Originally posted by Harrier88
My favorite MLB team is the Red Sox, so I'm relieved to hear you're not a Yankees fan.
Boston wins today. Betting 1.1 units to win 1.
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All right, I have $1.50 on Boston. Looking good so far.
Are you watching the game?
Originally posted by Harrier88
All right, I have $1.50 on Boston. Looking good so far.Are you watching the game?
I'm now (0-4 closing 4th inning), didn't know it was going to be broadcasted by my local sport channel.
Hope there aren't any surprises on the river. 
Always nice to start with a winner.
Originally posted by lkdr9494
Boston wins today. Betting 1.1 units to win 1.
After this result total is +1 unit.
Today's picks:
Yankees 1.15 units to win 1.
Blue Jays 1.1 units to win 1.
Twins 0.69 units to win 1.
Pirates 1.02 units to win 1.
Orioles 1.35 units to win 1.
Dodgers 1.25 units to win 1.
Lot of action today.
Originally posted by lkdr9494
Today's picks:
Yankees 1.15 units to win 1.
Blue Jays 1.1 units to win 1.
Twins 0.69 units to win 1.
Pirates 1.02 units to win 1.
Orioles 1.35 units to win 1.
Dodgers 1.25 units to win 1.
Wasn't sure which ones to pick, so I just put $0.40 on all of them plus a $0.20 accumulator bet in case all of them win. Total stake: $2.60.
Good luck to us all!
Originally posted by lkdr9494
After this result total is +1 unit.
Today's picks:
Yankees 1.15 units to win 1.
Blue Jays 1.1 units to win 1.
Twins 0.69 units to win 1.
Pirates 1.02 units to win 1.
Orioles 1.35 units to win 1.
Dodgers 1.25 units to win 1.Lot of action today.
After this results total is +4.85 units
Today's picks:
Blue Jays 2.15 units to win 2.15.
Reds 0.96 units to win 1.
Indians 0.95 units to win 1.
Gl
Originally posted by lkdr9494
Blue Jays 2.15 units to win 2.15.
Why do you bet so much on the Blue Jays this time?
Originally posted by Harrier88
Originally posted by lkdr9494
Blue Jays 2.15 units to win 2.15.Why do you bet so much on the Blue Jays this time?
They didn't win yesterday + if they lose today they get swept (lose 3 games of a series) as home club. Not likely to happen and odds are 1:1 so I decided to bet to win 1 unit + recover what I lost yesterday.
Originally posted by lkdr9494
They didn't win yesterday + if they lose today they get swept (lose 3 games of a series) as home club.
I guess that's fair enough, even though I think that every game should be seen as a single event, rather than as part of a series (watch out for the gambler's fallacy). Still, not a bad point.
Try not to chase your losses, though.
Looking pretty good so far, we're about halfway through and Toronto has a one point lead. Cincinnati still scoreless (bottom of the 3rd).
Originally posted by Harrier88
I guess that's fair enough, even though I think that every game should be seen as a single event.
This is a really gray area.
If it was betting the roulette every game should certainly be considered as a single event.
Nevertheless there is so much more involved when we are betting on people.
The odds only consider team stats. They don't take in count that a team will try their best trying to not get swept in their home with thousands of fans watching and cheering you up to get the victory.
I don't think baseball matches are single events, they are played in series and we should take advantage of that.
I'm not saying it's going to work everytime, but it will enough times to make it profitable. I remember back in 2011 I lost 7 units in a 3-game chase (Astros v Dodgers), Houston was last and sucked balls and Dodgers were playing decent. It was a 4-game series and Dodgers lose the 1st one, I bet the 2nd they lose, the 3rd they lose and finally the 4th.. they lose.
In the worst (very rare) case scenario you make a 3-game chase betting on the very favorite and lose 7 units. This happens far less than 1 in 7 series (usually the series are 3 games long which would make the chases 2-games long making your loses < 3 units).
So if I was in a similar situation I would make my 3-game chase knowing that it would be profitable in the long run.
Originally posted by lkdr9494
There is so much more involved when we are betting on people.
The odds only consider team stats. They don't take in count that a team will try their best trying to not get swept in their home with thousands of fans watching and cheering you up to get the victory.
Yeah, that's true.
I wouldn't really go as far as to double the stakes based on that alone, though. As long as you have other reasons to believe that the team has an edge, I guess you're fine.
Originally posted by Harrier88
Yeah, that's true.
I wouldn't really go as far as to double the stakes based on that alone, though. As long as you have other reasons to believe that the team has an edge, I guess you're fine.
Of course, being one game away of being swept doesn't mean an automatic 2-game chase, there are some other factors that one has to consider, and in this case most of these factors were favorable to run the 2-game chase.
This time it payed out and if you keep following this thread I'll show you that it's a profitable move to double the stakes in certain scenarios 
Hey man,
I know you're probably busy and stuff, but are going to post some more baseball picks any time soon, or tell us how your betting is going right now?
Hey mate, actually the last picks I posted were the last bets I made.
First, I had to cash $200 since I was running out of money (venezuelan money), and that amount is approximately what I need to get by until august.
I left exactly $140 to start playing poker again on july-september when I'm on vacation. With $300 I didn't expect much of a profit, less with $140.
Second, I meant to stop following the games for about a week because I had to do a lot of stuff and I assumed it'd be over in about a week, but everytime I finished something, something else came up until this weekend that I'm "free". It's no use to gather all the information for the past weeks make a couple of bets and then stop again.
So basically I'm taking a break from gambling right now.
Also read about your skrill issue and I'm very glad you were able to get the money back.
Good luck on the tables mate.
Originally posted by lkdr9494
Well, hello mates my name is Luis, I'm 20, I'm venezuelan and I've decided after giving it thought for these 2 weeks to create my own poker blog.About me
I've liked poker since I was 14, when I used to play with my friends almost everyday which eventually stopped about 2 years later. So I waited to become 18 and maybe try out some live poker. Didn't happen because Chavez eliminated casinos in Caracas.. which left me online poker. Did my homework, found about this site and as soon I became 18 I signed up and got the free money. Got greedy( no BRM), lost everything and quitted it since I couldn't get some american dollars in my piece of shit 3rd world country. Nevertheless I was studying software enginering so I left my poker dream to die. Venezuela's situation over the last couple of years had me thinking I wasn't gonna graduate since I lost a quarter last year because of the "situation" and now it looks like I'm going to lose another one. It's kind of hard to explain the situation but the point is I'm not graduating which led me to try poker again. So we could say I started my current journey last month with $20 a friend that moved to England gave me. I played NL2 Zoom until I reached $50 about 2 weeks ago and been playing NL5 since then.
Reasons why I'm making this blog
-Well I have to admit I'm a quitter in most of the things I try and I read in an article that doing this would make that a bit harder
-I also have to admit I hate asking for help, but I need it and any advices, opinions or questions you have are not only welcome but also appreciated.
-Keeping track of my progress, goal setting and that sort of stuff.
-I read some other blogs and they were very motivating and I'd like my progress to motivate others like others' progress has motivated me.
-Not sure of how to succeed in my actual goal: Move to Malta and live from poker (which I have calculated to be about 1000 euros monthly for a comfortable life) so I'd need to be playing on NL'X' and have a 'Y' bankroll.I'll try to update at least 3 times a week, maybe more if I have the time.
Current Bankroll: $85
Type of game: NL5 Zoom in Pokerstars (still trying to decide between zoom and regular games, but right now enjoying more Zoom.
Currently playing 2-3 90 minutes sessions a day.
I've read all no limit poker (BSS) articles (white-silver) but I'm re-reading all silver articles again taking notes to remeber them better.
I'll be posting my 1st graph on the next update starting from $85.March Goal: Move up to NL10 Zoom
Right now I'm probably missing some details, but we'll be in touch
PD: Want to make clear any advices, opinions or questions you have are not only welcome but also appreciated.
Hello guys. Today I add another chapter to my poker story. The reason is my university, which is subsidized by the government isn't getting enough funds (just 15% of the budget to be accurate). Minimum wage last year when I started playing was about $70 a month. Now is about $13 a month. So while I wait for the government to give the money (if they give any which eventually I assume they will) I'm back at the tables. I had cashed out everything from Pokerstars by the beginning of this year thinking I wouldn't need it, but well here I am. I had about 200 FPP so I started to play the 20 FPP $500 prize pool tournaments in Pokerstars, I cashed on 3 of them to get me a little more than 4 dollars. I started playing NL2 Zoom Full Ring breaking even trying not to get busted and playing a tournament every time I hit 20 FPP. By now my bankroll is $17.62 after a week of breaking even in the cash games and winning about 8 dollars in the tournaments. I'm planning to keep this same strategy until I reach about $100 bankroll and then I'll plan my next step.
Here is a graph for my 5.7k hands this week:
Spoiler
BR: $17
Goal: $100
Good luck everybody!
Hey mate, glad to see you're back... and sorry for your situation there in Venezuela... I'm your neighbour from Brazil so... I understand what these left-wing socialist piece of ....well, I understand what they are doing.
I'm also grinding NL2 Zoom currently, so we probably found each other on the tables. Anyway, good luck ♦
Welcome back, Luis!
We already talked a bit on my blog, so I don't have too much to add right now.
Looks like you had a pretty solid start, I hope you're still doing well.
Good luck, mate!
Hello everybody! Proud to tell you everyday I get further away from being busted.
Spoiler
Still playing 2 tables of NL2 Full Ring Zoom. Tried to play 4 like I used to last year, but it was a disaster. Too many mistakes. So I'm back playing just 2. I've been noticing it's hard for me to stack people when I don't have the nuts, essentially because I believe if I don't have them and he is calling he might have them. Even when having him in a possible range I've been surprised with what some people call pre-flop. Besides that leak my game is quite solid, the eventual mistake here and there, keeping them to a minimum.
So:
BR: $34
Goal: $100
Also happy to be silver again back here Been wanting to watch a few videos for a while.
Good luck friends!