nl10 sh KK UTG

Hi,

I think b/f or c/c are both fine options. With KK I would prefer b/f to get value Qx and some medium pp-s. Very few people would shove river as bluff, so with overpairs it is usually better to b/f

best regards,

I think we first have to ask does he 3bet AA/QQ/AQ pre? If he is super aggro on the river a CC is prob best to give himself a big bluff range. Also has he bluffed like this before? Does he overplay is TP type hands? If he is capable of this as bluffs or TP hands which high river agg suggests, then you only need 50% equity to call which you probably have.

I think betting is clearly superior to checking. You might want to compare EV of checking vs betting by splitting up his range into worse value hands (QX) and bluffs (busted draws), with the assumptions that he never bluff raises you on the River if you bet. It's a little long for the calculations so I won't try to explain it here.

But as mentioned by Kaitz, KK is better for a bet, simply because i think BTN has way more QX hands than busted flush draws. If board was more coordinated, this decision might be closer cos he would now have more busted straight draws too (but would probably still be a bet).

He's passive so I think he may very well check behind AQ which would be extremely terrible for us.

We lose the same amt of money vs his nuts if we bet/fold vs check/call. Of course that's provided our assumptions that he never bluff raises us is correct (which I think is true 90%+ of the time vs this particular opponent). So main thing is whether we make more by betting for value vs worse QX or by bluff catching vs busted draws.

AQ (12 combos) -> 4 As X 3 Qs
KQ (6 combos) -> 2 Ks X 3 Qs
QJs (3 combos)
QTs (3 combos)

24 combos of QX which may call our river bet

A3hh to AJhh (9 combos)
JThh, T9hh, J9hh, T8hh, 89hh, 67hh, 79hh, 56hh, 57hh, 68hh (10 combos)

19 combos of busted flush draws which may bluff River

I assumed here that he always bluffs 8Xhh and 6Xhh. I think there's a very good chance he takes his showdown value.

We won't know whether he always calls QX. For example he may fold QT to a river bet. Also we don't know whether he always bluffs his busted flush draws. For example some people tend to check down AXhh cos Ace high has showdown value.

But I think you can see that 24 > 19 so this is a bet.