Set vs. nit on a dangerous board
Our Hero finds himself in an interesting river spot against a nitty player. It's up to you to show him the way.
Today we'll have a look at another hand from NL50. This time our Hero wakes up on MP1 with pocket sixes and decides to raise first-in. We could argue with his preflop bet sizing, after all, he only has a small pocket pair. But that's not the most interesting part of the story.
Our opponent on the cut-off decides to flat call while all the other players fold. But before we move on to the postflop action, let's have a look at the Villain.
The person in question has interesting stats in over 300 hands; 11/3 for VPIP/PFR and no 3-bets at all, while his Flop/Turn/River aggression factors are 1.3/2.0/8.0 which is interesting. With this information in mind, let's see what happens in the next round.
The Flop doesn't offer us too much in terms of value but it's still good enough for a continuation bet. Even though the Villain's range is strong and we may be slightly behind in terms of equity, there are still many overcards our hand needs protection from. So our Hero follows this logic, and his bet is called.
After that call we could give up on the Turn unimproved, but another six gives us a strong hand while “closing a potential flush draw” for the Villain, you could say. That said, we should not give in to fear just yet. There are still many weaker hands including single-card draws and another value bet is in order so it's called again.
Now it's time to recall that high River aggression factor we saw in our opponent's stats and decide our course of action. The main question is; do we have any value left to extract and, if so, how should we play this hand? We give you three options to go on with but feel free to let us know in the comments if you would play this hand any differently on the River or the previous streets.
We can assume that the Villain plays aggressively only with nuts, so it's time to check/fold to any bet exceeding 1/2 of the pot. On the other hand, we may think our hand is still strong enough to play check/call even after he bets big. And, finally, we could keep the initiative and still extract some value from his weaker hands by betting small (1/3-1/2 of the pot) and folding to his raise. The choice is yours.
Last week's result
In our last hand review, we've confronted you with a tough river bluff spot on high stakes.
After our Hero Pass_72 bluff check/raised the flop and the turn with a flush draw and gutshot, we had to decide whether to continue bluffing on the river or not.
As usual, it's very important to think about the entire range you represent. Since we appeared to be quite strong with two check/raises and since a hand like 98 (which we could certainly play aggressively, especially if both cards were hearts) hit a straight with the 5 on the river, the best option would indeed be to follow through with our bluff and go all-in.
Up to 56% of 741 voters thought the same, although there were exceptions. Check/fold got the most votes (44%) in Italy while betting 1/2 of the pot gained as many votes as the correct play in Portuguese community.
