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NL200 AQs

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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

IPoker, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (UTG): $200 (100 bb)
MP: $368.34 (184.2 bb)
CO: $473.85 (236.9 bb)
BTN: $46.19 (23.1 bb)
SB: $94.71 (47.4 bb)
BB: $186 (93 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $6, MP folds, CO calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: ($15) K 7 K (2 players)
Hero bets $10.50, CO calls $10.50

Turn: ($36) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $25.20, CO calls $25.20

River: ($86.40) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $60.48, CO raises to $432.15, Hero?? (98 more to call)

(BTN and BB are fish, 33/10 and 46/0)

Villain:
24/20
46 fold to cbet flop (no sample T-R)
24 WTS
(950 hands)
Other relevant stats over this small sample size?

I will have AK (not sure if KJ is a bet?), 98dd, T9dd, JTdd, QTdd, QJdd, A2-AQdd, 77, QQ, KQ, KK so this hand is pretty high up in our range.

But is really the average nl200 reg turning enough hands into bluffs here?

Would you be more inclinced to call it off if you think/know villain views you as aggressive?


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6 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi..

U also need to consider the fact that he could potentially be overplaying worse flushes. You need to defend ard 55% of your range and you do have a queen blocker whih is great when u can block some combos of KQim probably calling here and im feeling ok about it.

Thanks.


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Turn c/c? I do not see too much value in betting turn and he does not fold better hand here.


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

Yeah a turn c/call might be a better play. Didn't even consider that for a second. He may or may not call again with 88-JJ, A7s, 87s, some FDs so I don't think a turnbet is that bad anyway.

Ended up folding OTR though, timed out... and I really hate it. Have gotten into a bad habit of folding in these kind of spots lately when I face a riveraise just because I have lost every single big pot for 2 months now. I also folded in the other AQ hand where I had top trips against the fish, timed out again.. Time for a change of mindset and site I guess :)


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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

You raise from UTG so I don't except him to call 88-JJ here and I don't think he has too much 7x here. :)


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axelphoney
Joined: 03.10.2009

I am pretty sure he calls 88-JJ. 3betting would mean turning those good hands into bluffs and folding would be outrageous. A7s, 87s yeah probably not a call unless there are fish left to act after him. Can't remember but I am pretty sure there is at least one fish left to act. I did however not mention that in the analysis so for that sake let's just dismiss it and pretend there are only regs BTN-BB :)


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I think turn cc is better. Forgot to mention that. Very unlikely for villain to call jj or worse again for reasons mentioned by bisovic.

Btw i think bisovic is referring to the turn, not to preflop.


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