Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

The tables at FTP are weird. I'm playin a $35 6mx. One of my opponents has this graph, (making a mere $200/game):

While another opponents does things like this:

Full Tilt, $32.34 Buy-in (40/80 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: 1,190 (14.9 bb)
CO: 1,215 (15.2 bb)
BTN: 1,295 (16.2 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,070 (13.4 bb)
BB: 4,230 (52.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 K
3 folds, Hero raises to 200, BB calls 120

Flop: (400) 8 Q 5 (2 players)
Hero bets 200, BB calls 200

Turn: (800) T (2 players)
Hero bets 670 and is all-in, BB calls 670

River: (2,140) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

I know which guy I want to see in the next game I play... ♦

Poker Stars, $55.68 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 5,635 (37.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 3,365 (22.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 K
SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (300) 5 K K (2 players)
Hero bets 165, SB calls 165

Turn: (630) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets 347, SB calls 347

River: (1,324) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets 2,703 and is all-in, SB calls 2,703

Results: 6,730 pot
Final Board: 5 K K 4 6
SB showed 7 8 and lost (-3,365 net)
Hero showed 4 K and won 6,730 (3,365 net)

♠_biggrin:: "I has the near nuts. But he won't believe me. Here goes..."
:f_confused:: "I has nothing. But board is paired, so I call and rep trips on turn when the donk checks, as he did every time before"
♠_grin:: "Nice turn, could go for the ch/R now, but what if he has a 4, 5 or 7? And I don't want to give the game away, after all. Let's bet; maybe he'll double float with air."
:f_love:: "Ooohhh how I love a turned gutshot to a tainted straight on a paired board. Now I don't need to bluff raise, but can just call for my 4 dirty outs and bet riv big if he gives up and I don't hit."
♠_cool: "Oh god, let him have a King or a something he can call with"
"LOL, he's shoving into my rivered straight!!! What a donk! Gotcha!!"

Gotta lettem get there.
:heart:

Poker Stars, $55.16 Buy-in (25/50 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 1,858 (37.2 bb)
Hero (SB): 5,539 (110.8 bb)
BB: 1,603 (32.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
BTN raises to 150, Hero raises to 405, BB folds, BTN calls 255

Flop: (860) 4 8 2 (2 players)
Hero bets 316, BTN calls 316

Turn: (1,492) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (1,492) Q (2 players)
Hero bets 4,818 and is all-in, BTN calls 1,137 and is all-in

Results: 3,766 pot
Final Board: 4 8 2 Q Q
BTN showed A 2 and lost (-1,858 net)
Hero showed Q Q and won 3,766 (1,908 net)

He missed 'Negotiating the Bubble' 101, it seems.

I hate it when they skipped the "Negotiating the bubble" class, it tilts the hell out of me and makes me want to call them names

Originally posted by Demonic226
I hate it when they skipped the "Negotiating the bubble" class, it tilts the hell out of me and makes me want to call them names

What sort of names?

"Gent"
"Kind sir"
"My dear confused chap"

Am I close?

Originally posted by Tim64

Originally posted by Demonic226
I hate it when they skipped the "Negotiating the bubble" class, it tilts the hell out of me and makes me want to call them names

What sort of names?

"Gent"
"Kind sir"
"My dear confused chap"

Am I close?

You are giving me new ideas.. Gents

Originally posted by Tim64

Originally posted by Demonic226
I hate it when they skipped the "Negotiating the bubble" class, it tilts the hell out of me and makes me want to call them names

What sort of names?

"Gent"
"Kind sir"
"My dear confused chap"

Am I close?

lol yeah let's keep it at that ♦

Those of you with more time on your hands than others may have been following the incapacatatory exploits of your faithful scribe (that's not a word, but wtf). Today was my long-awaited meeting with the consultant. This is what he said:

'I've never seen someone so young with such loss of mobility in their shoulder'. That's good, then.

Anyway, he needs to know whether my rotator cuff is actually damaged or not so now I have to wait another month to have one of these:

After that there is another month wait to see the consultant again. So basically nothing doing until December earliest. Since the day-to-day pain has tailed off to a managable minimum, I guess another couple of months waiting won't make much difference. If the rotator cuff is undamaged then he confirmed the shoulder is likely to require keyhole surgery to free up. He didn't say what will happen if the rotator cuff is damaged - presumably they will have to just lop the whole arm off. ♦

Thanks for following

I'm pretty happy with how this month went given that I was on holiday for well over one third of it. The poker was profitable though not excitingly so. Unfortunately it was a case of getting hammered hard at the relatively small number of $100s I played while doing very nicely at the majority of games I played below that (11% EV ROI at ABI $41). And because I am all about putting a positive spin on things where possible, you can have a graph with BI this time, instead of $.

More good news was that the end of summer saw slightly better games overall and so I managed to shift ABI up again to over $50.

To bolster the poker I was fortunate enough to have four profitable stakes ending in September. The draft contract has taken on a few extra layers of sophistication and I've managed to get it to say most of the things it needs to with a fair level of protection for the backer but still with reasonable freedom for the player. It's quite time consuming administering the stakes and following up new leads/applications but it's very rewarding to have a couple of students now tackling the $15s+ after having comfortably beaten the micros.

Numbers:

SnGs#: 404
ABI: $51.93
ROI: 5%
Winnings: $948.97
Rbk: FTP + Edge weekly + Game integrity $87.16; Stars dep. bonus $120+ VPP @ $292.71 +Stellar $100; PPs $42.75 Total: $628.91
SnG Profit: $1591.59
Hours: 31.78
SnG hourly: $50.08

Other earnings (coaching/staking): $1549.00
Hours: 34.90
Coaching/staking hourly: $44.38

Expenses: Sharkscope yrly subs @ $144.00

Final Profit: c$3435.45
Combined hourly: $51.52

Random asides:

-I couldn't reach agreement with PS.com on video production, so I'm going to shelve that avenue for the time being.
-Me and a few Stars sng grinders are heading to London in late November for the VIP gig. I've now got my ticket, so here's hoping it'll be fun.
-Next month I want to put in a concerted effort to work hard and rack up 700 games.
-Had an exhasting time arguing with Party over buyins lost due to their unstable new software which tited the living crap out of me.

Well, guess that's all for now. Thanks for reading ♠_love:

Poker Stars, $93.25 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 3,235 (32.4 bb)
Hero (SB): 3,240 (32.4 bb)
BB: 2,525 (25.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
BTN folds, Hero raises to 3,240 and is all-in,

Anyone care to wager the BB's calling range on the bubble here, given he is facing a shove for his tournament life? I'll check in a mo, but I reckon anything less than A9s/AT/88+/KQs would be loosing a ridiculous amount.

Ok, checking...

SB (Shove range): 37.6%, 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A2o K2s+ K9o+ Q3s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 65s 54s;
BB (Call range): 8%, 88+ ATs+ ATo+

BB calls 2,425 and is all-in

Flop: (5,050) 3 3 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (5,050) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (5,050) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

So my "not liking to get exploited; I call and f.u. range" is already too loose. And ... uhmm... K5o is just a tad outside even that range, sir. Well, at least his ret**ded spite call taught me a lesson:

Poker Stars, $93.25 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 3,860 (25.7 bb)
Hero (SB): 2,885 (19.2 bb)
BB: 2,255 (15 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 5
BTN folds, Hero raises to 2,885 and is all-in, BB calls 2,105 and is all-in

Flop: (4,510) Q 2 A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (4,510) J (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (4,510) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Yep, mustn't fold a weak-ass suited Kx on the bubble for 15 bigs. That would be EXPLOITABLE.

lol

looooool hahaha i cant understand how these people are playing so high

Golden SnGs has every reg and his dog playing at the moment On the upside, I have an edge against the dogs at least: ♦

Happy hunting, sng'ers!

Golden SnGs started already? I thought they started tomorrow!

Originally posted by Wriggers
Golden SnGs started already? I thought they started tomorrow!

As Arnie would say:

♦

Originally posted by Tim64
Poker Stars, $93.25 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 3,235 (32.4 bb)
Hero (SB): 3,240 (32.4 bb)
BB: 2,525 (25.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
BTN folds, Hero raises to 3,240 and is all-in,

Anyone care to wager the BB's calling range on the bubble here, given he is facing a shove for his tournament life? I'll check in a mo, but I reckon anything less than A9s/AT/88+/KQs would be loosing a ridiculous amount.

Ok, checking...

SB (Shove range): 37.6%, 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A2o K2s+ K9o+ Q3s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ 97s+ 86s+ 65s 54s;
BB (Call range): 8%, 88+ ATs+ ATo+

BB calls 2,425 and is all-in

Flop: (5,050) 3 3 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (5,050) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (5,050) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

5,050 pot
Final Board: 3 3 9 5 9
Hero showed K J and lost (-2,525 net)
BB showed K 5 and won 5,050 (2,525 net)

So my "not liking to get exploited; I call and f.u. range" is already too loose. And ... uhmm... K5o is just a tad outside even that range, sir. Well, at least his ret**ded spite call taught me a lesson:

So, how much is he losing with this call? 2bbs? How much is that in $$? How do you calculate all this? A single link to a site where I can find the answer is more than enough (bow). Obv, as a coach, you could write an article about this as well ♦

Hey Shev, nice question:

Originally posted by Shevtshenko

So, how much is he losing with this call? 2bbs? How much is that in $$? How do you calculate all this? A single link to a site where I can find the answer is more than enough (bow). Obv, as a coach, you could write an article about this as well ♦

First, ignore the numbers calculated in the prev post, using SnG wizz 2 which is in testing and buggy as hell.

Here is the Nash equilibrium range for this spot:

This tells us that we can shove the top 51.4% of all hands. Then we can us SnG Wizz to tell us what calling with K5o against this range costs:

It gives the Diff% as -6.84. This is the same as saying the call costs -6.84% of the total prize pool. So we take the prize pool at $100 6mx as $559.50 (BI less rake) and multiply by -6.84% to get:

-$38.27

If we were to calculate how much calling K5o costs vs my actual hand, (instead of vs a range), that number would be much bigger (nearly twice as big a loss!). I daresay there are easier ways to get that number (snger's please shout!) but this is how I do it

There is much easier way...I just say "it s minus million"... ♦

Originally posted by MilanBurdych

There is much easier way...I just say "it s minus million"... ♦

You mean, "minus waaaaan mirrion dolla", shurley?
♦

So where do these:

EqP%: 21.54
QqF%: 28.37

come from? I get where the diff% comes from

Another Q: How much wider than 51,4% should you be shoving in order for the K5o to be a call? Is that calculable? Note: if it's a lot, that should tell you something about how the BB views your jamming range :).

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
So where do these:

EqP%: 21.54
QqF%: 28.37

come from? I get where the diff% comes from

So the first number represents the BB's estimtated share of the prize pool when he calls (P stands for "push"). When he folds (F) he has 28.37% of the prizepool.

If you plug the stacks into Holdemresources, you can find the values of each of the starting stacks, stated in terms of % of the prizepool:

http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web-calculators/nashicm/results.html?action=calculate&bb=100&sb=50&ante=0&structure=0.65%2C+0.35&s1=3235&s2=3240&s3=2525&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=&s10=

You can see that BB's share is 29.27% (which is the share of the prizepool before anyone acts).

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Another Q: How much wider than 51,4% should you be shoving in order for the K5o to be a call? Is that calculable? Note: if it's a lot, that should tell you something about how the BB views your jamming range :).

Here's what makes his call so horrid: there's no range I can shove here that would make K5o a call:

But, for comparison, let's say villain had KTo. Then his call would be breakeven if I was shoving 78% or more of hands in this spot. (Wizz and other similar programs have graphs/charts which show how calling certain hands becomes better or worse against different pushing ranges)