So yeah... All this lovely weather I was praising a few days ago made me pretty fucking lazy. And at the worst possible time of the month too. I had a $75 bet with a mate that I can play 1500 tourneys this month and was on the course of doing so until our a little heatwave came. Sitting in a beergarden, sipping ale and chatting shit seemed like a waaaay better idea than grinding in a stuffy room, so I was doing exactly that. And now I'm paying the price.
Even though I only need to play 170 tourneys in the next 3 days, I also need to complete an assigment for uni by Wednesday night and I'm only half-way through. So I'm becoming a bit stressed. If all that wasn't enough, there was more to come.
Last night I finally decided to pull the finger out of my arse and sat down for a little grind. Made four bubbles in the first set of 12 I loaded and... lost the bloody internet connection. It's not the first time it happened after Virgin decided to "upgrade" their internet and made everyone to take out another 1-year contract. And every time it happens and doesn't come back on soon enough it costs me about $180-$200 which is just not fucking on really.
I phoned them up last night, waited until the phone battery went dead (while listening to the three looped tracks of the worst cheesy shitty pop), gave up and went to bed. So I'll try again when I'm a bit calmer.
Anyway, I'm gonna get busy. Wish me luck.
This is the problem with grinding in the UK. When some decent weather comes along we want to make the most of it cause it never lasts 5 mins, whereas in alot of other grinder conutries they have sun all year round so they can grind as normal knowing their days off will be sweet anyway lol.
Virgin are a chuffin nightmare! Their cable set up has so many problems come with it. I was in a house last year where because there were so many connections around the house, tvs, phones, internet etc, it somehow screwed things up and they must have visited 12 times in 6 months until it got anywhere near half decent. If they don't sort it on the next visit I'd advice fuckin em off, tell em to sue u and go for Sky if u need the whole tv and phone included. That is if you're UK, I'm presuming you are but looking at your blog thingy I'm not sure, do Virgin operate in Russia? lol
Hi man! I'm glad you started a blog, will follow with interest and it motivates me to give more updates in my blog aswell.
Originally posted by savage1981
Ok, some non-poker related stuff. As everone who lives in the UK would know, the weather's been pretty good. So enjoying it while I can. Been drinking quite a bit and listening to this. Off round my folks for some home made food and more beer.
+1 in Estonia
Lol at your music taste though ♦
And about that 170 games in 3 days - i think you really should concentrate more on the uni staff, it's really important to get proper education these days, you can always poker next month
But yeah, nice blog!
Originally posted by Luupainaja
Hi man! I'm glad you started a blog, will follow with interest and it motivates me to give more updates in my blog aswell.And about that 170 games in 3 days - i think you really should concentrate more on the uni staff, it's really important to get proper education these days, you can always poker next month
But yeah, nice blog!
Thanks!
Kinda expected you to discourage me from hitting my target, but let me warn you right there - there's not a fucking chance in the world (barring some freak accident), that I'm not getting that money off you. Even if I have to grind for 24 hours straight on Thursday.
Originally posted by sdsbates
Nice blog, was just wondering which bookies you worked for?
Thank you!
It was Ladbrokes. But I don't think that working for William Hill or Corals would be any different.
Originally posted by savage1981
Since I'm a pathetic bronze, I can't really be posting the hands for a review in appropriate forums. So I was wondering what other people think.Poker Stars, $27.78 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.Hero (SB): 3,344 (22.3 bb)
BB: 3,365 (22.4 bb)
MP: 1,190 (7.9 bb)
CO: 1,395 (9.3 bb)
BTN: 4,206 (28 bb)Preflop: Hero is SB with T
A
3 folds, Hero raises to 375, BB raises to 3,365 and is all-in, Hero foldsResults:
Spoiler
750 pot
BB mucked and won 750 (375 net)
The BB is a decent reg. Basically to call this he needs to be shoving about 65% which I don't think he is. If he's shoving about 30%, which is more realistic, we need AQo+. Shoving this, however, gives us about 0.3 increase in equity. What's a better play? Raise/folding ATo seems a bit wasteful.
Hi again!
Where did you get that shoving gives us 0.3 increase in equity? If we take this number from Wiz or from nash calculator as EVDiff% then its not accurate. EVDiff% in those programs is EV difference of push vs fold (as % of the price pool), but that's not the same as increase in equity compared to the initial equity before posting the blinds. Its more or less the same if you're not posting the blinds, so folding doesn't decrease your equity (given that the action between other players doesnt change the situation much) and also, equity increase gets nearer to the EVDiff % (defined as difference between push or fold) as stacksizes get bigger, because then losing sb or bb doesn't decrease your equity compared to the initial equity that much.
Anyway, i offer the following solution to the hand in question.
Firstly, yes, r/f ATo (or any other hand for that matter) opens you up to explotation and your opponent gains equity from you if he shoves enough. So, how much exactly your opponent has to shove over your raise that it comes, in fact, more profitable for you to just openshove ATo assuming your op calls exactly nash? (all equities for the situation are taken from the holdemresources.net nash calculator)
1. What is your average weighted equity after shoving ATo, assuming that your op calls nash (6.3%: 77+, AQo+, ATs+)?
So 93.7% of the times you win op's BB and your equity will be 0.2521. 6.3% of the times you will get called and against that range with ATo you win 31.55% of the times (i dont take ties into account). Hence, the weighted average equity after shoving is this:
0.2521*93.7% + 0.375(your equity after doubling up)*6.3%*31.55% + 0(equity when you lose)*6.3%*(100%-31.55%) = 0.24367
2. How much does you op have to shove for r/f ATo to have less equity than shoving ATo (assuming your op calls nash if you shove)?
x = the % (the range) your op shoves
We have to solve the following equation:
0.2521(your equity when you raise and your op folds)*(1-x) + 0.227(equity when you r/f)*x = 0.24367
x=33.6%
Conclusion:
If your op shoves less than 33.6% over your raise in this situation, its better to r/f ATo compared to shoving (if your op calls nash).
If your op shoves more than 33.6% of the times over your raise, its better to shove ATo IF your opponent wont call your shove wider than around 11% (according to wiz). Notice that this is not entirely true, because if your op shoves ridiculously wide over your raise, lets 80% for example, then ATo might become a trapping hand and it might be better to r/c this compared to shoving. Its also a mathematical problem, exactly how wide your op has to shove for ATo to become a trapping hand.
Hope that that makes sense, any feedback much appreciated.
Originally posted by savage1981
Originally posted by sdsbates
Nice blog, was just wondering which bookies you worked for?Thank you!
It was Ladbrokes. But I don't think that working for William Hill or Corals would be any different.
Or Betfred! Thank god for my laptop and mobile broadband during those quiet nights! lol
Originally posted by Luupainaja
Hi again!Where did you get that shoving gives us 0.3 increase in equity? If we take this number from Wiz or from nash calculator as EVDiff% then its not accurate. EVDiff% in those programs is EV difference of push vs fold (as % of the price pool), but that's not the same as increase in equity compared to the initial equity before posting the blinds. Its more or less the same if you're not posting the blinds, so folding doesn't decrease your equity (given that the action between other players doesnt change the situation much) and also, equity increase gets nearer to the EVDiff % (defined as difference between push or fold) as stacksizes get bigger, because then losing sb or bb doesn't decrease your equity compared to the initial equity that much.
Anyway, i offer the following solution to the hand in question.
Firstly, yes, r/f ATo (or any other hand for that matter) opens you up to explotation and your opponent gains equity from you if he shoves enough. So, how much exactly your opponent has to shove over your raise that it comes, in fact, more profitable for you to just openshove ATo assuming your op calls exactly nash? (all equities for the situation are taken from the holdemresources.net nash calculator)
1. What is your average weighted equity after shoving ATo, assuming that your op calls nash (6.3%: 77+, AQo+, ATs+)?
So 93.7% of the times you win op's BB and your equity will be 0.2521. 6.3% of the times you will get called and against that range with ATo you win 31.55% of the times (i dont take ties into account). Hence, the weighted average equity after shoving is this:
0.2521*93.7% + 0.375(your equity after doubling up)*6.3%*31.55% + 0(equity when you lose)*6.3%*(100%-31.55%) = 0.24367
2. How much does you op have to shove for r/f ATo to have less equity than shoving ATo (assuming your op calls nash if you shove)?
x = the % (the range) your op shoves
We have to solve the following equation:
0.2521(your equity when you raise and your op folds)*(1-x) + 0.227(equity when you r/f)*x = 0.24367
x=33.6%
Conclusion:
If your op shoves less than 33.6% over your raise in this situation, its better to r/f ATo compared to shoving (if your op calls nash).If your op shoves more than 33.6% of the times over your raise, its better to shove ATo IF your opponent wont call your shove wider than around 11% (according to wiz). Notice that this is not entirely true, because if your op shoves ridiculously wide over your raise, lets 80% for example, then ATo might become a trapping hand and it might be better to r/c this compared to shoving. Its also a mathematical problem, exactly how wide your op has to shove for ATo to become a trapping hand.
Hope that that makes sense, any feedback much appreciated.
It makes sense, but I'm afraid this situation is too complex for maths be able to solve it. We can't know 100% what we're gonna get called by if we shove, so the figure in part 1 could change, affecting the equation in part 2.
Also, as dangermowse pointed out, if he 3bets small a certain part of his range, but shoves the rest, ATo could become a trapping hand a lot quicker.
Originally posted by savage1981
It makes sense, but I'm afraid this situation is too complex for maths be able to solve it. We can't know 100% what we're gonna get called by if we shove, so the figure in part 1 could change, affecting the equation in part 2.
Also, as dangermowse pointed out, if he 3bets small a certain part of his range, but shoves the rest, ATo could become a trapping a lot quicker.
Yes, you're right, and there's gonna be uncertain variables for any alternative argument too.
I'm advocating r/f here, and i think my mathematical approach shows that if our op wont shove wider than 30% over a raise, r/f is clearly the best line.
And as you point out mentioning trapping, just raising ATo here opens up more possibilities for you and your op. And that in turn gives us more opportunities to exploit our op, we provide him with more opportunities to make a mistake vs us (if we are good enough). Eg, he might 3bet/fold, he might shove too wide, he might flat and make postflop mistakes. Whereas if we openshove, its not very likely that our op makes a big mistake against us.
Poker Stars, $27.78 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
MP1: 1,441 (14.4 bb)
MP2: 990 (9.9 bb)
MP3: 1,563 (15.6 bb)
Hero (CO): 1,920 (19.2 bb)
BTN: 2,995 (30 bb)
SB: 2,332 (23.3 bb)
BB: 2,259 (22.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A 7
3 folds, Hero raises to 225, 2 folds, BB calls 125
Flop: (500) 7
2
K
(2 players)
BB bets 200, Hero calls 200
Turn: (900) Q (2 players)
BB bets 200, Hero calls 200
River: (1,300) T (2 players)
BB bets 500, Hero calls 500
Results:
Spoiler
2,300 pot
Final Board: 7 2 K Q T
Hero showed A 7 and won 2,300 (1,175 net)
BB showed A 2 and lost (-1,125 net)
Dear fish, thank you for letting me extract as much value as possible with a second bottom pair.
Originally posted by savage1981
Dear fish, thank you for letting me extract as much value as possible with a second bottom pair.
Best sentence I've read all day, so awesome!
Ok, so the main goal for May was to play 1500 tourneys, which has been achieved. As I mentioned above I had a prop bet with a mate and looks like I won and he lost. I doubt this target would have been achieved had there been no money involved. So it looks like money can motivate pretty well.
I think I'm generally pleased with how the month went. The biggest regret, however, was not taking the full advantage of a reload promo. I think I missed out on $125 there due to a restriction on how much I could deposit in a certain period of time. I had to transfer my whole bankroll from iPoker and that took me like 3 attempts. Being able to deposit it all at once meant writing to support with which I couldn't be bothered at the time and therefore when the offer was available I was only able to deposit half of the maximum amount. Oh well..
Anyway, here's the graph
The graph's winnings are bigger then what the tournament results screen shows and since I don't bother checking my bankroll I don't know how much I actually won, but here's how much I think I won:
Winnings: $1519
Stellar rewards: $100
Reload bonus: $125
Battle of Planets bonus: $100
Prop bet: $75
Total: $1919
I'm something like 2500 FPPs short to claim $650 VIP reward bonus, so that will go towards next month's profit.
So that's that. Since I believe that hard work should be rewarded by hard play, you're not gonna hear from me for the next four days or so, coz I'll be busy getting wrecked.
This actually has been posted on someone's else blog, but it made me laugh almost hysterically.
Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
Lol, dude, are you like brainwashed? You are on 189 bi downswing and are still thinking its just bad luck. You cash out and suddenly run bad, oh what a funny coincidence right. Never heard that one before.Open your eyes. The site is evening the playing field to get more money. They dont want the players worse than yourself run off so fast. Its simple math and logic. And your HHs alone can never prove it, neither can their. Its no risk for them to rigg it in that way, DUCY? Especially not when every player has VARIANCE written all over their face. Sooo easy for the site to cheat a crowd like that.
You even write that you think it was rigged earlier in the blog. Why doubt your gut feeling? Because others say it CAN also be variance? In theory, that makes you the easiest victim of a scam ever.
I have no problem with guys thinking the games are fair, if they have no reason to think otherwise. But you sir, have every reason to think otherwise. So I will just assume that you are indeed brainwashed.
Lol, dude, are you like a fucking retard?
Nice profit!
So, whats your ROI and evROI? Does HEM2 calculate them correctly now?
And, yeah, when i post my May wrap-up, i guess i have to add -75$ there. Well, after all, its a zero-sum game, isnt it?
Originally posted by Luupainaja
Nice profit!So, whats your ROI and evROI? Does HEM2 calculate them correctly now?
And, yeah, when i post my May wrap-up, i guess i have to add -75$ there. Well, after all, its a zero-sum game, isnt it?
Thank you!
I've no idea how HM2 works out evROI. I think it's still fucked. But if I had to break down my real ROI it would be:
$30s - 403 games, ROI - 7.9%
$15s - 1100 games, ROI - 3.4%
P.S. Instead of adding -$75, you could just deduct (or subtract) $75 ♦
Didn't think I would be writing over the weekend, but I'm fucking bored, so there you go..
So it's the Queen's diamond jubilee on the throne. She's been on it for 60 years, so I guess she's done well for herself. I'm not gonna dedicate the whole page to how fucked up the whole idea of having a monarch in the 21st century is, because I don't pay any tax, so I basically don't care. I guess people would pay the same amount in tax for having a president anyway and even if they weren't, we're probably making enough money off tourists who think she's fucking great.
Two good things came out of it though. I just saw a picture of her when she was about my age and I definitely fucking would. Sounds like a sick thought looking at her now, but trust me, she was doable back in the day. I was pretty close to having a queen jack off over her picture, but found some better porn. I'm probably saying it coz I'm still pissed from last night and gonna regret it when I reread it once I'm sober though.
Another good thing is the amount of sick parties happening over the weekend. Went to a street party last night, which was pretty good. You know you're getting too old when kids are dancing to the music and taking drugs you've never heard off. According to some students I was chatting to you're never too old to take pills, but that's what I thought when I was their age. Having a wicked night and then suffering for the next three 3 days - can't do it anymore. But they're young and they're free... I still have as much fun by just having a few beers. I do have to leave at 3am though, instead of staying there all night and then going to an after party...
So the next stop is Birmingham gay pride. They're gonna have loads of tents with DJs I wanna see. Can't wait!
Originally posted by savage1981
I was pretty close to having a queen jack off over her picture, but found some better porn.
Bro, I know exactly how u feel. That prestige and longevity gets me every time
Spoiler
Originally posted by Schrader69
Originally posted by savage1981
I was pretty close to having a queen jack off over her picture, but found some better porn.Bro, I know exactly how u feel. That prestige and longevity gets me every time
Spoiler
Have to agree here. I saw some of that old video and yeah she was real decent. Inbreeding cant be that bad after all
I added spoilers to the above posts to be a little kinder to everyone involved.
Regards,
Richard