Big river raise after possible flush completes

If we cbet the flop, he will fold quite a few better hands, like 99, 77-22. If he won't, he might fold them to 2nd barrel or we might hit TP. People are generally folding too much to cbets, so I would go with that, especially when in position. So, I think we can cbet the flop and turn (especially if J, Q, K or A hits). As played, I think we won't ge much fold if we make a delayed cbet on the turn, but the standard line would be to bet the flop and to bet the turn (common reads again). As played, I think we could fold the river vs this size.

With possible straight, flush and given the paired board, I do not like the call on the river. We should fold there.

I don't like your open raise size... especially with your hand (yes, you can vary your open size depeending on your hand in this levels, especially if there are fish left to talk).

+1 to what Alleen86 said, for me you have the better hand most of the time on that board so I'd bet for protection, value, semi-bluff. There are a lot of turns you can 2nd barrell too...

As played, easy fold on the river

Thanks to everyone for their comments, although I'm afraid I don't agree with everything. The blinds are tight, so if we bet larger in pre, we just get more folds, which we don't want. Having the better hand is never a reason to bet. This can't be a semi-bluff because there's no strong draw. It can't be a value bet because we don't get calls from worse hands. It is true that we sometimes get folds from low PPs, if Villain has a fit-or-fold strategy, and also that there are a lot of possible draws here we would like to force to fold and for those reasons I accept that a c-bet (around 35c) would be good here, but there's no way I double-barrel unless I hit TP on the turn.

Originally posted by Lathdari
Thanks to everyone for their comments, although I'm afraid I don't agree with everything. The blinds are tight, so if we bet larger in pre, we just get more folds, which we don't want.

If you had aces you would also open raise to 2bbs in order to get more calls?

Having the better hand is never a reason to bet.

I wouldn't say never, there is a kind of bet where it makes sense to bet with the better hand: "for value"

This can't be a semi-bluff because there's no strong draw.

Something like 76s (not necesarily ) is actually a strong draw vs your hands (which would be, up to the flop, the better hand)

It can't be a value bet because we don't get calls from worse hands.

9X, A♣X:club:

It is true that we sometimes get folds from low PPs, if Villain has a fit-or-fold strategy, and also that there are a lot of possible draws here we would like to force to fold and for those reasons I accept that a c-bet (around 35c) would be good here, but there's no way I double-barrel unless I hit TP on the turn.

Yes, definitely cbet, you have the best hand most of the time, why giving up in this spot?
I would definitely barrell every overcard on the turn (J,Q,K,A) 2 of them for value, 2 of them as a bluff.
If it isn't an overcard I'd either check/fold or consider a triple barrel (depending on the villain).

In relation to c-betting the flop, compare the hand below. If I c-bet here, I never get value from Villain.

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 11.0, Hands: 137
BB: $5.16 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 16, 3B: 18, AF: 2.5, Hands: 32
UTG: $11.20 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 45
UTG+1: $10.01 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 5.0, Hands: 61
UTG+2: $9.70 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 45
MP1: $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 25
MP2: $10.91 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 0.5, Hands: 127
Hero (CO): $10.57 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 3.5, Hands: 3790
BTN: $5.40 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 1.6, Hands: 69

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A K
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55) 9 8 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.55) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.55) Q (2 players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Final Pot: $1.35
BB shows 5 K
Hero shows A K
Hero wins $1.29
(Rake: $0.06)

You are right about the flop. This board hits his calling range.

Originally posted by Alleen86
If we cbet the flop, he will fold quite a few better hands, like 99, 77-22. If he won't, he might fold them to 2nd barrel or we might hit TP. People are generally folding too much to cbets, so I would go with that, especially when in position.

You're right in general, but I think that board TT8:club::club: is pretty bad for a cbet. If it was a rainbow board, I'd be more inclined to bet but now I think he won't fold that many hands. Of course still all those KQo, KJo, AJ/AQo etc stuff will fold but I think check back is just fine too.

If he checks the turn I'd bet, don't wanna see another or Q or J on the river because our hand is most likely the best right now but on the river situation can change really quickly. Unless he's trying to get a cheap showdown with a pocket pair like 55, 77, 99 we're of course beat already. However, I think some of those would bet the turn too since they don't wanna see J, Q, K, A on the river. Our button stealing range should contain a lot of hands that contain those cards, like Jxs, Qxs, Axs, Kxs. Even some off-suit ones.

Btw I think it's better to hide the results of the hand to generate better discussion, since now everyone will see "oh he had slowplayed trips, bad luck" and maybe people don't think about alternative situations anymore so easily. Just my thoughts