NL50 KK 290bb deep line check.

Given the stats on SB i think you played it fine as he has a wide range

Any further reads on SB?

What bugs me is that its SB is cc4b COvsMP and CO made rather large thus his range might be more tight than expected

Vs u/k i might fold river

Hey guys,

Once a NL50 guy cold 4bets 290bb deep, he will quite often have AA. When he bets the flop like this, he still most often has AA, sometimes decides to not give up on his preflop bluff. On the turn, all that range checks becase the Q is the ultimate scare card.

Now, when he bets the river, he is unlikely bluffing because Hero reps JJ+, maybe AQ sometimes. If he is vbetting, he has KK+ so my first thought is: Hero never calls. Hero has option to shove and rep TT, QQ or fold if he thinks villain won't fold enough of the time. My line is always to shove here since Villain puts himself into a face up hand situation and quite weak for postflop given the board structure and our perceived range. If we have TT+ we very often play the same: preflop value vs fish, when 4bet so deep, mostly set mining.

The call line is the standard -EV line 90% of people take probably so you don't lose much since when you exchange places, everyone gives you the money back.

sry y forgot to talk a little bit about table dynamics:

- i was perceived very aggro 3bettor at the table (15 3b on 114hands), i was const 3betting vs MP whale, and Villain observed that, that's one fact.

- the other fact is that villain cold 4b me one more time( see cold 4bstat.)

- given these facts i belive Villain's range is wider than AA, and contains JJ+, AQ+(mabye TT).

Were you always 290bb deep when 3betting and when you got cold 4bet? What happened when he cold 4bet you then?

Just because his preflop range is wider a bit, it doesn't change his postflop one that much imo since JJ, AQ are on the weaker side once you call, QQ bets turn this deep very often, esp if you have a more aggressive dynamic so river is still 90% KK+.

Were you always 290bb deep when 3betting and when you got cold 4bet?

aprox 250bb.

What happened when he cold 4bet you then?

folded.

thanks.

Did he have the same sizing? Keep in mind this usually only changes his preflop range, postflop, he still splits his range the same way and either barrels or checks in other spots with hands like AQ, JJ, TT, QQ so river line wouldn't change much in my view.

Even considering the chances he has AQ as a thin vbet sometimes, instead of winning enough of the time agianst AQ and KK+ (makes no sense for him to bet Qx though, what do we call that AQ beats really?) we win 100% of the time if we assume he folds AA which he should. I haven't seen anyone call this spot when gets shoved on for the rest of the stack yet since he has to assume you turn KK into a bluff which nobody does, proof that both you guys who are very solid NL50 regs, about to move to NL100 agree strongly on calling.

I'll not comment on your lines (almost every line can be argued here, just depending on the information you provide). I don't see any line here that is completely unreasonable, just a question of our assumptions.

I'll provide my thoughts here though:
Preflop absolutely standard for all the obvious reasons. Not enough dynamic to 5bet to induce so nothing else to do preflop than calling and playing KK ip yada yada. Flop again fairly standard call, both our ranges are fairly wide and include all strong and medium strength hands. We probably don't have AA in our range but other than that both players can have strong SCs and high pairs mostly. No reason to fold or raise on the flop for us. Same reasons as why we don't 5bet pre. Turn Q, rb board, and villain checks. I would bet here for a few reasons: We don't cap our range at all (which we don't necessarily with a check behind, but I still prefer a bet for our range overall), we can set the price and decide how much money is going into the pot, we make villain open play his hand more face up than he'd like to. All gutshots and OESD hit the Q, so basically all floats except four combos of 87s. I think 67s combos would bluff raise or fold mostly. Let's not count them because we will sometimes also semi bluff raise 87, probably similar frequency as calling 67s and floating. You might say we have overcard floats like AK or AJs(bd fd on flop) for a few combos as well; I agree. Other than that we either have a straight, trips, a full house or JJ/KK. Betting the Turn gives us two options: i) checking behind the River like a scared school girl or JB, since we cannot expect to get value from worse and call AA ii) shoving River like a monkey.

Two benefits of betting Turn and shoving River: a) If villain has AA we credibly rep QQ, trips, FH ... I'd say we rep those hands very well. Most regulars, even aggressive ones who might think their image is aggro, will probably fold here as long as we are perceived as strong and reasonable regular as well. b) If villain has QJ, KQ, AQ here (likely option given cold 4b ranges + how the hand played out) He blocks a few hands that make the nuts, especially QQ which will be the biggest consideration here (we wont 3b 99/TT/T9 vs a fish all the time, right?).

Hence, we have an awesome spot for a two-way-bet which will fold out better and might get called by worse. Bi-winning!

Originally posted by TwiceT
Betting the Turn gives us two options: i) checking behind the River like a scared school girl or JB, since we cannot expect to get value from worse and call AA ii) shoving River like a monkey.

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
Hey guys,

Once a NL50 guy cold 4bets 290bb deep, he will quite often have AA. When he bets the flop like this, he still most often has AA, sometimes decides to not give up on his preflop bluff. On the turn, all that range checks becase the Q is the ultimate scare card.

Now, when he bets the river, he is unlikely bluffing because Hero reps JJ+, maybe AQ sometimes. If he is vbetting, he has KK+ so my first thought is: Hero never calls. Hero has option to shove and rep TT, QQ or fold if he thinks villain won't fold enough of the time. My line is always to shove here since Villain puts himself into a face up hand situation and quite weak for postflop given the board structure and our perceived range. If we have TT+ we very often play the same: preflop value vs fish, when 4bet so deep, mostly set mining.

The call line is the standard -EV line 90% of people take probably so you don't lose much since when you exchange places, everyone gives you the money back.

Excellent analysis from both Manu and TwiceT

I believe given the dynamics, Villain may not have AA as often as we think. If it was Zoom where people dont pay too much attention on who is doing what, we can expect his c4b to be AA most of the times

Once we check the turn its hard for us to rep a FH by shoving as we would have bet the turn to build up the pot. It would still be extremely tough for villain to call with AA but our story is less believable.

If we want to turn our hand into a bluff and rep a FH we need to bet the turn as TwiceT suggested.

Another thing which is important to point is that we assume villain:

1) is good enough to realise his AA is only a bluff catcher on the river when we shove

2)will reach to the conclusion that we would never turn a hand like KK into a bluff

Both are strong assumptions to make against a nl50 player whom we only played 100 hands with.

Thanks for the input guys, iits a reminder that we always have three options and not two!

thanks to everyone who commented on this hand, and give a very detailed explanation!
to reveal the big mistery Villain had JJ.