2020 poker predictions
Barry Carter gazes into his crystal ball and predicts some major changes to mobile, late regging and the WSOP POY scoring system.
Every year I make predictions for what to expect from poker in the new year. This is what I came up with last year and this is what I think we can expect in the next 12 months.
No prize pool records broken
Despite rumours of poker’s demise every year since 2007, we regularly see new records broken and jaw dropping prize pools on a weekly basis. In 2019 we saw the second biggest WSOP Main Event ever, the biggest single prize at the Triton Million, a $2 million Spin & Go and partypoker had another $20 million online tournament.
I’m going with a boring prediction to start with and that is that we will get to the end of 2020 with no major money milestone broken. The WSOP will not be the biggest, there won’t be a bigger Super High Roller than the 2019 Triton Million, and no record breaking single prizes awarded online.
It feels like we have just hit a critical mass with these things and they are showing diminished returns as marketing ploys. The Super High Rollers are playing as high as they want and for online MTTs/Spins once you hit seven-figures you have people’s attention. 2020 will be a year where operators concentrate on other things.
The WSOP POY will be win based
Every year we argue about the best way to score points in the WSOP Player of the Year race but in 2019 we had a calamitous incident that cannot be repeated. Daniel Negreanu was awarded the title then it was revealed an admin error actually meant it was Rob Campbell who won, and had Shaun Deeb known he could have likely folded to the title in the last event.
The scoring system was under scrutiny anyway before this and most critics agree that it is weighted too much towards min-cashes and not enough towards winning bracelets.
In 2020 I expect there to be a major tweak, probably something along the lines of players not even being eligible until they have won a bracelet that series and/or scoring based on the best x number of results, rather than all of them. Quality over quantity.
Late registrations to be reduced
In 2019 and 2018 there was a backlash against re-entries from all corners of poker, because they are deemed to give an edge to the rich pros over the amateurs.
I’m already noticing the same animosity starting to brew against excessive late registration in online and live tournaments. It has been shown that late regging gives an instant ICM boost to those that do it (we even write about it in my most recent book) and it leaves a bad taste in some people’s mouth when a pro buys in at the end, shoves 10 big blinds and doubles up against a casual player who has grinded for the last five hours.
Norman Chad has recently come out criticising the Day 2 late registration in the WSOP Main Event and I expect this to be a consistent talking point in 2020.
A smaller PSPC
I hope I’m wrong about this but I expect the 2nd incarnation of the PokerStars Players No Limit Hold’em Championship to be big, but smaller than the last one. I initially thought it would be bigger because Barcelona is easier to get to for a lot of grinders, but I have changed my mind.
There just seems to have been less buzz for it this year and so far we have seen less Platinum Passes being awarded. PokerStars have not even shared how many will be awarded, which suggests to me it will be less overall.
It could be that this time around they are planning on getting a bigger buzz going much later rather than trying to keep those plates spinning all year long. I really hope that is the case because it is a very special event.
One handed mobile
A really odd one to end with because it wasn’t even on my radar as a thing until recently, but I expect all the major operators to work on a poker app you can play one handed.
Late in 2019 partypoker launched a Spin app you can play on portrait mode meaning you can do all the betting and folding actions with one hand. It still befuddles me that using both hands can be a deal breaker for some people, but poker is competing with Angry Birds, Tik Tok and Netflix on mobile, so every potential barrier has to be removed.
If this sounds like a non-story to those of you who only play on desktop, just think about how much softer the games will be when our opponents can’t even be bothered to hold their phone in both hands.
What do you think will happen in poker in 2020? Let us know in the comments:
