AKo vs rivershove

The river let's us beat aces and unlikely other twopairs. From UTG I would exclude KT, so what should he have that we don't beat? 77, TT - sure, but nobody has only that few combos in his range!
So if i dont know the oponent I call, accepting that 3barrels on micros are usually strong.

Originally posted by SvenBe
The river let's us beat aces and unlikely other twopairs. From UTG I would exclude KT, so what should he have that we don't beat? 77, TT - sure, but nobody has only that few combos in his range!
So if i dont know the oponent I call, accepting that 3barrels on micros are usually strong.

I think flop check is big mistake, villians are freerolling tone of equity. we cant expect villian to call preflop offsuit Kx, so it is mostly KQs, KJs (if he doesnt 3bet them preflop, or fold, or check back flop or check turn, which is all realistic 4way vs utg and mp). So for Kx hands I would give him 0.5 combos at most. TT, 77 are off course most realistic on all streets, so I assign him 6 combos. JQs, 89s are realistic from preflop - turn, but he will take free card with some frequency, so I assign him 4 combos on betting turn. River, because NL5 is known for not 3 barrel bluffing, and especially not 4way, and especially not when all draws are busted and especially not when top card pairs, I assign him 0.5 bluffs on river. So with my assumption, calling river is burning money.

It's true. To make this a +EV call, villain has to overplay KQs,KJs or triple barrel bluff some of his missed draws.

Realistically, in a 4 way pot, people seldom triple barrel bluff. And the river let's us beat AA, but he's not calling preflop AA, just to push on a second king on the river.

{AK,KQs,KJs,TT,77,QJs} 50% equity = call

{AK,KQs,KJs,TT,77} 25% equity = fold

If I remember correctly, he pushed pretty quickly. So he didn't have to decide for long what to do. That's usually pretty strong, unless he has maniac stats.

Equilab told me this:

Masă: 7♦T♥K♠
       Equity  Câştig     Tie
MP3    51.77%  42.68%   9.09% { AsKd }
BU     48.23%  39.15%   9.09% { TT, 77, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

I excluded AA because I think BTN would squeeze preflop.

Originally posted by Zanardi1
Equilab told me this:

Masă: 7♦T♥K♠
       Equity  Câştig     Tie
MP3    51.77%  42.68%   9.09% { AsKd }
BU     48.23%  39.15%   9.09% { TT, 77, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

I excluded AA because I think BTN would squeeze preflop.

that range is surely unrealistic. regs dont cold call vs UTG and MP KTo, KJo, KQo, and sqeeze AK, also many sqeeze KQo. also very optimistic that villian bets flop and turn 4way with such sizes (just look how hero played AK here, he checked even flop, thats how most NL5 guys play 4way).

What MW pot on 3 streets? You are HU on turn and river... I think we should have start betting on flop.

Originally posted by nitrol
What MW pot on 3 streets? You are HU on turn and river... I think we should have start betting on flop.

the fact that flop is seen by 4 guys that makes flop bet and call range a lot tighter, so even though there are 2 players left on turn, the ranges are already very tight on flop, which is why villians will not go crazy with marginal hands.

I think 89s or JQs may also be in his range or he thinks you made a busted straight? Seems pretty aggressive from stats. Any info on what he has shown down with?

I guess you also need to consider you have not shown much strength playing the flop passively so I think the aggressive shove on the river might be induced by that??

Dunno tho! Would appreciate thoughts.

why is everyone contemplating a fold here ? no, don't fold, if you fold AK on this spot, what are you calling? and even before the river, why are we calling the turn if we are folding the best river in the deck for our exact hand? this is litterally the best run out we could hope for.
we are way up our range, folding river would be burning the 33bb we already invested in the pot . and I don't think we should stick to the assumption that vilain is a reg here, he is 33/33/12 over 21 hands, he could vary from a 18/16 nit just running hot to a 42/36 maniac calling every KXs otb, who knows really ?
so basically vilain is unknown here, just go with a theorical approach on these kind of spots, pretty sure you can't fold this GTO-wise, so it's a snap call otr.

why is everyone contemplating a fold here ?

not really everyone.

no, don't fold, if you fold AK on this spot, what are you calling?

It doesnt matter at all if you fold 100% range, if villian is value heavy as in this spot. Yes, he might overplay some Kx, but still he is not bluffing here (and super unlikely he is bluff heavy in this spot). we should only care about defending unexploitable if you dont have information that villian is value heavy.

I think that assumption about villian being value heavy in the spot is very strong, because if you filter 3barrels in 4way pot, and on paired river card, you will see that it is like never a bluff. I did such analyses for NL100, it was 11% bluff frequency when betting from flop to river on paired board, for HU (using pt4). I also did it for NL5 because my friend plays it, and it is similar. I didnt analyse it for 4way pots, but it can just be less bluffy.

and even before the river, why are we calling the turn if we are folding the best river in the deck for our exact hand?

Folding river because it is -EV, and calling turn because it is +EV. Villian will bet draws on turn, but will shutdown on so bad river card for bluffing. River card was ok, AK is now better than T7s, but it is not the best card. Best card for hero is T and then 7. When villian bets river, it doesnt matter if it is best card for hero, or not, it just matters what is max ev line.

Even if villain is never bluffing, surely at nl5 we can put KQ in his range which makes this easy river call?

Equity Win Tie
MP3 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% AsKd
BU 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% TT, 77, KQs, KQo

nice

metza, isn't villain going to squeeze KQo? I think only KQs is a call here...

Originally posted by nitrol
metza, isn't villain going to squeeze KQo? I think only KQs is a call here...

it is standard sqeeze or fold spot for KQ. KQs could be a call, but still mostly sqeeze. Still low chance that he will bet all KQ combos flop and turn with that sizes.

even though mlatasrb definatly has a very good point here, I still think this is a call, but I could wrong so I'll prob try to run some numbers later.
but guys keep in mind that we just can't start assuming that he sqz KQo and flats KQs because we think that's the right play people make mistakes all the time, he could end up with K5s here, who knows really ?

but guys keep in mind that we just can't start assuming that he sqz KQo and flats KQs because we think that's the right play people make mistakes all the time, he could end up with K5s here, who knows really ?

Sure, he could have it. Thats why we cant assign him all KQ combos, but since it is NL5 and he has reg stats on small sample, we can assign him lets say 4 combos KQ calling preflop. Then postflop similar thing, you cant give him all 4 combos KQ betting flop and turn (hero checked AK which means villian will also check KQ with some frequency).