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AA vs donk tight guy

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 56.6 BB (VPIP: 41.51, PFR: 32.08, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 55)
SB: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 27.50, PFR: 20.63, 3Bet Preflop: 6.94, Hands: 162)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.68, PFR: 15.82, 3Bet Preflop: 7.26, Hands: 1,178)
Hero (UTG): 126.46 BB
MP: 10.28 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
CO: 105.66 BB (VPIP: 21.35, PFR: 16.56, 3Bet Preflop: 4.91, Hands: 4,212)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ A♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 6♣ 9♥ 6♠
BB bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 3♥
BB bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (34.5 BB, 2 players) Q♣
BB bets 23 BB, Hero calls 23 BB

Spoiler

BB shows Q♠ Q♦ (Full House, Queens full of Sixes) (Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
Hero mucks A♣ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes) (Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
BB wins 76.48 BB

I saw him once calling 1/2 pot size BB vs BU on JJ6 then donk poting turn, I folded so I didnt see the hand. He donks 5%, so I can assume it is value?
Still he could be donking overpairs, so I call. 3bet vs UTG 5%, vs MP 10%, so somehow it doesnt make sense that he has overpairs, also makes no sense that he donks them?

He has stat "river bluff frequency" only 20%, so I guess it is very close call, hoping he donks KK? I think he doesnt ever bluffs this way.


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4 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

i don't think this is close at all.

And your sample is 1k hands so your positional 3b stats are virtually useless. So are your river bluff frequency stats. 1 out of 5 times is hardly a strong read here and doesn't warrant such a huge adjustment to your calldown ranges.

AA is pretty high up your river range and I would never fold it without an extremely strong read


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Sh3yk
Joined: 15.04.2009

Hey guys, and how about to raise on the flop or turn?

Villain won't have 6x in his range. I don't think he would db with 99. So, he has bluffs and TT~QQ in his range.

I don't expect to see a reg bluffing this way in this spot, so is quite probable that he is doing that with TT-QQ. Do you think he folds this range for a raise? Our raise also doesn't represents much, since we wouldn't raise nuts or good hands there, so villain could lvl himself and overplay his hand, couldn't him?

Or do you think there is enough bluff in his range in this particular spot, that make it a better choice to hero call down?

Sry if I'm saying anything nonsense, but I'm just a donkey. :f_grin:


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I think AA is good as a slowplay. IF he has a hand like KQ, we want him to stay in the hand and continue bluffing/valuebetting worse.

If he hits a K or Q, that's great for us. Besides we don't really want to have a raising range on that flop.

We would need to put him on mostly value hands in order to justify raising. I don't think we know for sure what his range is without some stats or reads.


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Sh3yk
Joined: 15.04.2009

Thx mbml, good pointed.


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