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Aces on a draw heavy board?

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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 201.2 BB (VPIP: 28.95, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
SB: 90.8 BB
Hero (BB): 108.2 BB
UTG: 168.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 105.2 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 30.68, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 89)
CO: 163.4 BB (VPIP: 28.40, PFR: 17.75, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 172)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♠ A♦ A♣ 3♦

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12.4 BB, MP calls 9.4 BB, BTN calls 9.4 BB

Flop: (37.6 BB, 3 players) 6♥ 9♠ 3♥
Hero bets 24.2 BB, MP raises to 92.8 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 68.6 BB

Turn: (223.2 BB, 2 players) 5♦

River: (223.2 BB, 2 players) K♥
Players agreed to run it twice.

Turn #2: (223.2 BB, 2 players) 9♥

River #2: (223.2 BB, 2 players) 8♣

Spoiler

Hero shows T♠ A♦ A♣ 3♦ (One Pair, Aces)
Board #1 (Pre 60%, Flop 26%, Turn 20%)
(Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
Board #2 (Pre 58%, Flop 27%, Turn 5%)

MP shows 9♣ 4♠ 6♣ 3♠ (Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)
Board #1 (Pre 40%, Flop 74%, Turn 80%)
(Full House, Nines full of Sixes)
Board #2 (Pre 42%, Flop 73%, Turn 95%)

MP wins 107.2 BB
MP wins 107.2 BB

This spot I felt was very close, villain opens the pot in HJ. He then flats a 3-bet in zoom PLO. He is 4-betting AAxx and I have AAxx so he doesn't have that. KK could do this but would like have a flush draw when pushing. PJ would be very helpful in this hand.

I was just trying to consider hand combinations when villain shoves, I don't think 33-99 is possible vs villain who F3b 33% of the time. 55/31 with F3b of 33% and Aggro factor of 2. 9876 possible, 3456, 3678. It is very awkward and one where I thought villain would have plenty of draws to go with it. 789T etc.

I know I am behind to 2pair obviously but how often does villain actually have 2-pair here? How would you guys go about working this out, I thought it was fairly unlikely and made a bad call but let me know how you make these decisions.


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4 replies
Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

T987 has smtg like 60% against your hand, over 70% if he has FD to go with it. I dont like to sqz OOP this hand, it leads to problems like here, where you've no idea what you should do.


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WhiteWalker
Joined: 06.06.2015

I do have the odds to call vs T987, it would be a mistake to fold in that scenario. I was just trying to compare his 3-bet call range in this spot and decided he did not have many sets so I went with it. I think squeezing is fine, i mean we get ourself in to a an awkward situation every now and then but a c-bet often takes it down so much at micros that it has to be profitable.


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Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

Originally posted by WhiteWalker
I think squeezing is fine, i mean we get ourself in to a an awkward situation every now and then but a c-bet often takes it down so much at micros that it has to be profitable.

This is not no-limit hold-em, this is omaha:

No-one is folding preflop, no-one is folding postflop if they have something decent or even only a draw, cbet 3-way certainly wont take pots down very often on boards like this.

Here you need 41% on the flop to get it in and you wont get it, and after you try to take the pot down you already made the mistake and priced yourself all-in.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

We will talk about this hand too in tomorrow's PokerJuice stream. :)


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