Villain 200 hands:
15/11 nit with 5% 3bet. All this 3bet % comes from the BB in which he averages 13% so far.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.20)
BB ($20.30)
UTG ($23.43)
UTG+1 ($9.60)
CO ($14.08)
Hero ($27.45)
Dealt to Hero T♣ 9♣
fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, BB raises to $2, fold, Hero calls $1.20
FLOP ($4.30) T♥ 8♦ 6♠
BB bets $2.15, Hero calls $2.15
TURN ($8.60) T♥ 8♦ 6♠ J♥
BB bets $4.60, Hero calls $4.60
RIVER ($17.80) T♥ 8♦ 6♠ J♥ 2♣
BB bets $11.55 (AI)
Called pre because of the odds, his 3bet from BB and him probabply not being the most tricky player.
called flop because he might be a one barrel monkey in 3bps( has cbet both of the times his 3bet got called so far).
on the turn I do not see him bluffing anymore, I doubt that he is going to be multibarrelling a hand like AK. I still have 28% vs TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, KhQh; I need 26% for a profitable call. I do not believe that he will tripple barrel bluff me off my hand often, also, I believe that my implieds are higher thatn the loss incurred by folding on the river vs a worse hand and by calling when making trip and paying off a boat.
River is a clear fold...
Are my assumptions reasonable?
Especially as you said yourself we are against a nit? Cause obviously we would need from him his whole stack to play this profitable.