Outspan's road to 100NL

Good luck outspan!

Originally posted by HollyMichelle
Good luck outspan!

1/1/2014:

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $35.85 (358.5 bb)
SB: $17.39 (173.9 bb)
BB: $18.31 (183.1 bb)
UTG: $15.39 (153.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $11.05 (110.5 bb)
CO: $10.15 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) J T 9 (2 players)
BB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, BB calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.25) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

River: ($4.75) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.10, BB folds

Results:

3/1/2014:

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $10.10 (101 bb)
BB: $38.35 (383.5 bb)
UTG: $18.62 (186.2 bb)
MP: $14.23 (142.3 bb)
CO: $7.34 (73.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) 7 8 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, UTG raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $1.85, UTG folds

Results:

4/1/2014:

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $7.85 (78.5 bb)
SB: $7.65 (76.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $11.17 (111.7 bb)
UTG: $21.16 (211.6 bb)
MP: $6.93 (69.3 bb)
CO: $10.99 (109.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q J
UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.60, MP calls $0.50, SB folds

Flop: ($1.30) A T 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.95, MP calls $0.95

Turn: ($3.20) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.51, MP calls $1.51

River: ($6.22) K (2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP calls $3.87 and is all-in

Results:

Stick around, will ya ♦

In this post I'm analyzing in detail the cbet success % on various board textures, which is my theory objective for the week. Warning: long post. Comments and observations welcome!

OVERVIEW:

Cbetting seems to be about equally as successful regardless of preflop action, which is a little surprising. It's quite successful when isolating limpers too.

ANALYSIS BY HIGH CARD:

A-high flop:

As expected the cbet is more successful here than usual, even when isolating limpers (whose limp/call range is sometimes Ax heavy).

K-high flop:

Fold equity is about the same. Villains seem to fold quite often after calling my 3bet.

Q-high flop:

FE decreases sensibly, particularly in 3bet pots

J-high flop:

FE keeps dropping in 3bet pots

T-, 9-, 8-, 7-, 6-high flops:

Percentages don't seem to drop below 40%.

ANALYSIS BY BOARD TEXTURE

Rainbow flop:

Two-tone flop:

Monotone flop:

As expected I have a bunch of FE on rainbow flops, less on two-tone, which have possible FDs, and a bunch on monotone flops, which I did not expect (I have low sample size though). One explanation for monotone boards might be that those boards look scary and it's hard for villain to call without a card of the right color.

Flop with no connected cards:

Flop with connected cards:

As expected, more FE on unconnected flops

Paired flop:

Unpaired flop:

As expected, more FE on paired flops.

WORST CASE SCENARIOS

Flop 2-tone, connected and unpaired:

Flop 2-tone, connected, unpaired and Q-high:

Flop 2-tone, T-high:

CONCLUSIONS

I confirmed that A- and K-high and paired flops are the ones with the post FE. Monotone flops might be a good spot too, but I need more samples to confirm. On a lesser measure, unconnected flops also have decent FE.

I assumed that cbet success % would drop below 30 in the worst case scenarios, but it's weird to note how they never seem to drop below 40 pretty much no matter what. Which means that cbetting 100% vs unknown is probably +EV on any board (I did not expect this).

My flop cbet is 67, I might be able to increase it slightly using these observations since villains seem to fold so often.

Comments/observations?

Hey outspan,

That's quite an analysis. My head is still spinning. ♦

A bit too much for my micro stakes brain to handle lol, but I'm sure there will be plenty who will comment on it and find it useful.

Nice work

Laz

Originally posted by Lazza61
Hey outspan,

That's quite an analysis. My head is still spinning. ♦

A bit too much for my micro stakes brain to handle lol, but I'm sure there will be plenty who will comment on it and find it useful.

Nice work

Laz

Thanks lol ♦

I've posted it in the NL forum too. I guess I can't expect lots of comments here, I don't really know anybody in the English community (my main blog is on pokerstrategy.IT).

In this post I'm gathering 50 sample hands (30 facing unopened or limpers from the 5 positions, 20 in 3bet pots) on cbet, so that I have a good reference for the most common situations whenever I have a doubt.

In the long term I want to create a list of topics (cbet, 3bet pots, cold calling etc), each with a detailed DB analysis and sample hands. Then I'll make a giant post that links to all of those and will act as my strategy guide.

CBET IN UNOPENED POTS

From BU

BU cbet (1/6) - QJo
BU cbet (2/6) - 88
BU cbet (3/6) Q5s
BU cbet (4/6) - 66
BU cbet (5/6) - TT
BU cbet (6/6) - K7s

From CO

CO cbet (1/6) - AQo
CO cbet (2/6) - AJo
CO cbet (3/6) - 78s
CO cbet (4/6) - A4s
CO cbet (5/6) - T9o
CO cbet (6/6) - 88

From MP

MP cbet (1/6) - 55
MP cbet (2/6) - 77
MP cbet (3/6) - 66
MP cbet (4/6) - KK
MP cbet (5/6) - ATo
MP cbet (6/6) - KQo

From UTG

UTG cbet (1/6) - ATs
UTG cbet (2/6) - AJo
UTG cbet (3/6) - AKo
UTG cbet (4/6) - AJs
UTG cbet (5/6) - KK
UTG cbet (6/6) - 88

From SB

SB cbet (1/6) - JJ
SB cbet (2/6) - K9o
SB cbet (3/6) - A3o
SB cbet (4/6) - ATo
SB cbet (5/6) - A9o
SB cbet (6/6) - KTs

CBET IN 3BET POTS

IP

Cbet in 3B pot IP (1/10) - QQ
Cbet in 3B pot IP (2/10) - ATo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (3/10) - KQo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (4/10) - TT
Cbet in 3B pot IP (5/10) - AQo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (6/10) - AQo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (7/10) - AKo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (8/10) - ATo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (9/10) - AKo
Cbet in 3B pot IP (10/10) - AQs

OOP

Cbet in 3B pot OOP (1/10) - AKo
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (2/10) - TT
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (3/10) - ATo
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (4/10) - QQ
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (5/10) - AKo
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (6/10) - AKo
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (7/10) - AKs
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (8/10) - JJ
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (9/10) - ATo
Cbet in 3B pot OOP (10/10) - KK

Ever since I went from 4x zoom to 2x at NL10 yesterday, I've been really, really satisfied with my play. I'm running hot too which doesn't hurt

It was an ego thing for me, I wanted to tell myself that I could make double the money. But the truth is that I'm still learning so many concepts that if I play 4x there is absolutely no way that I can understand them fully. Or take proper notes. I ran some huge bluffs and today was just one of those days where every single play I made worked. There's no way I would have tried those plays if I had 4x'd.

Plus since I only will play 2x, I can also mix in some MTTs which I love!

I'm also switching my HUD stats from AF to agg%, which is a lot more intuitive to understand.

[x] following

Looks like it'll be a really nice blog. Gl outspan

Very interesting goals and stats review/analysis... added blog to favourites.

TYTY holmeboy and Ramble. Lots of great stuff to come ♠_love: ♠_love: ♠_love:

Leatherass's materials

One of the most important things that I learned from Think and Grow Rich is that I have to model the way successful people think.

I have diamond status right now because of a combination of double SPs last month and winning a status upgrade as part of an initiative in the Italian pokerstrategy community.

Obviously I have no use for diamond strategy content, but I was extremely pleased to see that Dusty Schimdt has a diamond video series on his own mental attitute, called "Achieving the top end of your range." I watched it and really loved it, took a lot of lessons from it in terms of his psychology.

Other really useful concepts of his are that of treating poker like a business. Can't go into too much detail here. But I'm buying his book with the same name. I found myself nodding all the time during the entire two videos so that's a good sign I should get the book lol.

Charity

One of the things that he mentioned in passing was something to the effect of: "after all, we're poker players, not doctors or teachers, and we'll have to make peace with the fact that our profession will never be as accepted as that of a doctor or a teacher."

This made me realize that one reason that I've been playing poker on and off over the past few years was that it is extremely important to me to have a positive impact on the world, and poker, while it improved my psychology and made me stronger, by itself doesn't really do anything in that sense. So I kept going back to my normal job.

For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity. This may sound counterintuitive, but when you think about it, it's a win/win if it allows me to increase my volume, persistence and hunger for improving by at least 1-100/(100-7.5) = 8.1%. Personally, I think it will easily double all of those, so it's a no-brainer, and it makes poker exactly in line with my long-term goals.

Changing mentality

I don't know what it was, possibly it was the thought of finally being able to do something that truly reflects my values in this way, but soon after making that decision I have been thinking about poker basically non-stop. I have been posting hands, strategizing on how to organize my day and week to maximize learning and playing, and feeling extremely happy when I finally got to play. The words that came to my mind were, "I feel privileged to be playing poker." I kinda did a double take there ♦ but I really am extraordinarily motivated right now.

Originally posted by outspan
Charity
For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity.

That's very cool man - for many years now I have committed to donate 1% of my gross salary to charity every year. It's not much, but that was kind of the point for me - almost anyone can absorb a 1% loss quite easily (heck, in poker I lose about 3% and I'm still playin... ♦), but I feel more than 1% happier that I am contributing to help those who are struggling in some way.

Something I read today and that I want to remember: as Jared Tendler says,

Tilt doesn't cause mistakes, it reveals them

I'm often tilting after making mistakes and realizing that I did. So actually, tilt is extremely useful. It tells me what I need to work on.

On a similar note, my objective cannot be to become an emotionless robot while playing. Nor to be excessively emotional. I have to aim for the "middle way" that corresponds to peak performance.

Also, today I happened to watch this video:

It's a great talk, and also on a very practical note, substitute "suffering" with "tilt" and I challenge you to tilt while listening to this

I almost tilted today when I realized I insta folded the river when I should have insta called (I misread the board). The lesson I learned from this mistake:

whenever I'm on the river, I must always take 3 deep breaths before taking a decision.

Originally posted by Ramble

Originally posted by outspan
Charity
For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity.

That's very cool man - for many years now I have committed to donate 1% of my gross salary to charity every year. It's not much, but that was kind of the point for me - almost anyone can absorb a 1% loss quite easily (heck, in poker I lose about 3% and I'm still playin... ♦), but I feel more than 1% happier that I am contributing to help those who are struggling in some way.

That's great! Yeah it has great life ROI.

Plus, think of all the chicks we can get ♠_biggrin: ♠_biggrin:

Ma una spammata pure qua te la devo fare! ahaha ♦

Grande Outspan!

Originally posted by H4nG0v3R91
Ma una spammata pure qua te la devo fare! ahaha ♦

Grande Outspan!

I saw this and thought of you. Be careful what you wish for, but good luck anyway.

Originally posted by jbpatzer
I saw this and thought of you. Be careful what you wish for, but good luck anyway.

Short but important addendum to my previous post:

ANALYSIS BY POSITION

IP:

OOP:

ANALYSIS BY SIZING

<= 1/2 pot:

>= 1/2 pot:

I'd like to analize the success % when a blind who folds 75% to steal decides to defend (I assume the cbet won't get through most of the time because they have a strong range). However I'm not sure how to do that analysis on HEM.