A8s line BvB NL10 MSS

Hi,

I would bet more on flop and 2nd barrel this turn. Considering this player's stats I think there are many connectors in his range. Then my plan would be c/f river.

It's a good standard line, in your opinion though after we double barrel and then check then check the river, how often do you think he's bluffing with a missed draw that we then have to c/f? Would it be rare or often

Originally posted by JohnDoe1313
I would bet more on flop and 2nd barrel this turn. Considering this player's stats I think there are many connectors in his range. Then my plan would be c/f river.

If you think his range is consisting of many connectors then betting does not make sense

Given the fact he checked back on the Turn, you can exclude them all out most of the time. JT completes though but since his range is vague, I can see myself bluffcatching here some % of the time

Best regards,
Gerv

thanks gerv

Originally posted by Gerv
If you think his range is consisting of many connectors then betting does not make sense

Could you explain why not? Many connectors have weaker pair + draw, flushdraw, gutshots we could get value from.

Board: 9♠8♠6♣ 4♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     43.95%  43.95%   0.00% { Ad8d }
BB     56.05%  56.05%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 77, A9s, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

Considering 99,88,66 would raise flop I think our equity is good enough to bet again

slight change to his range i dont think he would call the flop flop with KTs, he might fold QTs unless they were spades (yu just put KTs etc in general), i also dont think hes calling the turn with hands like 56s etc.

My bad, KT-QT should be in We can exclude 65o too, ok. The EQ is 40.75% then.

Originally posted by JohnDoe1313

Originally posted by Gerv
If you think his range is consisting of many connectors then betting does not make sense

Could you explain why not? Many connectors have weaker pair + draw, flushdraw, gutshots we could get value from.

Board: 9♠8♠6♣ 4♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     43.95%  43.95%   0.00% { Ad8d }
BB     56.05%  56.05%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 77, A9s, KTs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

Considering 99,88,66 would raise flop I think our equity is good enough to bet again

Well you are playing against a Callingstation so assuming you mean we are semibluffing (since we are clearly not ahead on the Turn) we need fold equity.

Therefore:

Board: 9♠8♠6♣ 4♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    61.03%  61.03%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 77-66, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, KcTc, QsTs, QcTc, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, A9o, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
MP3    38.97%  38.97%   0.00% { Ad8d }

Yes we are not far behind but we have a very low FEQ statistic which brings us to the River most of the time. Then we are forced to 3barrel A LOT against him on the River while the RIver can complete the draws.

I do not want to 3barrel bluff against this player while I can easily get his money by valuebetting in other spots

Hope it makes sense

So it's not about turn equity, it's about that we have still river to play? If we put him on draws, we can't check/fold because we'll get bluffed too often and I see there's no point in barreling a fish on this limit. Do I understand it right?

Originally posted by JohnDoe1313
So it's not about turn equity, it's about that we have still river to play?

The game does not end on the Turn yes that's correct

If we put him on draws, we can't check/fold because we'll get bluffed too often and I see there's no point in barreling a fish on this limit. Do I understand it right?

We do not put something on only draws or only made hands or only air. We made an assessment of his range consisting of x% draws, y% made hands etc.

You want to check/call the Turn but what are you going to do on the River? check/call again? if you check/fold the River, what do you gain by check/calling? I do not think this guy is going to stop betting when he blanks on the River. It's not so much about balancing/exploitation here which I can get out of your questions

- Gerv

Sorry, I expressed myself wrong. This opinion

If we put him on draws, we can't check/fold because we'll get bluffed too often and I see there's no point in barreling a fish on this limit. Do I understand it right?

was about our river play if we bet turn and get called. I mean if we put him on draws and none will be completed on river it'll be a guessing game whether to bluffcatch since he can still have a made hand and tripple barreling with weak hand isn't good.

I agree check/calling turn would be horrible play.

I still think we are behind against the made hands if I correctly assessed the situation if we bet the Turn, Rivercard = not complete draw

It is still a frequency thing where he mostly valuebets better 99% of the time and an unknown % of the time he bluffs. I still think people do not bluff often enough to make this a slamdunk check/call on the River when we bet the Turn

- Gerv