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JJ vs reg tricky river spot

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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

PKR, $50 Buy-in (100/200 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 13,630 (68.2 bb)
Hero (BB): 15,512 (77.6 bb)
MP: 5,600 (28 bb)
CO: 5,783 (28.9 bb)
BTN: 9,075 (45.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
MP raises to 500, 3 folds, Hero calls 300

Flop: (1,100) 4 T 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 550, Hero calls 550

Turn: (2,200) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 1,467, Hero calls 1,467

River: (5,134) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 3,083 and is all-in, Hero ???

Hello,
Opener is a know reg; Hes got tight stats but I have seen him make very loose EP,MP opens (esp. in 6max). Since he folds to my 3bets a lot (75%+) decided to flat and play postflop knowing he is barelling alot (flop IP 76% turn 69%). I made a mistake by x/c turn as I could easily get it in there; As played do you think is this an easy call on the river, given we need ~28% equity to BE? (I don't have particular reads whether he is very keen on bluffing rivers)


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11 replies
julito23
Joined: 24.08.2011

Out of position, I would still 3bet this hand, even if he is folding a lot. As played, he would check back all his showdown value range, including Tx. Therefore, all you are beating is a bluff. On the other hand, that ace is probably the worst possible card, and since your hand looks a lot like Tx, medium pocket pairs, he might try yo use it to bluff you off your hand. All in all, I think vs a competent reg you would have to cry call, unless you have the read that he is giving up on a lot of rivers.

Hopefully some cash game player can give you some better reasons to play this hand in one way or another.


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Crrrrrrr
Joined: 13.05.2012

Originally posted by julito23
value range, including Tx. Therefore, all you are beating is a bluff.

You can't say that without knowing Vilain. I would value bet a Tx there most of the time. The hand is worth 2 barrels and I'd rather take them Flop-Turn and check behind River.


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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012

You had shove turn for value if you feel that his double barrel range is too polarized and contains way more bluffs than hands that beat you (QQ+ 18 combos sets/fh/poker 7 combos, 78s 2 combos, 76s 2 combos, A7s 2 combos = 31 combos vs say AKo 12 AQo 12 = 24 combos and some random low/mid pps that he turns into bluff hoping to fold you from Tx here like 55,66,88 18 combos total 42 combos that you beat vs 31 that you don't , if he has even more bluffs then this is super easy jam turn).

River you shouldn't call because only thing that you beat are random mid pps that he might (but I highly doubt it) turn into 3 barrel bluff and some missed FDs (most of them are with Ax).
Also from reverse hand reading point of you, he is reg and he knows you are reg. He sees you calling down 2 streets and yet he fires 3rd barell. He knows you have strong showdown value and he is clearly value betting you here more often than bluffing.
Easy river fold.

GL my friend :)


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julito23
Joined: 24.08.2011

Crrrrr what do you expect to get value from on the river with TX?


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julito23
Joined: 24.08.2011

Btw, anyone knows what happened to the PS hand judges?


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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012

Originally posted by julito23
Btw, anyone knows what happened to the PS hand judges?

They discounted paying for the service so now it is free and many choose not to do it (takes too much time as we all know with HH).


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julito23
Joined: 24.08.2011

WOW, I was not expecting that. Thanks for the info Ivica, and for all your helpful comments as well.


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Crrrrrrr
Joined: 13.05.2012

Originally posted by julito23
Crrrrr what do you expect to get value from on the river with TX?

I'd check behind Tx river.


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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012

Originally posted by julito23
WOW, I was not expecting that. Thanks for the info Ivica, and for all your helpful comments as well.

You welcome julito :)
I am doing all the commenting in between my grind brakes. GL !


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booomm
Joined: 22.03.2011

I don't play mtts very much, but I think given stack sizes this a 3bet regardless of his fold to 3b, our hand could use some protection and we give him a good price on his 4bet bluffs with A6s or whatever he decides to bluff with.


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uglyboy88
Joined: 19.03.2009

i see my self ch/jaming turn for sure, or ch/r calling off, but as played i would ch aggression stats on river and mke my decission by timing tell, but overall as you are telling that he barrels much i would call because its also good card for him (in his perspective to bluff on, if he does not think deep enough). close ur eyes and call


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