AQo 5 mono

A call preflop is probably better than a large 3bet. You have a fish in the SB so calling should be good, while a 3bet turns your hand into a low equity bluff (you'll either get 4bet, where you have to fold, or you get called by AK/AQs/TT-QQ where you have bad equity)

Flop is good.
Turn is hard to comment on without knowing your preflop and flop strategy. If, for instance, you 3bet preflop with highcards and suited cards only, and cbet flop with all high spades, your range on the turn might be AQ/KQ no flush only, and then you should call AQ. If, otoh, you 3bet pre some pocket pairs and check back flop with some 8s8c as well as some AsX, you can probably fold AQ and call only flushes.

I think as default turn call is good. He will bluff some AK and 88-JJ without spade, while his value range is not too wide.

River is interesting. Let's assume he bets Ks/air only. Against Ks you have 0 fold, -60bb raise and -30bb call. Against air you have 0 fold, +70bb raise and +20bb call. Say x is the frequency of Ks, then 1-x is the frequency of air. We have

EV(fold) = 0
EV(raise) = -60x + 70(1-x) = 70 - 130x
EV(call) = -30x + 20(1-x) = 20 - 50x

you can see, raising is better than calling until x reaches 62.5%, and raising is better than folding until x reaches 54%. This means raising is always better than calling. If he has less than 54% Ks you should raise. Between 54% and 40% raise>fold>call, at 40% and less raise>call>fold.

If we relax the assumption, so that he can have some Js/Ts which bet/call or bet/fold, it won't change to much. It starts changing drastically once he bet/calls air for the split. But people don't do that, so the results are pretty good.

So does he have Ks 60% or less often, making a shove good? Ks is only possible in AxKs, which is 2 combos. Some KK or KQo are super unlikely. Potential bluffs are 88-JJ no spade, up to 24 combos. So he only has to bluff rarely with those hands to bluff too often.

Really like your river play

Wait what?

1. EV(call) = -30x + 20(1-x) = 20 - 50x

How come?
1-x = Hero's equity right?
EV(call) = (38.5+29.5+29.5)*(1-x) - 30 = 100ish * (1-x) - 30 = 70 -100x
or -30x +(1-x)*100

In that case call always > raise?

2. Vilain's river strategy is:
value bet Ks
bluff <AQ

How can raise > call?

Ha because we split. I am stupid.

Originally posted by lnternet
So does he have Ks 60% or less often, making a shove good?

Thanks for the good, detailed explanation.
When you say shove, do you suggest I should shove on river? Because, I just min raised him (we had around 50bb left). I would also min raise him with nuts, because I can only expect him to make mistake by calling for split or maybe bluff shoving, and if I shove I think he can never call.