Is this really stupid on the bubble?

you have just 12bb left and both P5 and P8 have you covered. you barely have fold equity vs P5 and certainly no fold equity at all vs P8. P5 probably just folds because P5 has a bigger stack and P8 is still active after P5.

do the math about P8's options if P5 folds:

pot after P8 calls: 55046
P8 has to call: 20148
pot odds: 20148/55046 = 0.366

that means P8 needs only an equity of 36.6%. because of icm that transforms into something around 40%. with that he has to call most pocket pairs (certainly 66+) and high broadway combos and can only fold (if at all) hands like baby aces or small connectors). but if P8 is tight he would probably have no hand called P5's original raise with which he now has to call your shove anyway.

things would be different, if you would be heads-up with only P5 and you would have a little bigger stack, lets say around 15bb to 18bb. then the resteal would be a good play.

We are on the bubble and the 28 is with 50chips left.

he has one fifth of an ante left on the bubble... Yes, this is the poker tournament equivalent of shooting yourself in the head with a tank. Or trying to kill the son of Jason Bourne and Arnold Schwarzenegger (Arnold does what he wants, he can get pregnant).

Originally posted by mafi1968
you have just 12bb left and both P5 and P8 have you covered. you barely have fold equity vs P5 and certainly no fold equity at all vs P8. P5 probably just folds because P5 has a bigger stack and P8 is still active after P5.

do the math about P8's options if P5 folds:

pot after P8 calls: 55046
P8 has to call: 20148
pot odds: 20148/55046 = 0.366

that means P8 needs only an equity of 36.6%. because of icm that transforms into something around 40%. with that he has to call most pocket pairs (certainly 66+) and high broadway combos and can only fold (if at all) hands like baby aces or small connectors). but if P8 is tight he would probably have no hand called P5's original raise with which he now has to call your shove anyway.

things would be different, if you would be heads-up with only P5 and you would have a little bigger stack, lets say around 15bb to 18bb. then the resteal would be a good play.

Yes definitly stupid, I can't really get why I thought he could have fold 66-99 even KQ is a call.. I guess I just felt that his call was weak and he was scared to loose half stack on the bubble. He was just scared because of the P5 open which was covering him!
Would have been smarter a stop and go here on this flop or a fold pre is always better in this situation?
Thanks for the reply!

Originally posted by Shevtshenko

We are on the bubble and the 28 is with 50chips left.

he has one fifth of an ante left on the bubble... Yes, this is the poker tournament equivalent of shooting yourself in the head with a tank. Or trying to kill the son of Jason Bourne and Arnold Schwarzenegger (Arnold does what he wants, he can get pregnant).

Yeah, I killed myself for no reason.. I was hoping that some1 could find something that could make sense in my TP, but I guess it doesn't make sense this move in this situation, no matter the TP..

I ask you the same I asked in the previous reply: do you think a stop and go here(with this flop) would have been better or still a very stupid thing not to fold untill the 50cips guy doesn't bust?

Ps: I knw he was pregnant once.. in Junior.. Still I think kill their baby would be much more ballsy then just get suicidal on a mtt bubble.

Thanks for your reply!