Flop turn river line

I dont expect him to vbet worse here, but he might call worse. So I think betting is fine. Id bet rather small so that he calls his twopairs. I dont expect him to bluffraise much here.

Hi,

terrible open with such a loose guy in the BTN.

River i would actually c/c to a small betcause both FD's missed, and he would raise the nutstraight ott. If he bets big i would fold. I don't see many worse hands calling a bet here, definetly not enough to make our bet + EV.

Regards,

Skod

with this river af (11) i´m afraid that a very small blocker bet invite him to bluffraise me here.

I dont count on the river AF with this few hands. How many river spots are we talking about? 10? Its just too few to use this stat.

Based on my experience (which is not too much though) not too many fishes bluff the river with their busted FD especially not if they have also hit some pair to go with it.

EDIT: hmm i might be wrong with the sample. vpip*wts*hands should be the number of river spots, which results in .79*.29*231 = ~53, which is alot more than I thought (his vpip is just damn high).

yeah maybe i overestimate the stats here

200 hands, stats are irrelevant for such details. It can give you the general idea of your opponents, but not much more. You guys seem to overvalue stats with your decision making too often from my experience here. You disregard the other factors in a hand due to a small stat on a small sample.

I on the other hand could look at a few more stats when playing, i have to admit that :P, but it would never cross my mind to think about villains river af here; i would rather try to put him on a range each street, see how often that range will bluff, how often has me beat etc... The river af only comes to play if i would have 2 choices where i was 50/50.

Regards,

Skod

I think it's a great T to check/raise with our toppair + GS + 2 FD + str8 blockers.
It's hard to make someone fold to a barrel on such a drawy board.
And if he checks back that's not a big deal with our non-nutty draws I think.

Lot of players make bad river bluffs at micros. I would check-call here a lot of times, as he would raise his straights ott. He has missed flush draws in his range, and his river aggression and wtsd stats indicate that he propably can bluff rivers. Betting is bad imo, as small bet might induce a bluff. And if we are willing to invest more money otr, we get better value for it with check-call.

Crai ott is an option, but i'm not sold on it, cause i'm not sure if villain ever bet folds, and our draws are very nonnuty. It's not bad for sure.

Every time i c/c the river here i'm beat ♦.

Regards,

Skod

i think that villian will often raise his str8 ott. C/C river is nice here. In game i just bet and he folded.