Making a counter semi bluff in blind battle

Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.

/Johan =

Originally posted by YohanN7
Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.

wouldn't this same logic apply to any semibluff situation? raising always offers worse odds than calling.

Originally posted by redskwerl

Originally posted by YohanN7
Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.

wouldn't this same logic apply to any semibluff situation? raising always offers worse odds than calling.

Yes, you are right. The odds aren't the relevant thing really. One should count the EV in bets.

I like semibluffing more when a call would be marginal, or even bad because the bluff part (folding equity) goes way up in value. What I mean is that a 0-EV or slightly -EV play (calling) may often be turned into +EV by raising. Here calling is already very +EV. I'm not sure we can get even better EV by raising in this spot. It would depend on the opponent.

But there are arguments for raising too, sure. Our SD value is pretty bad, so a fold from the opponent would be very tasty.

/Johan =

If you are going to peel this flop x/r you have to bluff the turn, doing otherwise makes no sense because you don't have the odds just to peel for your outs and this is going to be one of the weakest hands in your range making it absolutely perfect/mandatory to semi-bluff

If you had a hand like K or Q-High then calling the turn is fine becasue you have Sd value and to raise all your FD's would be both predictable and overbluffy

What about your action if you are in villian spot ?

Originally posted by sim5sim5
What about your action if you are in villian spot ?

a) Call down
b) I wouldn't raise this on the flop so moot point
c) I'm assuming you mean a 2 here. Assuming I raise some 2's they would probably be the bottom of my value range and thus a bet/fold on the turn (i.e. the worst 2s in my range)

EDIT: Never mind. The answer is in your post.

Originally posted by Boomer2k10
If you are going to peel this flop x/r you have to bluff the turn, doing otherwise makes no sense because you don't have the odds just to peel for your outs and this is going to be one of the weakest hands in your range making it absolutely perfect/mandatory to semi-bluff

If you had a hand like K or Q-High then calling the turn is fine becasue you have Sd value and to raise all your FD's would be both predictable and overbluffy

Why mandatory to bluff turn?

I think that the turn card changes things. At the turn spot it doesn't matter much how we got there in my opinion. [Why possibly compound possible previous mistakes?] Should we bluff turn given the board layout (and nothing else) or not?

/Johan =