Originally posted by Festfingre
With 99-JJ i would expect villain to fold in most cases.
Do you think he would call? and what would he hope to accomplish?
My main thought is that he went for a steal with either suited connectors
or K9+, and when the draw didn't complete i guess he would have to
have Kx to call on the turn. (Or a loose caller with nut flushdraw)
He might also have pocket 8's or 3's, and when he got full house he
decided to call instead of a raise on the turn.
Am i right in anything here?
Please correct me where i'm wrong
Thanks
In spots like this I would expect most villains to call 2nd pair type hands for one street. He would be bluffcatching as this is a flop where people bluff often (of course it hits our perceived range of AK/QQ+). As you move up in limits most people will call at least one street here with those hands.
We also have to look at an overall range so we shouldn't say that he went for a steal with connectors and K9 and then ignore the rest of his range (pairs, Ax hands, etc). I would say that an unknown could have a pretty wide preflop calling range here and thus his range continuing the flop would be Kx (KJ/KQ/AK and some K9/KT if he is really loose), some pairs 99-JJ, some 8x, some draws ( I say some because there aren't many, AJcc, ATcc, KJcc, TJcc, some connectors).
So on the turn, especially if you don't think 99-JJ would make it there, we are facing either a Kx hand or a draw. Now draws are very few so lets list the combos:
AJ/AT = 2 combos, JT =1 combo, T9 = 1 combo, 76 = 1 combo (anything else either has a pair like KT/KJ or it's too weak to really consider in his range). So we are looking at about 5 combos of draws.
Now Kx is a lot more combos. KQ alone is 2 Q x 3 K which is 6 combos. KJ is 4 J x 3 K which is 12 combos, and so on.
So you can see that his range is skewed towards stronger hands so our turn bet doesn't really make much sense. We can't get value from much worse, we can't get him to fold better.
