Zoom 100, 3BP /w AAJ7ds

ugly spot.

If you are to stack off some AAxx this is defenitly a good candidate since you block a J, a straight out and you have 2 bdfds.

maybe CO 3betting range and % is of help, if he like to 3b doublepairs he is very unlike ly to have a set here, but also if he is a loose 3better he shouldnt have to many rundown type of hands.

I'd try to figure out what is the worst set up i could be up against and what is the best one. Then id try to figure out how often those happen und try to come up with a conclusion. I think good ProPokerTools/OddsOracle skills help alot in this situation.
(I dont have such skills though :P)

puh sick hand etbrood..

like suhepxm said ProPokerTools could help here. though spot

i´m also think utg often have a very good draw here like a perfect wrap or 2pair

if i give them a range that include sets, 2pair, wraps etc u have around 29% otf.

overall maybe this deep okay to fold

Hi,

in this scenario i do agree with my predecessors. I think at least one of them should have 2 pair here, and the other probably has a really decent draw. We only invested 15bb preflop, so i think folding is the only option here. I would stackoff if u had a gutter here though, but you definetly have to calculate even then if you have what it's necessary here.

Overall though, gii here is never a big + EV move, so playing it safe and folding is obviously a decent play.

Regards,

Skod

Originally posted by Skodljivec
We only invested 15bb preflop[...]

I've read this in several hand judgings of yours, but i think this should never be part of our consideration when we want to determine what is the best play.
Either a shove otf is +ev or -ev, but folding always has an ev of 0.
If folding has an ev of 0 why should we consider how much money we put in before the flop? It changes nothing.

You can argue that if we want to reduce variance we might consider this, but im certain this is not the optimal/max ev approach.

Yes, it's not optimal.

However, when we are making very close decisions, these are probably the factors we have to take in consideration. W/O doing a big analysis i'm assuming our shove here would be - EV. That assumption along with the fact we only invested 15bb's preflop makes me fold here and be happy about it.

If i had a simmilar scenario where i invested more preflop, i'd take a lot of time to analyize a spot, so i can avoid making a mistake where i invested more money in already.

So i think this only becomes a part of our consideration when the original play is around 0 EV and we are not sure if it's maybe slightly + or - EV.

Regards,

Skod

I believe in order to break even I need 111 / (48 + 111 + 111 + 111) = ~29% EQ in the main pot and another 50% EQ in the side pot. Is that correct?
I'm certain that I have at least 55% in the side pot, so I'm profiting there. So if I have a bit less than 29% in the main pot I can still break even.

I'm pretty sure I should shove here with a nut set blocker and two BDFD's. In most scenarios I think I have ~35% EQ in the main pot which would mean I'm profiting very well.
Even without a 2nd BDFD I might be able to profit here. It may be too close, I don't know.

Considering that sets are a very small part of peoples ranges in such a spot I think folding is a bit too nitty.