NL50 ZOOM JJ paired board vs fish

Hey Dooleslovs,

Preflop call is fine here.

Given that UTG is still in the pot leading this flop for value is totally reasonable. I think we are likely in bad shape vs CO's range when he raises vs a lead into a 4-way pot. Folding flop is fine, but the lead itself is ok also, we are just hoping UTG flats and no-one raises.

Yeah co might have slowplayd some QQ+ but UTG has 135BB and CO only 50, and I have about 45-50% agains co range, and about 70% against UTG so folding feels a bit weak..

Originally posted by dooleslovs
Yeah co might have slowplayd some QQ+ but UTG has 135BB and CO only 50, and I have about 45-50% agains co range, and about 70% against UTG so folding feels a bit weak..

How do we calculate that we have 40-50%?

Seeing as our lead 4-way looks strong I think it's very unlikely CO is raising worse overpairs or bluffing. (The presence of the fish should also mean that CO's raising range is value-oriented). So if his range ends up being primarily 7x and 22 then we don't have so much equity vs his range.

Board: 7♥2♥7♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    43.81%  43.81%   0.00% { JsJc }
MP3    56.19%  56.19%   0.00% { KK, TT, 2d2s, A7s, 87s, 76s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, KhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h }

Its not perfect range but should be something like that, and fish is very wide any pp any flush draw, overcards, A2, so IMO i crush him, so whe he invested some money i think he would call extra 6$ with almost 100% of his range. So calling should not be so teribale IMO

How does it look if we remove FD's from CO's range though?

I think we should not assume that he is ever bluff-raising vs a lead 4-way when there is a fish involved in the pot. It'd generally be a pretty bad line.