How should Ben Sulsky have played AQ?
"Sauce1234" has given us some food for thought, bluffing a busted draw and getting looked up by king high. How should he have played AQ in this spot?
This remarkable hand happened in a $100/$200 heads-up No Limit Hold'em match between Ben "Sauce1234" Sulsky and Doug "WCGRider" Polk - two of the best Hold'em players in the world.
Sauce1234 check-calls his open-ended straight draw on the flop and turn, before shoving the river. WCGRider isn't fooled and makes the $11,000 call with king high!
| No Limit Hold'em (2-handed) $100/$200 WCGRider ($15,2008.04) Sauce1234 ($18,551.25) Pre-flop: ($300.00) Flop: ($2,880.00) Turn: ($6,880.00) River: ($14,880.00) Showdown: WCGRider wins $37,102.50 |
Had this hand taken place at NL100, most people would be writing off Sauce1234's line as typically fishy. However, there is clearly more to this hand than meets the eye - why does Sulsky play his draw in such a strange manner, and why does Polk feel he can profitably call with king high?
KTU looks at some possible explanations for the hand:
Sulsky check/calls the flop and turn as the preflop aggressor
The hand is already interesting from the first post-flop action. As you know from the funnel principle, a river range is made up of the line that a player takes on all previous streets.
Because of this, Polk will be asking himself which range Sulsky 3-bets before the flop and then check-calls on the flop and turn.
As we'll see shortly, the crucial question is whether or not Sulsky would also play this way with AQ or AK.
Sulsky reacts to the Ace on the river with a sudden all-in
Which hands can Sulsky go all-in with for value in this spot?
This question mainly depends on the hands that Polk will call with. It's very unlikely that Polk will get to the river with many aces, as he would have to have been bluffing on the flop and turn.
His showdown value range consists of roughly 120 hands, beginning around T9. If we assume that K9 is the worst hand Polk calls on the river then Sulsky could bet the following hands - assuming they are in his range - for value:
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The hands in red are rather unlikely considering Sulsky's line. The hands in blue are the more realistic value hands in his range.
Sulsky probably won't have this many Ax hands in his 3-bet range, nor will he usually show up with J9 or 52.
QJ and KJ are clear value bets on the river; 94s and other strong hands would probably see Sulsky make a continuation bet.
If Sulsky has no Ax hands in his range, then his value range consists of #22 combinations (with roughly #70 possible bluff hands) assuming he calls most of his draws on the flop and turn.
If Sulsky now bluffs with his possible bluff combinations, but plays Ax differently, then Polk can make a hero call with king high on the river.
However, Sulsky and Polk seem to be of different opinions on how the former would play Ax:
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Ben Sulsky says: |
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"I think he thinks I would never (or rarely) value bet here, so he can call with anything which beats a bluff. I don't see why I can't have 2pair/AK/AQ/AJ on this line, but maybe WCG realizes I can't. |
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That just leaves the question for you: should you play AQ this way here?
By KTU
