Nl4 13082014 - K9s combo draw vs raise

I'd personally prefer to raise the flop(and call a shove) and shove the turn and get it in while I'm on a monster draw out of position. This will most likely fold out other draws on the turn, and we want this.

As played, there are few reasons for you to bet the turn because you're clearly not folding both players and you will fold to a raise. I guess you wanted to see a cheap river.

Thank you for your thoughts.

What about the multi-way factor. Are we not running into the problem of being behind since the set chance increase in this multi-way? Open-ended and flush draw combo are behind of a set, 35% to 65% or something. We do not get the right equity, if presume pushing it versus a set? One-on-one this would be a 100% raise/shove/call AI... Not sure about it when it is 4-way.

About the turn, I agree - check/call seemed like a more reasonable decision.. depending on the bet size.

Sure, there's an increased set possibility, but it's not as high as you might think. Assuming small blinds completes with almost any 2 cards and the limpers would have raised TT+, the remaining pocket pairs account for 3.62% of all possible remaining combos, each having a 1/8 chance to flop a set. We could assume they have a 10-20% limping range with no reads on them and limping is usually the sign of a weak player, and a lot of that range is constructed from non-broadway cards(because they'd be more likely to raise those hands than limp them).

I find it more likely for you to be against 2 pairs or a draw here, so against a single opponent you will show a profit in the long run for sure, but yes, sometimes you will run into a set or an A high flush draw. Against a set, you have about 39% equity

Board: 8♠7♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    39.19%  38.28%   0.91% { Kc9c }
MP3    60.81%  59.90%   0.91% { 88 }

"Worst" case scenario: multiple players have flopped a set, a draw or 2 pairs. This makes it a good spot for you to get it all-in since even 35% equity will get you a profit in a 3-handed pot. BUT, even against 2 sets, your hand has 42.5% equity here(it increases from the heads-up scenario because the other set takes away outs from the full house).

Board: 8♠7♣6♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    42.64%  41.97%   0.66% { Kc9c }
MP3    52.16%  51.50%   0.66% { 88 }
CO      5.20%   4.54%   0.66% { 77 }

I hope you find this useful.

Thank you for your corrections regarding the equity %. I gave your examples a little thought and tried to match those with real equity from this pot perspective.

First, let's calculate equity, assuming we go for broke by re-raise pot and then facing a 3-bet allin from either MP or SB.

TOTAL POT: 0.16 (preflop pot)+0.12 (SB bet)+0.80 (hero re-pot)+ 3.84/3.96 (SB/MP allin, taken into consideration the only stack portion the hero can win)+ 3.16 (hero's call) = 7.96/8.08

Equity against SB shove: 3.16/7.96=39.69% of equity
Equity against MP shove: 3.16/8.08=39.20% of equity

1. Against a set we have, as you said, 39% equity. This is actually a break-even call then?
2. Against a complete nut straight, we have 39% equity. A break-even call again?
3. Against a Axs nut flush draw, we have 35% equity. It would mean a losing call in the long perspective?
4. Two pairs and a complete bottom straight (54) are the only two scenarios that I see somehow going crazy (if the players are bad enough) and that we have good enough equity against (roughly 50%) against those combos.

2 break-even scenarios, 2 winning scenarios, 1 losing scenario = call?

The second example is interesting. Though, we should consider the worst case scenario here:
HERO 15.84%
Axs flush draw 20.27%
Set 63.90%

Even if that is two full stacks (MP and SB going crazy), that makes 26% equity.

But of course, that is a very sick coincidence, if hero runs into this setup.

I still have some doubts regarding the play for stacks on flop but the calculations convince me more and more... Thanks again for the input.

You are missing out some hands that you have beaten and will call or make a shove(let's not forget they are likely to be fish), such as pair + OESD or pair + flush draw or top 2 pairs, and you have already invested some money into the pot, so the ~40% equity should be enough to make the call.

On top of that, the line that I suggested will give you fold equity on both the flop and the turn and this is the key element here. If the opponent or opponents decide to just call the flop 3bet to see a turn, you will even fold out some stronger holdings than your own when you shove it, such as an ace-high flush draw or a pair + a draw.