Hey, bro
Stats, my opinion:
How about total Aqq? How about turn Aqq?
I'm asking, because River Agg 22,9 seems pretty low. But I'm not sure, because I'm using PokerTrakcer and there Cheks aren't included in this parameter (that's why AFq in PT higher, then in HM)
About hands
1) How about his float IP on Turn?
I'm thinking about check/raise line on Turn for us.
"+"
* We'll get money from bluffs float/folds
* We could get fold by Kx (so, we're playing semi-bluff with fold equity vs best hands).
Note: we block nuts flush, so he can't have a lot of monster for push.
* We still have eq vs his calls.
"-"
* We could get push and lost our FD eq, but I don't see monsters in his range. (KK - 3bets preflop, 88, 55 - often raises flop for value and defence, K8, K5, Q8, Q5 - out of preflop coldcall range, and we're blocking nuts flush, so there aren't a lot of flush combinations + KQ - 2 Qs played out). How about his folds vs Cbet flop IP? How wide we rate his range on Turn?
"What about push?"
Hmmmmm... problem that for our FoldEquity opponent have to bet thin value on this board.
On another hand, we represent very strong hands (QQ+ or flushes and better)
He haven't KK, QQ and Nuts Flushes. So - that's a very hard decision for him.
"-"
* wtst 28, w$sd 48 - he can overplay some hands.
We need more information - Fold vs Cbet Flop IP, Fold vs Cbet Turn IP, Raise vs Cbet Flop IP, Raise vs Cbet Turn IP, Float River% - all to determine his river bet range here. WTSD and W$SD - how many samples?
Anyway I'm still thinking that's strong push, because that's really hard call for him. Surely, if we haven't c/r river 88,3 %
:f_biggrin:
But I'm really sleepy now) Time to go to bed)))
2) "I knew that he is overbeting for value, but it was interesting to see his hand, isnt it?"
I'm thinking, we nearly never beat him here