$2.20 turbo can we call his shove?

Hello ragney. This is not close. This is far far far from anything close.

You have to call with something like 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KJo+,QJo because with 10bb, he'll shove at least 30%.

If you and BU/SB are going to call with only ~AJ+, 77+, he can almost shove Any Two Cards!

Originally posted by Bzzz2906
Hello ragney. This is not close. This is far far far from anything close.

You have to call with something like 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KJo+,QJo because with 10bb, he'll shove at least 30%.

If you and BU/SB are going to call with only ~AJ+, 77+, he can almost shove Any Two Cards!

I think you give unknowns in a $2.20 game far too much credit.

Most of them won't shove Q9o or K5s, even though they only have 10BB.

I don't think an unknown will be shoving any more than 20% here, so I'd fold.

A 30% range is more like 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo. There is no K5s or Q9o

The pot is 150*9 (ante) + 600 + 1,200 (blinds) + 11,827. You have to call 11,827-1,200
10,627/(10,627+14,977) = 41,5%

If he shoves only 44+,A8s+,KQs,A9o+ (10%) you sill have to call.

MP2    56.98%    52.16%    4.81% { 44+, A8s+, KQs, A9o+ }
MP3    43.02%    38.21%    4.81% { AsTs }

I would personally shove 40% here (omg omg, this is loose!!)
Let's say i shove K5s, your calling range is 77+, AJ+ (7.27% | 89 combos) Let's say BU and SB call the same range and fk off the CU.

This mean 92.73% of the time, BU folds. 7.27% of the time I have 32.24% equity.
Same for SB and BB.

So overall, everybody is going to fold 79,73% of the time. I'll be call 20.27%, but when I'm call, I still have 32.24% equity!

Therefore I make a good profit by shoving K5s here. You can do the math if you want.

Look, if these range are correct :

CO calls a push with 17.9%, 22+ A6s+ ATo+ K8s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T8s+ 98s 87s
BU overshoves 5.6%, 88+ AQs+ AQo+
SB overshoves 5.6%, 88+ AQs+ AQo+
BB overshoves 5.6%, 88+ AQs+ AQo+

BU calls a push with 8.0%, 66+ AJs+ AJo+ KQs
SB overshoves 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo
BB overshoves 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo

SB 7.7%, 66+ AJs+ AJo+
BB overshoves 3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo

BB 8.0%, 66+ ATs+ AJo+

In green cards that MP can make a +cEV shove with. ~white = ~cEV0. red = -cEV

So if you knew that your opponents will call that tight, if you were MP, you should have shove ATC, even 32o.

So absolutely no, you CAN'T fold ATs here. And I am 100% affirmative, you CAN'T.

Well, you can, but in that case, you're not a winning MTTs player.

I'm not talking about what MP3 should be shoving, I'm talking about what he is shoving. We'd hope that MP3 isn't pushing something profitable. I assume all players at these stakes are bad until they have proven otherwise. So let's try and put MP3 on a plausible range, not a range that is profitable for him, because that makes no sense.

With antes it is a call (is there? I assumed not) but without I still prefer a fold vs an unknown.

Well I knew it wasn't -EV.

My concern was rather:

1. Lets say we need 41.5% right? We're getting 43%. Obv +EV call, no question about it (came to this conclusion myself).

2. The problem is that we're only 1.5% above 'EV'. I was thinking if we could make more EV by keeping our chips and raise/steal/shove, here with have an extra equity, which is the FE (fold equity).

i def. agree that the range you give the players like k5+ is too lose!
i would try to be a little better than breakeven ev -> so 3-4% more in this spot! -> so i think a10s is one of the first combinations i call here! something like a8s+ and a10+

and thx for the very good posting bzzzzz
def. helping our beginners a lot

I would personally call A7o+,a6s+ and 77+ in that position.

Originally posted by Wohmfg
I'm not talking about what MP3 should be shoving, I'm talking about what he is shoving. We'd hope that MP3 isn't pushing something profitable. I assume all players at these stakes are bad until they have proven otherwise. So let's try and put MP3 on a plausible range, not a range that is profitable for him, because that makes no sense.

With antes it is a call (is there? I assumed not) but without I still prefer a fold vs an unknown.

Villain is unknown, we can't know if is a nit or a loose player, a fish or a good player. We don't have any idea about his range, it could be AA+ or 32o+. But we can figure out what he should do, it's a start. I'm not assuming he's going to play perfectly in this spot, but we can't assume he's very tight and shove only 10 or 5%.

All we can do is try to give him a range based on our experience at these stake. Everyone has a difference experience and everyone will come up with a different range and nobody is wrong... So I like to put them the range I would shove and make it tighter. But I would never put him less than 20% without any read. And also, I hate having a default calling-range easily exploitable.

And yes, there is ante, it's easy to see that: MP3: 11,977 (10 bb); MP3 raises to 11,827 and is all-in. ===> ante = 150 chips.