><\/p>

一般来说,这里对手多数情况持有一张A。面对我们反加注全压的情况，对方基于成败比的原因几乎没有弃牌率。因为我们知道对方的牌面范围，所以我们可以凭借这些信息在翻牌之后更好的给予对方反击。<\/p>

例子:<\/b>
\nBU raises 3BB (12 BB)
\nSB folds
\nHero in BB mit A9o(11 BB)<\/p>

Hero持有A9+这里只应该跟注。在翻牌之后我们按下面的牌面来继续分析：<\/p>

Flop A: <\/b>A T 5<\/p>

Flop B: <\/b>Q 9 4<\/p>

A) Hero checks, Bu bets, Hero raises All-In
\n这里我们玩check\/raise All-In.对方大多数情况持有一张A和一个比较小的牌在这里也不会弃牌了。<\/p>

B) Hero pushes All-In<\/p>

对方很少遇到过这种牌面，并且很多时候我们在此时会是落后的，比如对方持有22或者55，但是在面对我们全压的时候，他一般会选择弃牌。这里有时也会出现问题，比如对方是否会选择用A2来跟注。<\/p>

在了解对方起手牌范围的时候，我们运用Stop&Go可以得到最大的利润。翻牌之后有A，这时我们大多数情况是拥有一个更好的起脚牌。如果翻牌后没有A，对方一般会放弃很多比我们更好的牌。<\/p>

这种打法的前提是对方在BU偷盲时玩的很紧并且面对我们全压也考虑地很透彻。<\/p>

\n \n<\/p>\n\n\n
ATS = 30<\/b> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n22+, Ax, K8o+, K4s+,QJ, Q9s+, JTs<\/p>

22-AA = 13*6 种组合
\nAx = 12*16 种组合
\nK8o+ = 5*12 种组合
\nK4s+ = 9*4 种组合
\nQJo = 12 种组合
\nQ9s+ = 3*4 种组合
\nJTs = 4 种组合<\/p>

组合总和 = 394<\/p>

P(对手 | A) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | A) = [6 + 192]\/394
\nP(对手 | A) = 198\/394
\nP(对手 | A) = 0.503 = 50,03%<\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | K) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K8o+) + P(K4s+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | K) = [6 + 16 + 60 + 36]\/394
\nP(对手 | K) = 0.299 = 29.94% <\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | Q) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QJo) + P(Q9s+))]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | Q) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 12 + 12]\/394
\nP(对手 | Q) = 0.157 = 15.7%<\/b><\/p>

<\/p>

\n \n<\/p>\n\n\n
ATS = 40<\/b> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n22+, Ax, K3o+, K2s+,Q9o+, Q5s+, JTs<\/p>

22-AA = 13*6 种组合
\nAx, 12*16 种组合
\nK3o+, 10*12 种组合
\nK2s+, 11*4 种组合
\nQ9o+, 3*12 种组合
\nQ5s+, 7*4 种组合
\nJTs = 4 种组合<\/p>

组合总和 = 502<\/p>

P(对手 | A) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | A) = 198\/502
\nP(对手 | A) = 0.394 = 39.4%<\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | K) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K3o+) + P(K2s+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | K) = [6 + 16 + 120 + 44]\/502
\nP(对手 | K) = 0.371 = 37.1% <\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | Q) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q9o+) + P(Q5s+))]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | Q) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 32 + 28]\/502
\nP(对手 | Q) = 0.195 = 19.5%<\/b><\/p>

\n \n<\/p>\n\n\n
ATS = 45<\/b> <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

\n22+, Ax, Kx+,Q7o, Q2s+, J9o+, J7s+, T8s+<\/p>

22-AA = 13*6 种组合
\nAx, 12*16 种组合
\nKx, 11*16 种组合
\nQ7o+, 5*12 种组合
\nQ2s+, 10*4 种组合
\nJ9o+, 12*2 种组合
\nJ7s+, 4*4 种组合
\nT8s+, 2*4 种组合<\/p>

组合总和 = 594<\/p>

P(对手 | A) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | A) = [6 + 192]\/498
\nP(对手 | A) = 198\/594
\nP(对手 | A) = 0.33 = 33.3%<\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | K) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(Kx+)]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | K) = [6 + 16 + 176]\/594
\nP(对手 | K) = 0.493 = 49.3% <\/b><\/p>

P(对手 | Q) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q7o+) + P(Q2s+))]\/组合总和
\nP(对手 | Q) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 60 + 40]\/594
\nP(对手 | Q) = 0.232 = 23.2%<\/b><\/p>

正如我们所看到的，这里对手持有一张A的可能性已经大大降低。所以我们在这里翻牌后并不能确定，对手是否击中牌面并且多数情况也不会用一张A带一张小的起脚牌跟注我们的全压。因此，我们这里最好在翻牌前就全压，以便对方可以放弃起手范围中的一部分牌面。<\/p>

注释:<\/b> 很多对手相比K2来说，更情愿用同花连牌来进行加注。此时，对方没有持有一张A的概率会发生变化。但是仅仅是少数玩家会用54s来跟注我们的全压。<\/p>

我们在面对ATS在20和25之间打的很紧的偷盲玩家时所使用的打法，也可以用来对付一些比较松的偷盲玩家，比如在中位ATS数据20%-25%的玩家。<\/p>

<\/p>

总结<\/h1>

通过PT&PA或者PokerStrategy大象软件<\/a>我们在一些时候可以很好的解读对手，以此，可以在合适的时机从优秀玩家那里赚取更多的筹码。 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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