Hi guys,
in my experience this is a recurrent topic of questions and debate in coachings, foruns and others. I don't think there is a place where the information is compiled in a pratical manner. So here it goes:
25NL hand:
Villain (unknown regular) opens 2.5bbs from BU
Hero in BB 3bets to 9bbs with K♣:K♦:
Villain calls
Flop A♥:3♠:8♣:
Hero ?
There are a lot of misconceptions regarding this spot. And it's no surprise since not long ago a lot of coaches and video producers were advocating a cbet in this situation. There were a lot of arguments for a cbet, and the majority were variations of the classic "If we check/call we will be faced up"
I will discuss the most important concept at work here. More advanced discussions like the possibility of having a ~25-33% potsize betting range that would include KK will be ignored.
So, let's start from the beginning, assuming a half pot sizing, do we have a "value" bet on the flop with our hand? We would need at the very least 50% equity against villain continuing range to call our bet a "value bet".
Board: A♥3♠8♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.97% 40.97% 0.00% { KdKc }
MP3 59.03% 59.03% 0.00% { TT-77, 33, AQs-A2s, 98s, 87s, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, AQo-AJo, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc }
Not really, we are not doing well when villain calls our bet. And of course we would check/fold turn. Cbeting flop and check/calling a blank turn is, in my opinion, a horrible idea (without some very sick read on the opponent).
So, we do not have a value bet on the flop. But should we bet for "protection"? When we talk about protection we should be mostly refering to not giving free equity to villain's check folding range. Like cbetting 55 on 742r in a BU vs BB situation, a lot of our EV comes from when villain folds his overcards that have ~25% equity against our hand. So in this KK on Axx spot it should be clear to you that protection is not an issue. If villain has a worse hand than ours, it is very likely it will stay the worse at showdown.
So, apparently it comes down to the "I'll be faced up" thingy.
Let's stage a little chat between me and a virtual PokerStrategy member (I had this conversation a dozen times):
Me: Even if you are face up (which is not necessarily true), what is the problem? How can he exploit you?
Student: Villain will be bluff triple barreling me a lot
Me: if you think so, why don't you just check/call 3 times?
Student: ...
Me: let's say you decide to check/call flop with AJ, will you be happier calling down on the river with AJ? Do you expect villain to show up with hands like AT?
Student: not really.
Me: Then AJ and KK on the river will be pretty similar, they will be bluffcatchers. On the river you have a bluffcatch situation. The only way villain could exploit the fact that we are capped on the flop is by thin value betting, betting 3 times for value with hands like AT/A9/A7, etc. But you know as well as me that this does not happen. This is why turning okay value betting hands into bluffcatchers is not the greatest idea, they are only bluffcatchers that do not punish thin value bets from villain. It's why, in this exact flop spot, AJ should be a mostly cbet and not a check/call. It would make more sense to check/call a hand like AK (that could punish villain's value bets) and cbet a hand like AJ.
I hope you guys enjoyed this, hopefully it will bring some sort of "ah-ha" moment, just as it did to me back in the day.
Now, go practice your new learned skills
