NL100 QTs deep 4bet pot

Which hands do you expect him to fold on the turn where he is calling the flop with in a 4b pot on this texture? His 3bet call 4b range is hitting this board so hard. I call pre, as played bet once, x/f turn imo.

Originally posted by Goedemiddag
Which hands do you expect him to fold on the turn where he is calling the flop with in a 4b pot on this texture?

KQ/KTs/AJ, maybe QJs

Why should he 3bet KQ, AJ or QJs? He is flatting those hands most of the time i guess..

Meh, Sick spot. I think giving up is better on this turn.

I'd shove turn only if I hit a heart on the turn as a bluff as I think he's going to call down a lot looking at the fold to cbet turn stat.

Also, I think we don't have a good enough sample to pay too much attention to his 4bet/fold to 4bet stats although its an ok amount.

I think he's calling down more often than not here.

Also in a 4bet pot you could go for a smaller bet on the flop.

Originally posted by Goedemiddag
Why should he 3bet KQ, AJ or QJs? He is flatting those hands most of the time i guess..

I've seen many times players 3betting all kind of (suited) broadway stuff in position deepstacked, and here we are CO vs MP, where he could prefer raising over flatting, in order to avoid a squeeze. Also once they get a 4bet, I think it's more likely they call with KQs/QJs than with 54s (but I could be wrong in this case ofc).

Also you wrote, that this board hits his 3bet/call4bet range hard. What does it hit then if he doesnt 3bet broadways? Only KK+/AK mostly.

Otherwise turn push could be too light, I might not have enough fold equity along with the equity I have with OESD. But I still think it's a tough call for him with a top pair like KQ/KTs.

And yeah, usually I cbet smaller in 4bet pots (~1/3 pot as "standard"), but here we are deep, and I wanted to set up stacks for a potsize turn push, making this a two street hand.
Shoving only on a heart turn sounds fine btw, this way my equity increases a lot, so I need less FE, and it's doubtful how much I got here.

Otherwise turn push could be too light, I might not have enough fold equity along with the equity I have with OESD. But I still think it's a tough call for him with a top pair like KQ/KTs.

Yeah, it is a tough call, but still it is a call for villian especially if he knows that you are 4betting as bluff wider and then bluffing postflop.

PF: Hmm he's deep which makes calling better, but 3->10 is huge so you get pretty shitty pot odds. I suppose 4betting is acceptable.

F: I would typically just go for a 18$ bet with most of my range but I think your bet sizing plan works fine here for a 2-barrel strategy. Balance is probably overrated here, especially when you have effective stack sizes of 150bb.

This exact situation of 150bb in a 4b pot (SPR = 2.5) isn't happening too often.