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4th nuts vs idiot OTR... value?

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MGF001
Joined: 25.05.2007

Villain has stats of 100/13 on 49 hands; 3bet 0; AF 1.1; WTS 29

$0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
PokerStars
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($48.35) 97bb
BTN ($66.72) 133bb
Hero (SB) ($65.03) 130bb
BB ($61.53) 123bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 4 players) Hero is SB A♦ 4♥ 3♦ 9♥
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: A♣ 3♣ 4♦ ($3, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

Turn: 3♠ ($7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, BB calls $5.50

River: 10:club: ($18.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $17.67, $17.67 to Hero ($55.78)?

I check the River, because Villain did potbets IP otr as bluff and value very often. I even expect him to "valuepot" a lot of flushes here. I even ch/r as I expect him to call all worse full houses here(I did the same ch/raise a few hands ago, where he had to fold a total bluff(for sure...)).

I expect him to valuebet/call this (complete) range:
44, A3, T3, ATT, 3TT, (TT&((*c*c), 52)), AA /rb
I have about 55% otr against this. I think, sometimes he will level himself and even call a flush.

Do you think my assumptions are too strong and a ch/c otr is better(as I expect him to bet a lot) or would you agree with me, that a 100%-player can be expected to do this calls?

Regards MGF


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6 replies
MrTrocks
Joined: 25.03.2006

i have no idea as played i would just call


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dylboi011
Joined: 20.04.2010

Yeah i think you can shove, seems thin but i think its really unlikely we are beaten and assume he will likely spew off and call with worse full house or flush.


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nice that you have a read like this, would play the river so as well. I would may just minraise so he calls with flush.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

yeah jamming should be okayish; we basically block anything that beats us.

Regards,

Skod


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Falber
Joined: 20.02.2009

Do you really think fishes are able to value bet random flushes on this board?

I am remembering a ton of impossible check back from them.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Originally posted by Falber
Do you really think fishes are able to value bet random flushes on this board?

I am remembering a ton of impossible check back from them.

The OP states in his post that he SAW villain do this as a bluff.

Regards,

Skod


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