All of them ♦ $5-22 5/10/30 man. Place is just hilarious. My eyes are bleeding.
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it's 'eat my jizz' lol. came up with the name as a joke whilst in a skype chatroom full of prats 
Played 4.5hrs so far today. I won't go into detail but I couldn't even DESCCCERIIIIIIIIIIIIIBE the level of runbad if I tried. Literally 80% of shoves called, or if not shoves then stack committing raises. You know like if you're shoving with 4-5 players behind what are the chances of a top 8% call? 40% or something? If that's how it works. mmm nah, since February it has been 80%, I just cannot get a single shove through there is something waiting every hand. Ok so that was a bit of detail ♦
Managed to FT a $27 turbo MTT KO. HEM did a wonderful job of completely missing out all my bounties so not sure what total was but I got 4th for $504. There was only 300-ish players. What I do know is there isn't a single red line (a lost pot) throughout the entire tournament until the exit hand.
A horrible hand arose here:
Poker Stars $20+$5+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2000/t4000 Blinds + t400 - 9 players
UTG+2: t27018 M = 2.81
MP1: t8410 M = 0.88
MP2: t55656 M = 5.80
CO: t9222 M = 0.96
BTN: t62893 M = 6.55
Hero (SB): t18206 M = 1.90
BB: t24832 M = 2.59
UTG: t239323 M = 24.93
UTG+1: t13440 M = 1.40
Pre Flop: (t9600) Hero is SB with 5 
5 
6 folds, BTN raises to t62493 all in
Wiz likes a call if he's over 40% which he probably is, but he is an unknown. Even vs a reg on atc I still hate a call here with two 2bb and one 3bb stack around. So I fold regardless.
Exit hand was shoving 10bbs bvb into CL as the slight shortest stack with obviously the pure nuts waiting for the 1000th time this week. I had K6s and couldn't have flopped any further away if it was dealt on Jupiter.
Mixed in at the end I bricked 15 18-mans before binking a $60 and $30 thank frick! Total +$700.
Hoping my coach doesn't read this blog but tough shit if he does. I'm pissed off with him. I ran 16% over 6k 18mans and now I'm 6% for my last 3.5k-ish and he reckons it's not variance. The games ain't changed THAT much in 6 months, enough to warrant a massive 10% difference I know that for sure, and I know how awful I'm running every single day. Over those 6k games that were decent my expectation (EV) was actually HIGHER too, it's not as if I ran fantastic over that time. It pissed me off that cause he's run like god his whole life he thinks variance doesn't exist over such sick volume. I said I think 30k 18's would be a guaranteed number for a true ROI and he thinks that's funny.
Been trying to mess about with variance simulators but there seems to be only one online after an extensive search and it won't bloody work! I even run bad at trying to find out how much I'm meant to run bad! 
Forgot to add, biggest losing day of the year. Can't take much more.
Wow man, officially following your blog. If nothing else I can contribute to the bad-beat and run-bad whining portion!
Break a leg,
G.
I tried something earlier. I took a few of the regs with average ROI's of 6-8% in the 18's, which is most of them, and searched loads of smaller samples throughout a whole year, 2 month samples at a time which generally came out as 4k games. Not one of them deviated much from their average ROI over any sample with the exception of latenthreat who ran 14% for a while. Makes my decent run less chance of being pure fluke but still nothing too conclusive.
True, but if the next 5 best players on the limit have ROIs between 10% and 12%, it also decreases the chance of yours actually being 16%. While you're undoubtedly a very good player, you're only gonna wind yourself up if you try achieve the unachievable.
Originally posted by dangermowse
Hoping my coach doesn't read this blog but tough shit if he does. I'm pissed off with him. I ran 16% over 6k 18mans and now I'm 6% for my last 3.5k-ish and he reckons it's not variance. The games ain't changed THAT much in 6 months, enough to warrant a massive 10% difference I know that for sure, and I know how awful I'm running every single day. Over those 6k games that were decent my expectation (EV) was actually HIGHER too, it's not as if I ran fantastic over that time. It pissed me off that cause he's run like god his whole life he thinks variance doesn't exist over such sick volume. I said I think 30k 18's would be a guaranteed number for a true ROI and he thinks that's funny.Been trying to mess about with variance simulators but there seems to be only one online after an extensive search and it won't bloody work! I even run bad at trying to find out how much I'm meant to run bad!
You are probably the Chosen one.
Mark my words (the QFMFT)
I'd just like to know how I am so amazing at telling the future. Thing is, it really isn't hard at all. All I have to say is "I AM GOING TO LOSE" and hey presto, Im the modern day nostrafuckingdamus!!!!!
Today started out great. As I started at peakish time I went for 180's again. Got 3rd in a $15 thanks to this beauty!
Poker Stars $13.77+$1.23 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2000/t4000 Blinds + t400 - 3 players
BB: t142508 M = 19.79
BTN: t66632 M = 9.25
Hero (SB): t60860 M = 8.45
Pre Flop: (t7200) Hero is SB with K K 
BTN raises to t16000, Hero calls t14000, 1 fold
Flop: (t37200) 7 5 
6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t20000, Hero raises to t44460 all in, BTN calls t24460
Turn: (t126120) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: (t126120) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t126120
BTN shows A 8 (a straight, Four to Eight)
Hero shows K K (a pair of Kings)
BTN wins t126120
I was 55% on the flop. Oh sorry, do forgive me, for a minute there I entered the world of maths which apparently is meant to be factual. Back to ACTUALITY.. now and I'm a 2% dog!!!!
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I then FT bubbled a $3r 180 thanks to this cunt.
Poker Stars $3.19+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t3500/t7000 Blinds + t700 - 5 players
SB: t86330 M = 6.17
Hero (BB): t28252 M = 2.02
UTG: t30144 M = 2.15
CO: t125752 M = 8.98
BTN: t36216 M = 2.59
Pre Flop: (t14000) Hero is BB with 8 3
3 folds, SB calls t3500, Hero checks
Flop: (t17500) A 2 3 (2 players)
SB bets t8750, Hero raises to t20552 all in, SB calls t11802
Turn: (t58604) K (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: (t58604) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t58604
SB shows 9 5 (a pair of Nines)
Hero shows 8 3 (a pair of Threes)
SB wins t58604
Also got a 2nd and 3rd in $8 jobs. I seem to make loads more $8 FT's than $15's when I'm pretty sure there's no difference in amount of regulars.
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So later I was in two minds whether to play again as for some reason I've had real heavy eyes and headache all day as though I didn't sleep properly when I slept my usual amount, and of course the other reason, I AM GOING TO LOSE THE WHOLE DAY'S PROFIT.
Cue a $350 14 game brick 
It just this second ended as I typed this post in the most excruciating $15 45m HU of my life which saw this hand resulting in me once again almost knocking myself out headbutting my keyboard.
Poker Stars $13.78+$1.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds + t100 - 2 players
Hero (BB): t48127 M = 15.04
BTN/SB: t19373 M = 6.05
Pre Flop: (t3200) Hero is BB with K A
BTN/SB raises to t19273 all in, Hero calls t17273
Flop: (t38746) J 8 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: (t38746) J (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: (t38746) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t38746
Hero shows K A (a pair of Jacks)
BTN/SB shows 7 K (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
BTN/SB wins t38746
Miraculously I came back from 5 to 1 down in chips to win.
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I do intend on playing tomorrow, the last day of August, but am just gonna do the wrap up now because no doubt the graph will be ruined by a vertical drop to break even again.
I've played more hours than other other month this year, a total of 107. Still pretty lame. But that also included a week of not playing at all, so roughly 35hrs a week which is actually very good for me! It's also been the 3rd swinigiest, most all over the place graph of the year aswell, behind July and catastrophic April.
This is 40% below EV in terms of bb/100 and 2 million chips below EV.
Solid month.
No disrespect DM, but I've been reading your blog for ages, and your biggest leak by far is your negative mindset. Everyone goes through rough patches in poker, but no one benefits positively from complaining about it every day.
I think everyone has to vent their frustrations both publically and privately (myself included), but IMO you will see an improvement in your concentration and your quality of play if you had a more positive outlook.
GL in September.
Yeh I know man, I'm trying to curb it but it's hard with the relentless pounding away. Hoping for a final quarter to be positive about. And thanks , gl to u2
I've managed to profit every day so far in September. And whilst continuing to run like a no legged thing with no legs. I am up $850 after nearly 11 hours, mostly thanks to 45 mans and not doing too bad in the $60's either. In fact, I've made $1400 in $60's since end of July over 77 games, that's 30% ROI. It's crept back up to 7.5% for the year which is just 439 games. I will never be content until my $60 ROI is 10% minimum.
Sadly, my main game, the $30-18's I am doing the worst in. They are mostly more regged packed than even $60's. I am almost tree fiddy games BE in them and on the usual, regular 50bi downswing in them.
In the 45's I managed a nice 1st and 2nd in $30's yesterday.
There's a few hands I can post. First off, probably the most eventful $3r 180 I've ever played. Things are going ok when I reluctantly shove this and a reg snaps off here with K9o.
Poker Stars $3.19+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1500/t3000 Blinds + t300 - 7 players
TRIPSONLY (BTN): t51561 M = 7.81
legendsydney (SB): t58180 M = 8.82
Temego (BB): t29482 M = 4.47
zakzak76 (UTG): t22525 M = 3.41
nouvek (UTG+1): t18852 M = 2.86
JUANCA5728 (MP): t21494 M = 3.26
Hero (CO): t28092 M = 4.26
Pre Flop: (t6600) Hero is CO with Q 8
3 folds, Hero raises to t27792 all in, TRIPSONLY raises to t51261 all in, 2 folds
Flop: (t62184) J 3 J (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t62184) 3 (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t62184) 8 (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t62184
TRIPSONLY shows 9 K (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
Hero shows Q 8 (two pair, Jacks and Eights)
Hero wins t62184
King fucking nine??!?! I proceeded to berate this reg up to and right through the FT, we're going hell for leather on each other. He had the audacity to tell me to scope him when his results are diabolical...well you can see why!!
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So then, you can imagine what happens next. If I said GUESS what happens next I'm pretty sure alot of you should be able to.
We get to the FT and VERY FIRST HAND he shoves.
Poker Stars $3.19+$0.31 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t3000/t6000 Blinds + t600 - 7 players
Crisco18 (CO): t96195 M = 7.29
Shove.be (BTN): t77878 M = 5.90
pehorka (SB): t189636 M = 14.37
deLarge89 (BB): t128085 M = 9.70
grandfother (UTG): t107082 M = 8.11
TRIPSONLY (UTG+1): t57908 M = 4.39
Hero (MP): t106056 M = 8.03
Pre Flop: (t13200) Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, TRIPSONLY raises to t57308 all in,
Hero raises to t105456 all in, 4 folds
TRIPSONLY shows A 8
Flop: (t127816) Q 2 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t127816) K (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t127816) A (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t127816
TRIPSONLY shows A 8 (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows A A (three of a kind, Aces)
TRIPSONLY wins t127816
Fortunately I came back to knock him out in 5th and got 3rd.
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Today I played two absolute blinders! These were the ONLY meta hands of the day and I was right in both.
Poker Stars $27.78+$2.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds - 5 players -
lallez0r (SB): t2430 16.20 BBs
istack_U5 (BB): t5400 36 BBs
69foldem69 (UTG): t1781 11.87 BBs
danking11 (CO): t3170 21.13 BBs
Hero (BTN): t2350 15.67 BBs
Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is BTN with 3 A
2 folds, Hero raises to t300, lallez0r raises to t675, 1 fold, Hero calls t375
Flop: (t1500) T Q 3 (2 players)
lallez0r checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t1500) Q (2 players)
lallez0r bets t450, Hero calls t450
River: (t2400) T (2 players)
lallez0r bets t1305 all in, Hero calls t1225 all in
Final Pot: t4850
lallez0r shows 7 9 (two pair, Queens and Tens)
Hero shows 3 A (two pair, Queens and Tens - Ace kicker)
Hero wins t4850
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Poker Stars $13.89+$1.11 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 5 players -
padres970 (UTG): t2012 10.06 BBs
Brilijant (CO): t1420 7.10 BBs
YES LADS (BTN): t1835 9.18 BBs
Kerenos (SB): t5395 26.98 BBs
Hero (BB): t3045 15.22 BBs
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with J 7
3 folds, Kerenos raises to t420, Hero calls t220
Flop: (t840) Q 3 3 (2 players)
Kerenos checks, Hero bets t250, Kerenos raises to t625, Hero calls t375
Turn: (t2090) J (2 players)
Kerenos checks, Hero checks
River: (t2090) 5 (2 players)
Kerenos bets t800, Hero calls t800
Final Pot: t3690
Kerenos shows 4 A (a pair of Threes)
Hero shows J 7 (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
Hero wins t3690
Obv I was going to go mental on the river had I not hit. It would've worked unless he calls with Ace high like I do ♦
All tonight's games were as many $30 and $60's as I dared play. At 11.30pm WET there was TWELVE $60's running and FIVE $100's!! Well I don't if it's because I hardly ever check the games out at 11.30pm or what but I'm prettty sure they're not usually running that great! So I HAD to get in the $60's, I mean there were plenty of fish I'd never even seen before. On a monday?!?! Was even tempted to get in my first ever $100 but thought better of it. Nova will certainly be easy to hit if I keep playing those more but we'll see. Got 20k vpp's to get. It's weird how the peak 18m times are nowhere near the same time as overall peak traffic times.
Do you think you're deep enough to call a 3bet w/ A3o? Would you call if he bet the flop?
Also, is J7o your standard blind defense against a reg?
And finally, do YOU understand what they were trying to rep?
With the A3 I was going to min 4b but know the guy is capable of 5b shoving with air. Guess I could have shoved instead but elected to flat and shove almost all turns, w/e the flop is. As it played out I only had to call. Same intention with J7 cause that reg mins every single bvb situation but once again elected on post flop pwnage rather than shoving pre. I usually shove pre but I had to change it as I keep reshoving pre v them. Hope they don't read around here 
leaky hands dude.
1. 4bet shove pre if you put him on air. flatting for 1/4 your stack with A3o is bad. you will have 1 SPR left and he can jam a lot of flops when he has equity and your hand plays horribly.
2. flatting J7o is bad, shove pre if he is MR ATC. even if you shove pre everytime, its still better to jam pre if the guy isnt adjusting by r/c lighter. as played 3bet the flop if you put him on air, by flatting J high you allow him to continue bluffing the turn and your J7 high can not hold up to a turn or river bet.
both of your opponents played these hands absolutely horribly. but your lines aren't the best either IMO
I know them inside out that's how I know when to pick them off. Played probably the most optimal possible, but nice opinion.
Raising flop is usually a terrible line, because it's the most non believable. Flatting flops and shoving turns or betting when checked to is far superior and stronger looking. He jams A high to a flop raise.
Despite only winning $266 today, I feel like celebrating as if I'd won 2 grand!! I was just in the middle of writing this post....
"Today was one of the worst poker days of my life. 63 bricks from 68, and possibly THE NUT WORST day in terms of being card dead. I mean yeh, when I did get something to shove in it lost, but don't think I've ever folded so much ever. In one game I was 10/6 after 100 hands, this is coming from a 25/20 guy 
...
when I had a few games remaining. From those few games I went onto win a $60-18 and then a $3r 180...not 3rd or 2nd...actually won it!!
In general though the day has been extremely painful. The highlight game, apart from those wins, was reaching a $15-180 FT with guess who there once again! Tripsonly. But also alongside were theginger45 and plo ufo, typical 2+2 reg shovetards who I so badly want to beat now I'd gotten them here. Major problem though. Card dead to shit! Actually not card dead, card well n truly cremated! Even worse was I was watching tripsonly spazzing out calling FT shoves in the bb for 10bbs with stuff like A6o, which meant I couldn't shove a damn thing, so I had to let go a few hands I ordinarily wouldn't. Couldn't better 5th, but even that hand should've been a double when my A5s co shove gets called by a random fish with K4
Ah well, time for a beer.