Broken RNG

It is an interesting thought experiment. You could repeat that situation over and over and end up winning a significant multiple of first prize in a single SnG.

1) just like in cash games, a tracker can only calculate ai ev, which isn't the whole story.
2) any calculation like this going to be inaccurate

I stand by my assertion that all you can deduce is that you ran very badly, since the ev calculation is imperfect. It's not rigged. This thread is really just an epic whinge post. I know because I have a history of doing the same, although I've never been able to put this much effort into my whinging. OP is a pro whinger imo.

Originally posted by jbpatzer
This thread is really just an epic whinge post.

I don't think this is a whinge thread. All I did was presenting my findings and opinion based on intelligent deduction while looking for some sound advice on where I did wrong.

Although next 100 posts turned into a weird discussion that's mainly caused by some people lack of reason, I still don't think I complained at all. Obviously some people don't understand how simulator works. Again, it is simulator and not calculator. If I'm bothered I could try to explain it again in more detail, in a way that you can't possibly argue anything, but I'm sure you would find a way.

I'm aware that the EV is calculated wrongly but I noticed the completely opposite trend. Because I'm getting so many set-ups I'm getting tons of EV adjustments like -25$, -19$, -23$ etc while no matter how many times I'm dominating them, I can't find positive one bigger then 35$. Keep in mind that I'm playing 15$ SnGs where first prize is 39$ profit. So it's almost never going above max profit but it's very often going into negative of up to 2 times my max loss.

I should be having +80$ EV as easy as -30$ one, considering I'm dominated and dominating equal amount of time. I guess that's the way it sort of equals over large amount of SnGs.
You assume that EV error is somehow explaining my over the top downswing but that is actually another thing which is masking it's true magnitude.

Originally posted by w34z3l
Please just run the same simulation for 8k games and find the probability of your specific ROI.

Probability of your ROI over 32k hands is x^4 where x is the probability of your ROI over an 8k sample.

That's of course assuming the stuff in your OP is all correct. I didn't actually bother to read it.

Thanks, we are finally getting somewhere.

In 8k games my chance for 0% ROi is 0.4% or 0.004.

0.004^4 = 0.000000000256

0.000000000256 is 1 in 3.906.250.000.

EDIT: Actually, 0% ROI is still 0.5% ROI above my downswing so I should change my expected ROI from 5.13% to 5.6% for bigger accuracy

With 5.4% Actual ROI:

In 8k games my chance for 0% ROi is 0.2% or 0.002.

0.002^4 = 0.000000000016

0.000000000016 is 1 in 62.500.000.000

Good enough for me.

One quick question: why do you assume that you should be dominating just as much as you are dominated?

that's not a fairness thing, it's a question of what cards you play. if you play only aces, you won't be dominated.

anyway, what I really wanted to say was that I think it's going to be very difficult for you to prove that any poker site deliberately targeted you as a player to receive especially large amount of bad luck.

on the other hand I can almost guarantee that if you pay for an hours coaching from any decent sng coach, they will find a number of leaks in your game fixing which will increase both real and ev ROI.

best of luck to you.

Originally posted by VladimirN
Thanks, we are finally getting somewhere.

Given what I've seen earlier in the post --- and actually completely in line with my first post in the thread -- there is clearly a problem with how EV is calculated for SnGs. You are working with incorrect data to begin with, so I disagree that we are actually getting anywhere.

You are probably losing at SnGs because you are not very good......

I agree with Tim64, look into getting a decent sng coach for a few hours.

Originally posted by w34z3l

Originally posted by VladimirN
Thanks, we are finally getting somewhere.

Given what I've seen earlier in the post --- and actually completely in line with my first post in the thread -- there is clearly a problem with how EV is calculated for SnGs. You are working with incorrect data to begin with, so I disagree that we are actually getting anywhere.

You are probably losing at SnGs because you are not very good......

I agree with Tim64, look into getting a decent sng coach for a few hours.

I think this is harsh. The calculation may not be perfect, but if he's running a shitload below EV according to a rational but inaccurate calculation, I think there's at the very least no evidence that he's not very good, and probably the opposite. It's a shame it's so hard to find a good SnG coach. Maybe Tim could suggest one.....

Admittedly the poor guy is probably running a long way below EV.

I think he's going the wrong way about dealing with it though. I'd rather be a little harsh and ultimately save him a bunch of time/money when his lawsuit vs stars fails.

I can't really help out any further in this thread, I don't even know where to download the ROI simulator.

Best of luck to OP whatever he decides to do.

I would just love to see the lawsuit..

I mean on what legal basis can you institute action because, according to your software, you have been "to" unlucky whiles playing a game which, according to most if not all countries, is a form of gambling?

It is like walking into a live casino and playing the same number on a rollette table 40 times. Then suing the casino because you did not hit once on the basis that you, statistically speaking, should have hit.

Ater a bit of consideration this is my opinion:

Specifically any claim you may wish to institute would have to be based on breach of contract. Therefore you would have to rely on specific terms of the agreement which you would have to proof was breached.

The terms of the agreement may be found here http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/tos/

There is no term that the RNG would be 100%!

There probably is a requirement from whomever they got their licence that the RNG must be AUDITED. This is done.

Therefore in my opinion you will have no cause of action to begin with.

Ok let us assume I am wrong and you have some sort of cause of action. How will a trial go?

Poker stars will call someone who granted their licence and during his testimony submit their Audited certificate of their RNG.

What EVIDENCE would you submit? Please note that screenshots or printouts from some program will not be admissible because strictly speaking it would be hearsay. Furthermore, depending on the jurisdiction, there may be some other restriction on this type of documentary evidence.

You would have to call some expert witness who is an expert in math and maybe poker (maybe if he could be a well known professor it would help LOL) and he would then have to testify and persuade a Judge, who for the most part already believes poker is 100% gambling, that because of a fault in the Poker Stars Client you have lost money. Thereafter you would have to quantify your damages.

In my humble opinion this will not happen.

In conclusion all your simulations and calculations above is of no use for purpose of any court case. Even if you had a legal basis for your claim these test needs to be done by your expert witness. Pro Tip: The best qualified person in the world, IMHO, has already responded to you above and he was not supportive. ♠_cool:

TRY TO IMPROVE OR LET IT GO.

I agree with other people that holding onto these feelings of being cheated is only going to keep hurting you.

You said you experienced "running normal" on other sites. I cannot understand why you don't play there instead if you believe this.

Looking at this thread it seems you have a very harming mindset at the moment. And mindset is so important in poker. There was a time where I was like 40 or so buy ins below EV (I think I still am but I try not to check anymore) and even that put me through a slump where I felt like I could not win no matter what I did. It is so damaging to go into a game thinking you cannot win. Confidence and mindset issues can EASILY prevent you from playing your A-Game (and even B game). Seeing this thread I honestly doubt you can play your A-Game while you have these accumulated feelings. All it takes is one beat and SNAP you're back there again where emotions block out the highest level of analytical thinking.

I can only imagine what it feels like to see yourself running 428 BI below your EV line in HEM. It must be pretty soul destroying.

Most people in poker don't get this unlucky. But life isn't fair, and in general you are probably much luckier than other people. In fact, I guarantee you are much luckier than millions of people simply because you have the luxury of playing 50,000 games of an internet card game.

This thread is still running.

In order to prove that a (psuedo) RNG is broken, you must prove that you can predict the next event (card/suckout, whatever) with a non-negligible edge.

Simulations are insufficient to prove this. No matter how bad you run, it is always still possible to lose, and run way under EV. Saying the chances of it happening are 1:10^100 is insufficient to show that the RNG is broken, or the site is rigged - simply because this is still possible with a perfect RNG.

I understand that you want to show how unlikely your downswing is. It seems like it's pretty bad, but you cannot deny that it is possible, even if it is only 1 in (large number). Where is that going to get you? It doesn't prove anything, more unlikely things have certainly occurred, no matter what you decide the chances of your downswing are.

Theres a 99.9% chance that with all your whacky math something is incorrect

I will ask you nicely again, to stop generalizing and making false assumptions based on nothing, or most often contradicting common sense.

First of all, I don't have a negative mindset, and all of this have exactly zero influence on my playing. You tilted with 40 BIs under EV? Fine, that is you. I don't tilt. I don't even give it one thought while playing my session.
I meditate and that taught me how to cope with stressful situations rather amazingly. My father had a heart attack recently, I called an ambulance and resuscitated him while staying as calm as I am now typing this. After ambulance arrived, I checked my heart rate which was 80bpm while my resting bpm is 70 (I check my heart rate all the time). If anything, stress sharpens my mind so I can do the right thing when needed. If anything I'm playing better with the downswings.

I agree that I can improve my game. Can't we all? Although I'm happy with my Actual ROI of 5% I am surely improving and I know exactly where I'm lacking:
1) Not enough 3-betting (especially BvB)
2) Pushing maybe too tight against loose players

I am going to correct that, but can you please explain to me the correlation between playing good/bad and running incredible amount of BIs under EV? I'm just dying to find out about the relevance of your posts.

I got a weird visual memory. I remember most of my relevant hands in the past 2-3 days be it winning or losing ones. And this is not just 'a feeling'. My 'feeling' is amazingly accurate. But regardless, what I've put in my OP are pretty accurate estimates based on tracking software research. I'd say that there is only about 5% chance for my downswing to be less then 1600 BIs under EV.

The thing is, you can't even start to imagine what I'm talking about. If anything, I believe that big number of you who are calling me bad are actually extremely lucky and you have no idea what running bad means. As I said, I experienced running normal (or even slightly good) on other platform and it was heaven, too easy. I left that site because there were too few tables, too many regs and too big of a rake.

If you say that accounts don't matter, who is willing to switch their account with mine and check it out for 2-3 months and see your results in that period?

As of the lawsuit. I'd give my hands to experts, they would determine the probability and it would be used as an evidence.
Now, what I can get with it, that I don't know. Hopefully I can get them to do the real test of their RNG which could prove something. Unless, of course my downswing is so unlikely that it could directly prove that something is wrong with the RNG.

EDIT: I'm running ~40 BIs under EV from March the 1st and I consider that to be the standard in the past 5 years. Now go think again about your 40 BIs downswing and get back to me if you can even start to imagine what I'm talking about.

I think it must be very frustrating for you that your claims are not really being taken seriously. I can't help you with that because I don't have the mathematical skills. I've experienced being 100BI below EV but nothing like you have. You have my sympathy.

However, it does seem to me that:

1. It might not be enough to show that the chances of your particular below EV run are almost negligible; you might have to demonstrate why a poker site would have any incentive to cause one particular player (out of a pool of many hundreds of thousands) to suffer an almost impossible amount of bad luck. It's clear to me that any normal person would likely give up playing poker in the face of that and therefore fixing the RNG in such a way would likely cause them to lose business (for no obvious benefit). It's not as if all your bad luck is benefiting only weaker players - the regs are benefiting too. But the poker site isn't benefiting at all as far as I can see.

2. If you are wanting to say that the RNG is not rigged but rather broken, it's hard to understand how the error could affect just one player.

3. As an ex-lawyer, I have to agree with others here: I really don't think your proposed lawsuit stands any chance of success (even if you happen to be 100% correct in your claims). I think it's just too hard to prove to the level of certainty that a court would require and furthermore I am not sure you could even get the lawsuit off the ground (is there a clear breach of contract or tortious act?).

What all this means is that I think it's almost certain that you would be better off spending your energy on improving and/or move to another site and just accept that that site isn't going to let you win.

I don't think I can help further so I'll bow out now.

Regards.

"As of the lawsuit. I'd give my hands to experts, they would determine the probability and it would be used as an evidence.
Now, what I can get with it, that I don't know. Hopefully I can get them to do the real test of their RNG which could prove something. Unless, of course my downswing is so unlikely that it could directly prove that something is wrong with the RNG"

I do not think you understand my meaning. Let me make it clear.

Above this post you have the benefit of a free opinions of at least two lawyers with more than 20years of experience telling you that, even if you can proof your claims you do not have a claim. You have the benefit of a professor in maths with about the same amount of experience and who is very well read in the maths of poker who is saying, although in his more "indirect" way, that your claims cannot be proofed.

Still you go on.

This road will take you nowhere.

Thanks for your comments. I apologize, I didn't realize you two are lawyers.

Tim, I'll answer your points later tonight but I got a quick question for now:

(my knowledge on this field is limited, so please bear with me)
Could my downswing and math behind it, be used not as direct evidence, but as something that can force a proper RNG testing which might or might not reveal some flaws in RNG? And then those RNG tests to be used as an evidence if something ends up being wrong.

PS: Just out of curiosity: How do you even test RNG fairness if any downswing can happen and can be attributed to chance and bad luck?

do you have a graph of 1600BI bellow ev btw?