Well, september definitely was a sucky month, ran way below equity and had my fair number of beats as well. Not the best way to start off if you're going pro. Probably had my biggest downswing moneywise, about 7k$. Moved down to NL200 to pull up the confidence, ran bad there as well but eventually caught up and now I'm good again.
October is making up for the rough times I had, up about 5k$ after 16k hands (yet still running about 1k under equity). Bankroll currently at 17k$. Changing my currency from € to $ when it was still at 1$ = 0.64€ probably saved me about 1500€ as well
Wauw...forget what I said about september, october is worse. I just had the worst, worst session in my entire career...not moneywise but equity- and buyinwise:

This is so sick...I don't know how I'm able to still be up for the month...3k$ difference in equity from october alone...
An overview of my biggest pots (sorry that they're not fully converted, Holdem manager isn't really compatible with grabem and I'm too tilted to convert them all):
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer Game#21332321862
Timor83 ($501)
k345 ($550)
ZipD ($466)
Alotofaction ($400)
Panda46 ($427)
MK1952 ($438)
Timor83 posts (SB) $2
k345 posts (BB) $4
Dealt to Timor83 As 7c
fold, fold, fold, fold,
Timor83 raises to $14
call,
FLOP ($28) 3s Kd Ad
Timor83 bets $20
k345 raises to $68
Timor83 calls $48
TURN ($164) 3s Kd Ad 4c
check,
k345 bets $116
Timor83 raises to $419
k345 calls $303
RIVER ($1,002) 3s Kd Ad 4c 6s
k345 shows 3h Ah
(Flop 77.3%, Turn 83.0%)
Timor83 shows As 7c
(Flop 22.7%, Turn 17.0%)
k345 wins $999
Explanation: Villain (20/17/3 after 12k hands) is a light 3-better (10%). Also, he has an agression freq of 52%, quite high.
So he most likely doesn't have a strong ace here, those would've 3-betted pre. Also, he seems reasonable so I don't expect him to raise with AT-A8. Therefore, his range here is heavily skewed towards either A3s, a set of 3's or a (semi)bluff. Against that range I have decent but not great equity, so I decide to see a turncard and stack off if it bricks. It does and of course he has A3. I don't know if my analysis is correct here but with these reliable reads I think I can make this play with a crappy ace. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Lost with :
- QQ against AK preflop AI
- AK vs AQ preflop AI
- AK vs AA, in regular 3-betted pot, flop gives an A
- A bunch of 30-60BB pots where I either second barrel with 2 overs and nutflushdraw and I don't get there, protecting my top pair but Villains get their flush on the river anyway,...you know the drill.
Oh yeah, this one was fun too:
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer Game#21335362667
Timor83 ($402)
maureen73 ($1,983)
Tr3CooL ($858)
LK_Revolt ($400)
no_dow_for_u ($593)
sekunde1 ($429)
Timor83 posts (SB) $2
maureen73 posts (BB) $4
Dealt to Timor83 Th Ah
fold, fold, fold,
sekunde1 raises to $12
Timor83 raises to $44
fold, call,
FLOP ($92) 5d 4h 4d
Timor83 bets $62
sekunde1 calls $62
TURN ($216) 5d 4h 4d 7h
Timor83 bets $296
sekunde1 calls $296
RIVER ($808) 5d 4h 4d 7h 4c
sekunde1 shows 4s 3s
(Flop 96.4%, Turn 84.1%)
Timor83 shows Th Ah
(Flop 3.6%, Turn 15.9%)
sekunde1 wins $805
Obviously the perfect turncard for me to stack off with 2 overs and the nutflushdraw...but seriously, I should've known that there are a huge deal of 4's in his range to flat a 3-bet pre of course, I wouldn't expect less if you're a 42/22. Nh fish.
Sorry, just needed to rant
surely applying zeebo for the last hand is best? he's not folding any boat there ever imo. and not calling flop with any non-paired hand? i dunno... just feel especially vs fish, zeebo applies.
What's zeebo? ![]()
Edit: I know now what it is and it doesnt really apply here. There aren't a lot of boats possible on the turn (only 44,45,55 and 77) and his range is far, far more wider than that.
Originally posted by Timor83
What's zeebo?
Edit: I know now what it is and it doesnt really apply here. There aren't a lot of boats possible on the turn (only 44,45,55 and 77) and his range is far, far more wider than that.
i don't know. i'm just VERY wary of making a bluff on a tripped board at my limit. people fold so rarely.
which also means i "valuebet" over potsize on these boards.
Undescribable.
Here's a graph of my NL200 session today:

Had a similar session on NL400 last week as well (see above).
Graph of the last 3 months:

I'm one step away from crying atm. Going pro has failed miserably up until now, and it's mostly (not all) due to variance. Problem is that I have to cash out to pay the bills, so my roll has diminished to 11.5k right now. Sick
looks like october wasn't a poker month)
have the same shit here) and also had to withdraw most of my roll to move to barca and support my living... have even smaller roll now. but don't make conclusions after one month)
i am reading a lot of poker blogs and negative months are something common for a lot of good players.
it feels kinda sad to spend a month for worse then nothing, but it isn't entirely so)
you can still make a good living at NL200 for now, right?
also, some all-in EV vs all-in winnings graphs might make things clearer. (although that still only shows one aspect of variance)
Making a living on NL200 is possible but requires more hands/day obviously.
If you hit runner runner flushes in 3-bet pots where Villain slowplayed a set of Q's which he made a boat with on the river together with my flush, if Villains hit x-outers constantly (x: insert number <6 here), and I'm not getting paid off on my big hands enough, then I don't need a lot of graphs to know that variance is just beating me up.
The irony of it all is that I have to grind through this (solely to pay the bills), while playing poker is probably the last thing I want to do right now.
But meh, I already went through this before. I know that things will turn out fine in the long run, but right now this is just an incredibly stressy way to start off professionally. It would be different if I was grinding out NL600-NL1k because then a downswing would be not so harmful in terms of fulfilling my financial obligations, but at NL200, it's a different story. The upcoming month needs to be a decent one, or I'm getting myself into trouble. And that's not exactly what I had in mind when I was grinding out NL400-600 for 70$/hr 4 months ago.
Go play 12 Tables of NL50 :o) I think yu can't never loose on this limit and still make something to pay the bills
Hey Timor the thing that matters is that you're Good, just keep going..
and to the question do you have experience with HM and PT3 (with both?)
I would like to know your opinion which one is better
I have HM, I think it's pretty good. Can't say anything about PT3.
And well, I may be good, the results just ain't coming. Sunday was ok with a decent cash in the Sunday Million (1k$ + 400$ in cash winnings), today I had another wonderful session where I ran at 21% WTSD and 37% W$SD:

Current standings: 5k$ down in equity for October. Just give me another 2 months like the last ones and I'll be back at NL100 in no time.
X(
lol I did have today lice session also!
oponent limped to me two Aces, and I made 9TJQK str8 on river while he did have the ace (I expected him to raise with any ace)
than oponent turned 2-outer while all-in on flop.
than we split 400BB pot while oponent hit 2-outer on river while all-in
I get all-in pf. with KK against AA
150BB all-in on flop with 2 pair, oponent did have only 2 overcards and flush draw (and he won ofc.)
can be smth. about 5-7BI... I think I played good like 8,5/10
damn that sucks. i'd say put in more volume, but i'm not sure what your MT ratio is. if it's like mine then all i can say is bad luck :|.