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fish overbetshoves flop - population read?

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alderfalder
Joined: 16.01.2010

EDIT: Might be wrong here. feel free to move it into the strategy section^^

I want to talk a bit about this certain spot:

You got a tablespot (1tabling,you saw him limping, 60/20 stats on first 20 hands) but more or less still completely unknown.

One thing they love to do is just shipping the flop. (push Flop against your cbet. Donkpush multiway... whatever)

I mean, rangewise it's a pretty easy strategy to beat. Your odds are so bad that it's good if you just call nuts. But after seeing a lot of crappy hands they did it with I don't know whether I'm missing too much value by folding too much...

Would like to hear some more comments, whether you can make some kind of population-fish-read in this case.

Here two examples to demonstrate what I mean. ( Just having my small laptop database here, but you will remember some spots where this happened to you in a similar way)

Spoiler

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1,419.50) 142bb
CO ($1,249) 125bb
BTN ($881.80) 88bb
alderfalder (SB) ($1,000) 100bb
BB ($1,054.50) 105bb

Pre-Flop: ($15, 5 players) alderfalder is SB A♣ A♦
UTG raises to $25, 2 folds, alderfalder raises to $95, 1 fold, UTG calls $70

Flop: J♦ J♥ Q♣ ($200, 2 players)
alderfalder bets $132, UTG goes all-in $1,324.50, $773 to alderfalder ($773)?

Spoiler

€2/€4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (€418) 105bb
UTG+1 (€743.67) 186bb
alderfalder (CO) (€591.66) 148bb
BTN (€455.40) 114bb
SB (€247.27) 62bb
BB (€442.01) 111bb

Pre-Flop: (€6, 6 players) alderfalder is CO K♦ K♠
2 folds, alderfalder raises to €12, 1 fold, SB calls €10, BB calls €8

Flop: 5♣ 6♠ 4♦ (€36, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, alderfalder bets €26, SB goes all-in €235.27, BB folds, €209.27 to alderfalder (€553.66)?


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8 replies
tolari
Joined: 02.11.2010

I think you can always put him on a range, I've seen recreational players doing this with with under pocket paris, all kinds of draws, nuts, TP, very rarely pure bluff but it also happens...

so first case:
TT+, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+

AA has 61,3% equity

second case:
99-33, A6s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A6o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o

KK has 42,7% equity

what do you think about these ranges?


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alderfalder
Joined: 16.01.2010

seems pretty solid actually. Assuming he is shoving some kind of range there should be better than just thinking:"does he have it or not?"

That you rarely see random purebluffs is true if I remember right.
Above I was writing as if I would be folding a lot. True is, that I gamble a lot vs fish, so I called both.

Both hands villains showed me were in your range (or in second case almost in your range^^).

It's hard to guess what fish's range actually look like, so if there are some more experienced guys can write what they've seen so far would be gr8, to getting a feeling whether these ranges are more or less realistic or not:)


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Lackoogcb
Joined: 16.04.2008

I think it is always about history and paying attention, you can decide he tilts so hard or not. If you just sat down to the table I would be on a tight side and fold in close situations

but when they tilt so hard:

haha


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Lackoogcb
Joined: 16.04.2008

I have a similar question:

what should we do when we are 400bb and the fish as well, he calls anything preflop, so we 20bb 3bet w AA and he calls. Flop comes: QJJs, and he is SUPER agro, x/r a lot even with air, barelling, x/overbet shoving nuts / pure bluffs, etc. What we should do on flop IP? I don't really want to bet/broke 400bb :) checkback and let him doublebarell? or valuebet 2 str?

and what can we do when we are even OOP?


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tolari
Joined: 02.11.2010

bet/call flop, call turn call river - reload/do a happy dance


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

this is a 3bet pot. I don't see how this isn't a snap? Given SPR he can have so many worse hands like AQ KQ KT T9s etc. Fishes love bluffing at paired flops too.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

2nd hand is closer, now it's a single raised pot, draw is rainbow and super coordinated. He has around 60BB which is around the cut off point for me to call it off. If he did this with 80bb+ i think this would definitely be a fold for me, if he has 50bb or less I think i would see many worse overpairs or top pairs pretty often so I would call.


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fusionpk
Joined: 21.01.2010

Originally posted by mbml
2nd hand is closer, now it's a single raised pot, draw is rainbow and super coordinated. He has around 60BB which is around the cut off point for me to call it off. If he did this with 80bb+ i think this would definitely be a fold for me, if he has 50bb or less I think i would see many worse overpairs or top pairs pretty often so I would call.

perfect imo


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