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Red or Green? Poll is created on Jul 18, 2012

  
  

1 Million guaranteed or 50% chance of 100 Million?

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monkee1980
Joined: 01.04.2008

why would i need 100mio?

1million is enuff 4me..dont need no fast cars, bling, coke n whores with big plastic tits...

i can buy everytging i need for like 500k, invest the other 500k, live of regular interest..


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Originally posted by Kyyberi

Originally posted by ihufa
Sell some action and take the red ldo

You can sell 50% away for 40M. I bet someone would buy EV 50M share for 40M. So you either win 40M or 90M. Not a bad deal, huh?

Doesn't make sense :P. Your theory:

He pays you 40M.

You win, you give him 50M back and keep 90M.
You lose, you give him nothing back and keep 40M.

Sounds good, BUT...

that means that he gains 10M in 50% of the cases and loses 40M in 50% of the cases, which kind of makes it -EV for him, doesn't it ? He'd be better off playing roulette ;).

Why you probably meant is:

You win, you give him 40M+50M back and keep 10M.
You lose, you give him nothing back and keep 40M.

Ironically, you want to actually lose that way to make the most profit .

The question is, how do you maximise profits for yourself? Or I suppose minimize risk so that you don't care whether you win or lose :).


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Tunnelblicker
Joined: 31.10.2007

In contrary to everyone else in this thread, I first thought I will take the 1Mio for sure for the reasons mentioned. But after 5min I changed my mind and I will definetly take the 50% chance of 100 million. 1 million almost changes nothing. When people say they spend 500k and live their life with the interest rate of the other 500k they have to live in a third world country or never have more then $5k.


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zloVkvetinaci
Joined: 19.04.2008

green, 1mil is not enough to fly into space or build huge robots


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Originally posted by Tunnelblicker
When people say they spend 500k and live their life with the interest rate of the other 500k they have to live in a third world country or never have more then $5k.

I can easily get 4.5% tax free in investments. That's 45k if you invest the all million. I can live with that!!

(in my country average salary is somewhere between 10 to 15k, but i think 45k is good to live in most World countries)


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I would pick green if I was able to sell it to someone else. I am sure I would be able to find some rich mofo to pay 45 million for my equity.


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monkee1980
Joined: 01.04.2008

Originally posted by VirtuaGod

Originally posted by Tunnelblicker
When people say they spend 500k and live their life with the interest rate of the other 500k they have to live in a third world country or never have more then $5k.

I can easily get 4.5% tax free in investments. That's 45k if you invest the all million. I can live with that!!

(in my country average salary is somewhere between 10 to 15k, but i think 45k is good to live in most World countries)

jup..and btw if i invest 500k, while i already have got a nice house thats fully paid and lots of stuff i need to produce more money (of course i wanna work for a living - the million is just a nice BR-boost) i will be happy..and in the end im not a greedy fuck and i dont need a golden coffin with platinum handles..


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Originally posted by VirtuaGod

Originally posted by Tunnelblicker
When people say they spend 500k and live their life with the interest rate of the other 500k they have to live in a third world country or never have more then $5k.

I can easily get 4.5% tax free in investments. That's 45k if you invest the all million. I can live with that!!

(in my country average salary is somewhere between 10 to 15k, but i think 45k is good to live in most World countries)

Ever heard of inflation? Make it 15k :).


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thazar
Joined: 14.09.2009

Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch

Originally posted by Kyyberi

Originally posted by ihufa
Sell some action and take the red ldo

You can sell 50% away for 40M. I bet someone would buy EV 50M share for 40M. So you either win 40M or 90M. Not a bad deal, huh?

Doesn't make sense :P. Your theory:

He pays you 40M.

You win, you give him 50M back and keep 90M.
You lose, you give him nothing back and keep 40M.

Sounds good, BUT...

that means that he gains 10M in 50% of the cases and loses 40M in 50% of the cases, which kind of makes it -EV for him, doesn't it ? He'd be better off playing roulette ;).

Why you probably meant is:

You win, you give him 40M+50M back and keep 10M.
You lose, you give him nothing back and keep 40M.

Ironically, you want to actually lose that way to make the most profit .

The question is, how do you maximise profits for yourself? Or I suppose minimize risk so that you don't care whether you win or lose :).

you win you give him 40M + 50M, you keep 50M


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Originally posted by HollyMichelle

Originally posted by vonki
At first I thought "hah, well thats easy... green button!!"

but if it was for real, id probably end up pushing the red button. $1m would last me a lifetime, and im not sure I would be happy about the way my life could/would end up like if I had $50m... :f_ugly:

This, this and this!

1m wouldn't last a life time guys!


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gadget51
Joined: 23.06.2008

It probably would if you were 80.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

if you're 80, its not even close, go for the big bucks and then give to charity in your will or wte.


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NightFrostaSS
Joined: 25.10.2008

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by HollyMichelle

Originally posted by vonki
At first I thought "hah, well thats easy... green button!!"

but if it was for real, id probably end up pushing the red button. $1m would last me a lifetime, and im not sure I would be happy about the way my life could/would end up like if I had $50m... :f_ugly:

This, this and this!

1m wouldn't last a life time guys!

Depends on where you live in.


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DannyG13
Joined: 29.10.2009

If you did nothing with the $1m then it obv wouldn't last a lifetime. But if you were smart with it and invested in a few businesses or properties you could turn that $1m into a regular income for the rest of your life pretty easily.

I snap call the $1m no question.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Doesn't last long? If I put that money to bank, and withdraw 2K euros a month (which is average/good income) that would last over 50 years. To me that is a pretty long time.

If I have a choice between doing 8 hours a day to pay my bills or do whatever I want and pay my bills, it wouldn't be a tough choice. I honestly think that 1M to my current life is a lot more than 100M compared to 1M.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Doesn't last long? If I put that money to bank, and withdraw 2K euros a month (which is average/good income) that would last over 50 years. To me that is a pretty long time.

If I have a choice between doing 8 hours a day to pay my bills or do whatever I want and pay my bills, it wouldn't be a tough choice. I honestly think that 1M to my current life is a lot more than 100M compared to 1M.

inflation..


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Interesting subject.

I would take 1,000,000 in hand. Reason being that this would definitely set my life up comfortably for the remainders of my years. This is of course provided that I couldn't sell any shares ;).

For further discussion, if the amount given was 100,000 compared to the flip for 100,000,000 I would instead go for the 50% at 100,000,000. There is some sort of pain threshold in the middle there that is hard to define.


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UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009

Originally posted by pleno1

Originally posted by HollyMichelle

Originally posted by vonki
At first I thought "hah, well thats easy... green button!!"

but if it was for real, id probably end up pushing the red button. $1m would last me a lifetime, and im not sure I would be happy about the way my life could/would end up like if I had $50m... :f_ugly:

This, this and this!

1m wouldn't last a life time guys!

Neither will half of nothing ;)


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gadget51
Joined: 23.06.2008

It's better than nothing at all! :f_biggrin:


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I don't need money to be happy.
I'd take option 2 because EV donation of 50mil (though I might keep some money for myself if I win) would help much bigger number of people then 1mil.


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