[SH] NL25 JTs turn semibluff push

Hello pcfmcc02,

Against such a player not really, cause I assume we rarely have much fold equity vs his Ax hands. Meanwhile we have decent implied odds which I'd use while he gives us them.

Best Regards.

Why not raise veriz? He will instafold AK/AJ and maybe not even shove with AQ over our raise cause we rep sets sooo hard

Originally posted by Farmarchist
He will instafold AK/AJ

Fishez never fold TP A.

we rep sets sooo hard

Are you trying to rep a hand vs a players who plays 90% of the hands? Never a good idea:D

Originally posted by ACi0coiu

Originally posted by Farmarchist
He will instafold AK/AJ

Fishez never fold TP A.

we rep sets sooo hard

Are you trying to rep a hand vs a players who plays 90% of the hands? Never a good idea:D

?

He's not a fish, but a 20/18 regular.

Oh sorry, I haven't looked at the stats. My bad.

If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.

And because of the board texture (2 FDs), he'll probably still make a crying call on a non ♠ and ♥ on the river. So if you raise turn, I think you should shove any ♠ and ♥ river, wich is 50% of the time, so you're BE.

LE: actually, the chances to river a spade or a heart is less then 50%, 'cause there are more ♣ and ♦ cards in the deck.

@ACi0coiu
Please try to look at hand little better in future as you write nonsenses.

I'm more inclined to call here, eventho I think shoving also isn't mistake, because:

1. We make lower variance move and we know people at lower stakes likes to call (even regs).
2. Villain is on tighter side, that makes me believe he doesn't isolate very wide given position of limper and his own. So, actually his range looks like AJ+, 88+, KJ+ or maybe even tighter.
I don't expect him betting TT-KK on turn so his range looks weighted to value.

His low wtsd and big 2barrel could make us thinking shove is better but it's not standard spot and we shouldn't give so much credit to stats as there isn't stat how much he 2barrel after isolation.

Originally posted by ACi0coiu
If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
more ♣ and ♦ cards in the deck.

Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.

Originally posted by zobupasts

Originally posted by ACi0coiu
If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
more ♣ and ♦ cards in the deck.

Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.

I agree. As the title of the post says, and can be seen from the betsize, I actually pushed on the turn. If we decide to raise, I dont think that any kind of smaller raise makes sense here.

Originally posted by pcfmcc02

Originally posted by zobupasts

Originally posted by ACi0coiu
If you raise here, you probably should shove the river also, cause Ax calls once on turn.
more ♣ and ♦ cards in the deck.

Take a look at stacksizes and betsizes. There is no money left to shove on the river. If we just minraise on the turn and villain just calls than there would be ~$10 in our stack and pot would be ~$30. And that gives us close to none fold equity.

I agree. As the title of the post says, and can be seen from the betsize, I actually pushed on the turn. If we decide to raise, I dont think that any kind of smaller raise makes sense here.

Did he call? ♦

No, he tanked for a while, and folded...

Originally posted by pcfmcc02
No, he tanked for a while, and folded...

Imo you played it great.

Veriz probably also thought you played vs the fish

Originally posted by Farmarchist

Originally posted by pcfmcc02
No, he tanked for a while, and folded...

Imo you played it great.

Veriz probably also thought you played vs the fish

Not really, I took look mainly at his W$SD which would tell us that he could overplay easily his Ax hand. That's why I said I don't see him folding that often there.

Also disagree hardly that we are representing set. We are rarely representing a set on such a board cause we would be raising them on the flop and protecting our hand and not flatting. So it's towards AQ hands only what we are representing.

With assumptions that the guy is capable of folding Ax hands then obviously we can ship there. But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.

Originally posted by veriz
But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.

I missed that point in my thought-process... Fortunately he wasnt a very good reg, probably just looked on his cards, saw he had only TP, and folded (so I wasnt very good either, cause I was thinking, that he simply cant call a turn push with one-pair hand... ♦). But sure, against better opponent I could have been in trouble...

Originally posted by pcfmcc02

Originally posted by veriz
But our range is also towards to very capped range only cause a reg would usually raise the flop to protect from draws even if the fish is in the pot. So Q:sXs or some other equity hand.

I missed that point in my thought-process... Fortunately he wasnt a very good reg, probably just looked on his cards, saw he had only TP, and folded (so I wasnt very good either, cause I was thinking, that he simply cant call a turn push with one-pair hand... ♦). But sure, against better opponent I could have been in trouble...
But yeah, the card is one of the best cards to shove, I do agree on that. But if it's going to be the best spot to gain the fold equity with his W$SD. ♦ Vs 50% I would snap-shove most likely and assuming to have tons of fold equity.