PLO100 middle set 3b pot

Look at what type of hands villain 3-bets, not just his 3-bet %
If it's more than 50% AA over a good sample, then we have to stop and think. Are you planning to fold your whole river range for much better than 2:1 odds? Don't over-adjust in these days of highly aggressive poker. Wait until you have a sample on villain until you make these crazy exploitive laydowns.
You will run into AA a good amount of time, but the times that villain is bluffing will make up for it. Just accept the variance.

hi ETBrooD, thank you for the answer. well, the math here is pretty simple, he basically can't have AA in more than 30% (assuming his 3b% is those 5.6%) of the cases and if he 3bets only good AA (say 1.5% range), then it is about 15%. so if he is going to bluff with all of his air, i have no problem with calling down (and actually he should also value bet worse hands like AT or 3). but the question is, how often he will actually bluff. for instance, i myself would almost never 3barrel bluff here, since opponents calling range on the flop consists mostly od A, which he is never going to fold. so, in my opinion, this is more a question of tendencies of the regs at this limit.

Hi,

the BB vs EP 3bet is the strongest 3bet. Why? Because in BB he doesn't have to isolate you once it's folded to him, as he can get with his hand HU with u even if he just calls.

That being said, it's really tough to fold the river here. However if you think he never does this as a bluff, you should be able to find a fold. If he has a bluff here, he is repping the nuts really good.

Regards,

Skod

With that sample size you can't really rely heavily on math. He has 3betted just 5 hands. Unless you have notes/info on what he actually 3bet, you can't make that big assumptions.

His turn bet might be that small as he wants to save chips for bigger river bet, who knows. You should think about the whole postflop on the flop. Do you want to make a call down if he keeps betting?

Without any reads on what the opponent 3bets, I would call turn and call any river.

Overall sample is 1k hands

But on 3bet it's 90 hands. Or is that 5/90 only against UTG raises?

It's decent sample size, but without any other information the math provided by OP makes too many assumptions. To fold this hand hero would need some information that actually weights opponent's 3bet range towards aces a lot.

Yes, in general a BB vs UTG raise is strong AA.

Regards,

Skod

Villain certainly 3-bets a whole lot of other premium hands that can and have to bluff all the way, and quite a few 3 hands, too. As villain I'd valuebet most of my 3 and I'd add a lot of busted wraps if I thought hero was capable of calling a lot of TP on the turn. I personally would bet smaller on the turn in such a case, to make it impossible for hero to call on the river (2:1 odds would mean hero can't call profitably with anything worse than AA and 33, so basically he can't ever call).

In this case villain is offering us a price that is just right to make an unexploitable call.
But this is not just a matter of being unexploitable. We're at the absolute top of our range. For this price we can't fold this unless we know exactly how villain plays.

Yes i agree with what you are saying. I really don't think i could ever fold this in game. But when i call i always get shown AA. Maybe it's just selective memory though.

Also there aren't really many 3xxx in his range at all there. He just doesn't 3bet hands with danglers here from my experience. So we are just assuming villain is doing this as a bluff here, and the only value jam we beat is ATxx, but a guy that 3bets 5% usually isn't the type to jam thinly in this spots after being shown strenght.

Regards,

Skod

Also agree with everything. Yet, the problem of not calling our top range on the river is that we allow villain to bet his whole range which in return strongly reduces the EV of our call turn fold river range.
It's much better to call down our top range to increase the EV of our remaining range that has to fold on the river, because we have so many of these hands and we want to force villain to not bluff 100% of the time.

Kyyberi: yes, the 90 is just 3b vs MP, the sample to overall 3b is little over 300 (which again is still not enough to assuming it is the actual value). i just chose this particular value to make my point. as ETBrooD mentioned, the 3b percentage is not as important as how often he has AA. even in 3b of 3% at least one half of hands will probably be non AA hands, which is basically the same as 5.6% and all aces. of course, it is difficult to guess the actual percentage, in which case i tend to use my own ranges, which in this situation have about 2/3 of non AA hands. the point is, unless he 3bets exceptionally tight, there is still enough hands for him to bluff with on the flop.

ETBrooD: that is a good point about calling the top of our range, but i am not sure, if TT actually is the top of our range (at least on the turn and river). i mean, in absolute hand strength it obv is, but if also equitywise that's not that clear. AT or AK (or sometimes even weaker A) can easily have better equity against opponent's range. also they can very well make a big part of our flop calling range (for instance very likely bigger then TT)

Skodljivec: my (selective) memory tells me exactly the same, in fact, it tells me that like one or two years ago i've seen a lot of such bluffs, but i rarely see them now. but this possibly is just a variance. or do you have the same impression?

my question for all of you: you are all regs at limits around plo100, i believe, how likely would you make such a bluff?

Hi,

well we do hold the second nuts here; and since we don't have AA as we didn't 4bet preflop our hand should be the top of our range.

I'm not sure how often people bluff here as i often just fold at 100 and below... And i'm a winning player so i assume i'm doing the right thing haha ♦

Would be interesting if anyone would post like a hand in the last month where someone tried to rep AA in this spot in such a way.

Regards,

Skod