Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
($515)
Hero ($485)
Dealt to Hero 8♥ K♥ , Hero raises to $80, raises to $515 (AI), Hero ?
villain:
hands:24
vp_sb:83 r1_sb:33 lm_sb:50
should i call?
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2 replies
Hello,
This is a nash call, but based on the stats you've given, calling according to nash would be a mistake. I'm folding here, although I don't think calling would be a massive mistake.
I don't see his OOP stats, but you can play this hand many ways, which one to choose is obv villain dependant. But if I minraise this, I am never ever doing with intention to fold (in this particular spot, this deep).
We can also use some approximations. Population 3B 31% ~12BB deep, so I assigned villain this range: TT-22,A2+,K7s+,K8o+,Q9+,JT
These are just value hands (I dont know how many low suited connectors / random BS's he got in his 3bs range). If he jams lot of low suited combos, it is obv better for us. Yes, he can 3bs even premium hands, but it is not that likely.
ICMizer says that it is slightly +EV call with K8s. So it is close spot, but I dont mind taking 9.18 chips in long run 
Btw, I dont call according to nash ~12bb deep, it is just too wide.
It is very interesting that range with which they call open shove is about the same as their 3bs range, so minraise should be better than open jam, because we still have position, quite fine hand and we dominate certain part of his calling range (calling range is very narrow this deep tho)
