Overpair in weird spot

Villain would have 3bet QQ+ pre. Jx is not very likely but still possible. He might do this with any Qx. I would call.

I would shove. I'm sure we get paid by Qx.

Tricky spot, but in reality he doesn't have a J all that often. I would just call, though. It's questionable if he is calling Qx to our raise often enough.

mmu

The hero is on the button making what could be seen as a steal pre-flop. So I could definitely see Qx calling two streets here and making the donk bet on the river thinking that's the only way he's going to get any value from his full house (since Hero is most likely going to check back the River). If it were me and I'm the Hero, I'd call. I'm expecting to see villain show a Queen. Shoving is a possibility too, but I think just calling is best due to the idea that who's calling a shove? AA, QQ, Jx has you beat. Maybe Qx calls...but that's a tough one. I mean, If you had Qx facing a shove on your River donk bet, would you call?

Interesting hand though! Thanks for sharing

You block his busted KT draws, So the most likely hand he has is either AQ or AJ, JT, or other JX hands.and he has less KQ hands also. When he would have AQ himself, i dont think he woould donk that hand, because your range is so wide, But with Jx he can get value from QX and overpairs .

All Jx hands are blocked by the 3 Js on the table. AQ is 12 combos (but we would expect a 3-bet PF and either a donk or a raise OTF). AJ is 4 combos (but we would expect a 3-bet PF and either a donk or a raise OTT). JT is 4 combos (but we expect a fold PF (except for 1 combo of JTs) and either a donk or a raise OTT). KJ is 2 combos (but we expect a donk or a raise OTT). QJ is 3 combos (but we expect a donk or a raise OTF and again OTT). KQ is 6 combos. KT is 8 combos (but I doubt he plays it this way). QTs is 3 combos.

Villain's line is odd and doesn't make too much sense with any hand, but I think KQ and QT are most plausible (he checks the flop and turn because he's concerned about his kicker then OTR the kicker no longer matters so he bets in the hope of occasionally fooling the hero into thinking he has a J). In that scenario he's not thinking about over pairs, so he calls a shove believing that hero is attempting the same trick.

Any way you look at it, not many Jx combos are possible.

Your line of thoughts for excluding Qx and Jx is not ok.
BB is not 3b AQ/ AJ that often.
Jx may not raise postflop as they do not want to scare you.
And many Jx hands are possible!

Originally posted by Alleen86
Tricky spot, but in reality he doesn't have a J all that often. I would just call, though. It's questionable if he is calling Qx to our raise often enough.

There's zero chance he'd fold a queen there.

Very tough, I think this is very small EV difference between calling and shoving, but I would just call, if BB is somewhat good reg, he would probably wouldn't donk this river w Qx, because he can't get call by worse hands and you have KK-AA in your range and he knows that.

In this scenario I called and villain did show up with JTo - it looks like he took this line because he doesn't want a check on the river.

It is a BBvsBU situation, he can have many Jx hands.

Originally posted by nitrol
It is a BBvsBU situation, he can have many Jx hands.

You're not seriously folding KK here?

No, I am against us pushing here...

OK gotcha.

I'm not sure about shoving vs calling. He's not folding Qx and while I agree he has plenty of Jx in his range, he's plenty of Qx too - and there are two more queens than jacks left in the deck.

I am not sure which is max ev here and too lazy to write a long equation (someone please do) (between raising and calling)

I know that I would just call here and play a way ahead way behind game. I really don't like his donk pot bet, though as it is very often the nuts, and that is why I would not raise!

It doesn't matter what decision path you think villain will have taken, he definitely has more Qx combos than Jx combos here, so shove is +EV provided you believe he calls with Qx. I think some people may be misled by the fact that there are many Jx hands possible, when the only thing that matters is how many combos.

I do agree with LuckyManFromLT that if villain is a "somewhat good reg" he probably is not donking the river with Qx, but villain is virtually unknown so there's only about a 5% chance that he falls into that category.

there is a lot more chances that he has a Q than a J and since he won't folder either one it looks obviously EV+ to shove here.