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[Highlight] Cbet or not 3bet pot KK on Axx board

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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Hi guys,

in my experience this is a recurrent topic of questions and debate in coachings, foruns and others. I don't think there is a place where the information is compiled in a pratical manner. So here it goes:

25NL hand:

Villain (unknown regular) opens 2.5bbs from BU

Hero in BB 3bets to 9bbs with K♣:K♦:

Villain calls

Flop A♥:3♠:8♣:

Hero ?

There are a lot of misconceptions regarding this spot. And it's no surprise since not long ago a lot of coaches and video producers were advocating a cbet in this situation. There were a lot of arguments for a cbet, and the majority were variations of the classic "If we check/call we will be faced up"

I will discuss the most important concept at work here. More advanced discussions like the possibility of having a ~25-33% potsize betting range that would include KK will be ignored.

So, let's start from the beginning, assuming a half pot sizing, do we have a "value" bet on the flop with our hand? We would need at the very least 50% equity against villain continuing range to call our bet a "value bet".


Board: A♥3♠8♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    40.97%  40.97%   0.00% { KdKc }
MP3    59.03%  59.03%   0.00% { TT-77, 33, AQs-A2s, 98s, 87s, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, AQo-AJo, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc }

Not really, we are not doing well when villain calls our bet. And of course we would check/fold turn. Cbeting flop and check/calling a blank turn is, in my opinion, a horrible idea (without some very sick read on the opponent).

So, we do not have a value bet on the flop. But should we bet for "protection"? When we talk about protection we should be mostly refering to not giving free equity to villain's check folding range. Like cbetting 55 on 742r in a BU vs BB situation, a lot of our EV comes from when villain folds his overcards that have ~25% equity against our hand. So in this KK on Axx spot it should be clear to you that protection is not an issue. If villain has a worse hand than ours, it is very likely it will stay the worse at showdown.

So, apparently it comes down to the "I'll be faced up" thingy.

Let's stage a little chat between me and a virtual PokerStrategy member (I had this conversation a dozen times):

Me: Even if you are face up (which is not necessarily true), what is the problem? How can he exploit you?
Student: Villain will be bluff triple barreling me a lot
Me: if you think so, why don't you just check/call 3 times?
Student: ...
Me: let's say you decide to check/call flop with AJ, will you be happier calling down on the river with AJ? Do you expect villain to show up with hands like AT?
Student: not really.
Me: Then AJ and KK on the river will be pretty similar, they will be bluffcatchers. On the river you have a bluffcatch situation. The only way villain could exploit the fact that we are capped on the flop is by thin value betting, betting 3 times for value with hands like AT/A9/A7, etc. But you know as well as me that this does not happen. This is why turning okay value betting hands into bluffcatchers is not the greatest idea, they are only bluffcatchers that do not punish thin value bets from villain. It's why, in this exact flop spot, AJ should be a mostly cbet and not a check/call. It would make more sense to check/call a hand like AK (that could punish villain's value bets) and cbet a hand like AJ.

I hope you guys enjoyed this, hopefully it will bring some sort of "ah-ha" moment, just as it did to me back in the day.

Now, go practice your new learned skills


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11 replies
FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

Hello double2,

Firstly whoever is talking about being exploited because your hand is face up, is wrong you said the player is unknown witch means we are unknown to him too, how would he know we wouldn't check AK on this mega dry flop witch IMO is the right play with AK, so I would check pocket KK, if player is a reg he would probably keep AK in our range and check for pot control with a lower pair and bet AQ that is if he will call this vs unkown player but strongly I don't think he will call it, I also think an unknown regular will play there hand straight forward since we are also unknown and bet AK check smaller pair and then there hand is face up as much as ours, we can bet turn 30% and bet river 30% since a bigger bet will just get TT-QQ to fold


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

agree on this flop i would cbet PP's less than 99 because getting KJ to fold and taking it down on the flop is a decent result. Think TT is closeish probably still a bet followed by JJ and KK-QQ is a clear check. I would also check A2,A4,A5 combos and pretty much cbet like 90% on this board

do we apply the same concept to 4bet pots? like this....

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 144.72 BB (VPIP: 22.30, PFR: 19.06, 3Bet Preflop: 12.27, Hands: 437)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 101)
UTG: 119.48 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 20.19, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 220)
MP: 102.44 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 71)
CO: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 27)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ Q♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, BB calls 13 BB

Flop: (44 BB, 2 players) K♠ 5♥ 7♠
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (44 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, BB bets 21.84 BBhero..


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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

Yes but, the only problem here is that villain is still likely to check back TT, I think in this particular hand based on the actions and villains bet is implying he has JJ, this is assuming he is a Tag reg though, lags and maniacs could have anything here (not so much lags) what was your thought process through that hand? Are we on the same page?

Also we can apply a much stronger range in 4bet pots so were only talking like TT+ AK, we need to know you are on blind vs blind also I think that would be slightly different too, that is one of my weak area's I need to improve on, personally I would much prefer a shove over his 3bet too i notice people call much wider but i am playing NL10


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

Yeah its blind v blind... and yeah I I'm thinking villa was tightish and reppng JJ. Decent reg would be shoving JJ & kk vs me pre. He does have AQ also for which two combos of clubs and hearts aren't great for us ott


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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

I definitely don't think AQ is in his range since that will bet the flop almost always to rep AK especially IP and take the pot down, since your range is like the topic above Face up to QQ KK, if i was bb i would probably bet flop shove turn, or shove flop depending on stack size since i wouldn't want to pot commit villain on the turn, with AQ :f_grin: i have made this play a few times already.

That is a spot also i like to be clever and check AK, at first glance people say we need to protect our hand vs draws witch is a massive mistake imo, since there range is big pairs and AQ+ there is only 2 combos of flushdraws in there range. we disguise our hand and throw our opponent because he automatically thinks we need to protect our hand on this draw heavy board with AK and remove it from our range ive noticed many regs do this and call turn and river lighter


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

@double2
you told me this about 2 month ago, in one forum hand when i was asking should i cbet this flop?
since then.... my default play is x/c, x/c ,x/decide

I read this post and i think it is confusing for some people. I guess i have 2 things to point out:
There are 2 kinds of ways to play... (exploitative and gto)
1) I listened to your advice since 2 month ago and i understand default play x/c, x/c ,x/decide is the most GTO line that can be.
2)If we play exploitative, then forget this line because when you get into leveling with players, lines are not straight forward.

so when student says:
Student: Villain will bluff triple barreling me a lot
you say: let him get into leveling with you and you do not level back. He will level himself.
Also if you want to play exploitative , use the simple exploits like Fold to 3bet, Fold to Cbet, dont get into turn and river leveling (which are a lot more expensive).

-----------------------------------------------------------
Pls help me in today's live coaching - Emergency room: hands under review
I posted 6 hands and need a gto'ish input in some river decisions (the most expensive decisions).


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asimos
Joined: 22.07.2011

@Double2

we had this discussion in the past:)
Assume hero in the sb 3betting linear range.
Check calling is attractive if villain bluffs the flop...but he shouldnt bc you dont have check folding range. The last bc simply you have many value bets to justify bet bluff 100 % with rest range. If villain doesnt bluff vs checks how you adapt?


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

If villian doesn't bluff vs checks then it's simple to check kk because we wont be bluffed and fold when he bets.


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Originally posted by bonecore
@double2
you told me this about 2 month ago, in one forum hand when i was asking should i cbet this flop?
since then.... my default play is x/c, x/c ,x/decide

I read this post and i think it is confusing for some people. I guess i have 2 things to point out:
There are 2 kinds of ways to play... (exploitative and gto)
1) I listened to your advice since 2 month ago and i understand default play x/c, x/c ,x/decide is the most GTO line that can be.
2)If we play exploitative, then forget this line because when you get into leveling with players, lines are not straight forward.

so when student says:
Student: Villain will bluff triple barreling me a lot
you say: let him get into leveling with you and you do not level back. He will level himself.
Also if you want to play exploitative , use the simple exploits like Fold to 3bet, Fold to Cbet, dont get into turn and river leveling (which are a lot more expensive).

-----------------------------------------------------------
Pls help me in today's live coaching - Emergency room: hands under review
I posted 6 hands and need a gto'ish input in some river decisions (the most expensive decisions).

bonecore, you are mixing up some concepts here. Forget GTO for a minute. Let's go back to simple basic playing: you can't bet so you check flop, if you think villain will have enough bluffs you check/call. Turn you check again, if you think villain will have enough bluffs you call, and same for the river. It is this simple, no more complications needed. Why should we forget this line if we are talking exploitative?

Originally posted by asimos
@Double2

we had this discussion in the past:)
Assume hero in the sb 3betting linear range.
Check calling is attractive if villain bluffs the flop...but he shouldnt bc you dont have check folding range. The last bc simply you have many value bets to justify bet bluff 100 % with rest range. If villain doesnt bluff vs checks how you adapt?

Nope, SB's range can't bet 100%, even if it is linear. You do have a check/folding range, mostly KQo/KJo/QJo.

Second, I think that you would need a sick read on your opponent to say that he will almost never stab this flop. But if you do have it then you just check/fold KK. Or you exploitatively bet a smaller sizing, like 25-33% pot.

Originally posted by mattyvx
agree on this flop i would cbet PP's less than 99 because getting KJ to fold and taking it down on the flop is a decent result. Think TT is closeish probably still a bet followed by JJ and KK-QQ is a clear check. I would also check A2,A4,A5 combos and pretty much cbet like 90% on this board

do we apply the same concept to 4bet pots? like this....

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 144.72 BB (VPIP: 22.30, PFR: 19.06, 3Bet Preflop: 12.27, Hands: 437)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 101)
UTG: 119.48 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 20.19, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 220)
MP: 102.44 BB (VPIP: 17.91, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 71)
CO: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 27)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ Q♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, BB calls 13 BB

Flop: (44 BB, 2 players) K♠ 5♥ 7♠
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (44 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, BB bets 21.84 BBhero..

This flop situation depends a lot on the possibility or not for villain to have AK in his range. Most decent regulares will not have it, and this is a board that should favor your range, so with QQ I'd bet ~25-33% against a good 200nl reg. Against this guy who apparentely is a nit then maybe he has too many AK so check is okay (I'd still bet small). Turn if you check I think you have to call, villain checked back flop so I would assume the possibility of him having AK drops a bit, and he might even bet now AJ (besides AQ and some other random bluffs), you kinda only loose to JJ.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

We would need at the very least 50% equity against villain continuing range to call our bet a "value bet".

This is only valid if we bet all in (no more actions to follow), or if we assume it will be checked done 100% of time after our bet. Otherwise, it depends on a lot more factors, as how often we get raised, how much is protection bet vs fold range important, what range will villain bet on following streets, board structure etc.

Otherwise, the analyses is solid. I dont agree with checking rather AK than AJ in order to punish villain for cbetting value hands as AT-AQ. I think the reason to check AK should be because it is max Ev, and it should be obvious that AK has much higher EV of betting since we produce in average higher pots and have high equity hand. AJ is more thinner value, cant 3 barrel for value so we would have to check at some point, so I would check such hands on each street with some frequency if trying to play unexploitable.


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