lets propose we face a 3bet from an opponant with a reasonable contructed range (decent reg) and we know his 5bet jamming range is QQ+,AK for 100bb's
As standard I am 4betting and stacking off here with Ace king but it is really plus EV+?
OOP
I open to 3bb
villian 3bets to 9bb
hero 4bets to 22bb
villian jams 100bb
1.5bb's in the pot from the blinds
So -> Risk/Risk+Reward = 91 / (91+[3+9+22+91+1.5]) = 41% equity required
IP BTNvSB
= 93/(93+[2+7+18+93+1]) = 43% equity required
Actual equity with AKo = 38.8% and 41.91 with AKs
We also consider at stars for example rake cap for my limit is $2 so we loose 4% of the pot in rake
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
MP3 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% { AKo }
OOP even excluding rake we don't have enough equity to call with AKo and AKs is marginal?
IP both a folds in isolation
So some questions from a vacuum point of view
- Given that i very very rarely see people shoving with KQ or A5 or something is it really +EV to call it off? also taking into account rake?
- Should villian be jamming some bluff hands & what would they be or should he use a min 5bet strategy?
- is my sizing OK for 4betting OOP 22bb's -> 9?
The from a theory point of view
if we are calling it off to avoid being exploitable (folding too much to 4bets) then the impact of 4bet folding it means we need to have a smaller 4betting range, thus in turn means we need to call more hands to 3bets. So perhaps calling it off is slightly minus but it's less minus than calling suited connectors OOP for example?
