A4s in SB - maniac on button

Hi!

It rly depends on UTG. If you assume he will not raise a hand like KK,KQ,some FDs and maybe some bluffs like KJ then fold is totally correct since you are heavily behind his range and drawing too thin.

If u think he can have some bluffs,KK,KQ,even lower pockets are possible then this becomes incorrect. It should be clear that on this board maniac donking is so weak and you have a huge edge on his range. Then vs UTG you are just a slight dog which makes it a call.

If we take a middling version...KK,KQs,KJs and Ax+

Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.97% 53.67% 2.30% KK+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+
BU 13.16% 12.15% 1.01% 77-66, A9s-A7s, KJs, K6s-K5s, QTs-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T8s-T7s, 95s-94s, A8o-A6o, QTo-Q8o, J8o-J7o, T8o+
SB 30.87% 27.85% 3.02% Ah4h

I gave BU just some random hands,adding more doesnt rly change much, you have around 30% equity which is pretty borderline in this spot when you dont close the action...strictly equity speaking is prolly a call.

All in all I dont mind your fold,especially when you havent seen UTG doing wierd things. If you had a backdoor FD then calling would definatelly be my preffer play but in this case I kindda like it, and you are even OOP.

Though one I must say

Thanks Dawnfall

UTG is the passive Fish and UTG is just raising Preflop and he's got still 16% PFR and he might be betting with JJ TT Qx KK etc and BU is raising the Flop with almost any2. I think Dawnfall saw that the Preflop aggressor - who is passive - has been raising the Flop. If so i'd agree on folding but since UTG could be betting with his entire Range and BU has any2. You should coldcall the Flop and see what UTG does. If he's applying more pressure by 3betting the Flop you should call the Flop and Fold the Turn since he's certainly not reraising with KQ but with AJ+ etc. Fold is a big mistake in this constellation, though UTG's raise is somewhat reasonable. Coldcall Flop and from then on proceed cautiously by calling Turn and calling the River.

Yap I missread:) I agree with firsttsunami,folding here is a big mistake. In my opinion this should actually be a 3bet because we are OOP,also if UTG then caps we have an easy fold on the turn.