Fold...i think that he have flush....no call with only low par.
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Short Answer: Fold
I have NO IDEA how to play SNG. So yeah, will be a guessing game for me.
Coming from cash, I have no idea why a reg would limp on the BU, so I don't know what xe could do it with.
We are the chip leader and will remain so even if we fold.
Raise: I just can't see why. I assume not to have almost any fold equity even just because of the quantity of BB that villain already invested. Plus what better hand would we target? And I don't think a worse hand will call anyway.
Call: Possible, since it's a limped pot and the pot itself is not so big, but really, why? I understand that the cards were perfect for villain to bluff, but that doesn't mean we should call with any pair any board that is dangerous and perfect to bluff on (hits both limping and raising range). That way we just lose stacks, after all there's a reason why such boards are "perfect to bluff", 'cos the bluff WILL be profitable to do. Now, you could argue then "why did you call 2 barrels in the first place then to then fold to average bet on river?" but since we don't have reads on barreling frequencies of this reg, I just don't know. And if xe's solid, it was a mistake to begin with to call 2 barrels.
The remaining option is to Fold.
Bubble of 6max sng so I presume top 2 gets paid. Button and SB have comparable stack sizes. Limp from the BTN is strange imo, he could easily try to steal from the button by making it 2.5x but he doesn't; at this moment in time with 17bb it is still possible to raise 2.5x -fold when raised.
His (passive) limp combined with his (aggressive) postflop betting behavior can point at 3 potential holdings, but none of them are not-for-value postflop as far as I can see.
1-He could have a monster like AA (or KK) and was afraid to raise as he didn't just want to pick up the blinds with such a strong hand.
2-He could have a pair of threes; 99 is one of these middle hands that you would generally definitely raise as there is a 79% chance of (any) overcard on the flop so 99 is unlikely and with the 7 in your hand and the 7 on the board, there is only one remaining combo for 77 possible so that is also unlikely.
3- The other option would be that he limped with a small suited connector here and just hoped to see a cheap flop from in position(which he then did).
On the flop he bets 60% of the flop potsize.
On the turn he bets 42% of the turn potsize.
On the river he bets 54% of the river potsize.
By the river, he has bet (including his limp): 150+225+346+825= 1546 of his total stack of 2495, which means he has now invested 62% of his stack and as a result, only 38% of his stack remains; apart from the fact that I do not think he will still fold should we raise, I do not think we have anything more than a bluffcatcher here and his bet(s) (especially on river) seem to be for value somehow. Very passive line preflop followed by a very aggressive line postflop is always a bit "funny" of course.
At first I think he may have hit a set, but in the end my feeling still goes towards him betting his EV throughout the hand even though he did not have a made hand but got there by the river. Even though the following example would give him a straightflush by the river, I still think it is plausible that he is holding 6s8s:
On the flop he would have 60% equity, on the turn still 39% and once again he has the betting momentum and position, two pretty powerful weapons I would say which are only compounded by the fact that our holding is not very strong at all. I think he got there by the river and I actually like his river betsizing as it is in line with the % of potbetsizes on the two previous streets (60%-42%-54%).
In the end, should you think that on average you clearly have the best hand here, you can raise but I don't think anybody would be that comfortable here with a pair of sevens on a 4 flush board of which we don't have a piece. Bluffraising will also not work as opponent is too potcommitted already, without even considering the fact that I think opponent has the best hand on the river. You could call when you feel you have showdownvalue here, which I don't think hero has. Then the only button left to click is fold.
I don't think I can compete since I'm a coach here, not sure. But I think hero makes a mistake early on in the hand. Although I'm no expert on sns or 30bb play, but I'm pretty sure equity wise range vs range, hero is making a mistake on the turn.
I would have also played the flop differently.
I fold. Everything got there and our hand is trash. There are few things we beat, but in general i don't like giving away chips in such a spots.
With the limited information given, I would say, that this is a fold. If you know, that he is a solid reg, than I am assuming, that he know, you are reg as well (HUD). Solid regs don't usually openlimp. Speculative hand? Naahhh. If he is a solid reg, only thing that would make sense here is that he is packing heat. Limping is an exploitable play, and he would suspect that you, as a reg, would come over the top preflop, and he would have easy all-in call. You checked. If the flop would have bean more dry, he would probably check as well, but the pot got some connectivity, so he is making you pay for your draws, and even building a pot, if you, maybe, have good top pair. Ace doesn't scare him, because you would have raised over him pre with an ace, so he keeps making you pay for the river, because you must have something, if you called the flop. But the river... At this point, I would say, that he just got married with the hand he had, and did not want to believe, you have made flush/straight/twopair. I would put him on a range QQ+ (in super rare cases JJ maybe), most likely AA, because if he has made a set, that would explain my theory about getting married to hand.
About the heros play. If you feeling creative, imo you should rather make check/raise on a flop (fold if he 4bets), than take the line hero took, because, maybe that would cost little more than this play, but you would have a clearer look after the flop.
My second guess would be that hero called, because he was drunk, and ended up winning, because villain was high.
I would FOLD here.. Even if he bluffs a lot I don't think the he barrels three times air.. the flush draws completed to.
Solution posted.
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